In the Regression Report, I leverage real data to find quarterbacks, wide receivers, running backs, or tight ends with notable data points that suggest impending regression. We will focus on game flow, targets, and team-specific usage in conjunction with our weekly Market Share Report.
For more information on the players highlighted in this article, see our Fantasy Football Dashboard.
Dak Prescott, QB
Regression data point: 45.5 pass attempts per game
The Cowboys have thrown 89 passes and run the ball 45 times through two games. Extrapolating that over an entire season, their 33.6 percent run/pass ratio would have made the Cowboys by far the most pass-happy team in the NFL in 2016. The Broncos sold out to stop Ezekiel Elliott and the run in Week 2, but the Cowboys also trailed for most of the game and could experience poor game script more often this year. Obviously, the pass attempts for Dak will regress if the Cowboys look to get back to their identity as a slow-paced, run-heavy team. In 2016, The Cowboys were first in run/pass ratio and just 51.30 percent of their offensive plays were pass attempts. They also finished 30th in neutral pace. Dallas faces a reeling Arizona team in Week 3 that saw the ninth-fewest passing attempts a year ago.
Julio Jones, WR
Positive regression data points: 6.6 air yards per target, seven targets per game, and 87 receiving yards per game
Given his 33.99 percent ownership in high-stakes contests (per our NFL Ownership Dashboard), Julio was the preferred Sunday night hammer in Week 2 against the Packers. He was one of the highest-rated wide receivers in our NFL Models. Even though his 5-108-0 stat line may have left many wanting more, historically abandoning ship the week after Julio is chalky has been unwise. In the last five games in which Julio was rostered at a rate higher than 25 percent — if we include MNF in the Superdome — he has averaged essentially half the ownership and has gone off for huge scores:
Specifically, his 30.0 percent market share of air yards, seven targets per game (TPG), and 87 yards per game (YPG) are all likely to increase. Julio owned 43.0 percent of the Falcons’ air yards in 2016 and averaged 9.2 targets per game. Over the last half decade, Julio has averaged an unbelievable 100.8 yards receiving per game (per our Falcons Fantasy Preview). It’s possible Julio isn’t being featured, but Steve Sarkisian tends to make a concerted and relentless effort to play to the strengths of his teams, so that isn’t likely to continue much longer. A Mount St. Julio eruption is imminent, and it could certainly come this week against the Lions and their 32nd-ranked pass defense (per DVOA).
Demaryius Thomas, WR
Positive regression data point: Zero red zone targets
Trevor Siemian has 13 red zone attempts through two games and zero have gone to Thomas. Over the past three seasons, Thomas has been the top red zone target in this offense:
- 2016: 18 red zone targets (T-12th), 28.1% red zone target share (T-6th), 11 targets inside the 10-yard line (T-3rd)
- 2015: 19 (T-11th), 27.5% (9th), eight (T-18th)
- 2014: 39 (1st), 36.8% (2nd), 18 (T-1st)
Bennie Fowler and Emmanuel Sanders each had multi-touchdown games to start the season, but I would expect Thomas to get more involved in the red zone in Week 3. They face a Bills squad with a new front-seven scheme and an entirely new secondary that has yet to be seriously tested. The Broncos’ skill position players could easily go overlooked as road favorites implied for just 21.5 points.
Jason Witten, TE
Regression data points: 11 targets per game, tied for second in the NFL with four red zone targets
Per the Week 3 Market Share Report, Witten owns a 25.29 percent target market share through two weeks, leading all tight ends except Travis Kelce (27.87 percent).
Over the last five years, Witten has averaged 6.84 TPG and 0.8 red zone targets per game. Since 2014, when Scott Linehan instituted a slow-paced, run-heavy system, Witten has been given 96.3 targets per year and has averaged a 70-696.3-3.7 line. He is currently tied for the second-most red zone targets in the league, but with such a small sample, that number is likely to regress to his historical mean. The most consistent fantasy tight ends can hit value through target volume, but most of their upside comes from playing in good offenses or from significant red zone involvement. Witten checks both boxes at the moment but is performing well above his career averages through two weeks. Tight ends tend to be used in the flex position on DraftKings far less often than RBs and WRs, so players like Witten may have some appeal from a Plus/Minus and roster construction perspective.
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