This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze the relevant players from the best NFL games of the week. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis by looking at the dynamics of expected game flow, pace, Vegas lines, and advanced analytics.
Washington Redskins vs. Oakland Raiders
The Redskins skew toward the pass: They ranked top-10 in yards per play each of the last three seasons, as well as eighth in pass/run ratio last year at just the 26th-fastest neutral pace (Football Outsiders). The loss of Sean McVay is significant — he was hired as the Rams’ head coach this offseason — and Jay Gruden will transition back to calling plays.
Last season was the first time in 10 seasons that a Todd Downing-coached offense didn’t finish in the top-14 in pass/run ratio. The Raiders likely don’t plan on straying too far from the conservative and balanced West Coast offense; they’ve ranked 17th and 22nd in neutral pace over the past two seasons.
This game will likely move at a below-average pace, but neither defense is elite. The over/under is currently at 53.5 points — the highest mark of the week — and the spread favors the Raiders on the road by just three points. Oakland was 10-6 against the spread (ATS) in 2016 — tied for fourth-best in the NFL — and are coming off a decisive 45-20 victory in their home opener versus the Jets. Derek Carr and the offense might not exceed 40 points again, but they should keep rolling against a Redskins team that has given up the sixth-most total yards through two weeks and allowed the eighth-most through the air in 2016. Per our Week 3 Vegas Report, the Raiders are one of only three teams to hit their implied totals in both weeks.
Due to recency bias, the Carr-Michael Crabtree stack will likely be chalky. Carr has a fantasy points correlation value of 0.40 with Crabtree and a 0.46 ownership correlation. One way to differentiate this stack could be to roll it back with Jordan Reed on the other side of the ball. Here are the correlation values for actual fantasy points versus the ownership values (based on positions):
The ownership correlation between Carr, Crabtree, and Reed could be lower than traditional stacks, despite the fact that they have very correlated outcomes.
Kirk Cousins, QB
Regardless of his subpar 4.1 percent touchdown rate, Cousins is coming off a great season where he finished with the third-most passing yards per game (307.2), third-highest yards per attempt (8.1), and fifth-highest quarterback rating (72.1). In similar situations as a home underdog, Cousins has previously produced 20.62 DraftKings PPG with a +4.83 Plus/Minus at 3.2 percent ownership (via our Trends tool).
Terrelle Pryor, WR
His 38.0 percent market share of air yards is top-10 in the NFL through two weeks, but Pryor has struggled to find chemistry with Cousins with just a 53.3 percent catch rate.
Jordan Reed, TE
Be sure to monitor his chest injury throughout the week with our NFL Week 3 Injury Dashboard. The Raiders allowed the ninth-most DraftKings points to the tight end position in 2016. Cousins has targeted tight ends on 24.7 percent of his throws over the past year.
Derek Carr, QB
Carr was lights out in Week 2 with an 82.14 percent completion rate, three touchdown passes, and zero interceptions. If this game indeed shoots out, Carr will certainly be involved.
Amari Cooper, WR
He will likely be shadowed by Josh Norman (per our NFL Matchups Dashboard), but it’s a matchup Cooper could win at reduced ownership. He is currently tied for the second-most targets inside the 10-yard line with four through two weeks.
Michael Crabtree, WR
Three touchdowns will be difficult to repeat this week, but Crabtree is expected to run the majority of his routes against Bashaud Breeland, Pro Football Focus’ 54th-highest rated cornerback through two weeks.
Marshawn Lynch, RB
The trio of terror for 2016 is back. Lynch did get in the end zone in his return to Oakland, but the Raiders look to be capping his workload. He played just 40 percent of the offensive snaps in Week 2 after playing just 47 percent the week before.
Detroit Lions vs. Atlanta Falcons
Jim Caldwell’s offenses skew heavily toward the pass. In his seven full years as head coach or offensive coordinator, never have they been outside the top-12 in pass/run ratio; they have an average rank of 5.3 of 32 teams. Over the last three years, the Lions have averaged rankings of 3.7 and 28.7 in pass/run ratio and rushing attempts. Over the last three years, they’ve been 25.7 of 32 in pace, which in turn has caused the team to finish in the top-10 in passing attempts only once in the last three years. The Lions will advance the ball through the air and take their time doing it.
The Falcons are transitioning to Steve Sarkisian’s leadership, and he has historically made a concerted effort to play to the strengths of his teams. It’s very possible that he could rely on the Falcons’ running game in 2017, as they were sixth in run/pass ratio under Shanahan last year.
The over/under sits at 49.5 points — second-highest of the week — featuring two teams implied for top-12 point totals and a tight spread of just three points in favor of the Falcons on the road. Both passing offenses are usually prolific regardless of matchup, and the Detroit and Atlanta secondaries were top-five in passing touchdowns allowed in 2017; this game could easily shoot out.
With the Lions on a short week, going back to the well with Julio Jones could pay off, but that doesn’t mean you have to stack him with Matt Ryan. Rolling back your Matt Stafford stacks with Julio gives you a lot more flexibility in lineup construction, and given the Falcons’ struggles against pass-catching backs, Theo Riddick could be a part of stacks as well. Players from this game could over-owned, but game stacks are probably underutilized in general, so if you want to differentiate from the chalk, you could also add Golden Tate:
The QB-RB2 stack has an actual points correlation value of 0.20, but Riddick sees above-average usage in the red zone. A Lions-Falcons game stack could lead you to a more unique lineup. After lineups lock, visit our DFS Contests Dashboard and use our Stack Seeker tool to identify the top contrarian stack of the week.
Matt Stafford, QB
Discounting the four 2016 games in which Stafford was injured and Jim Bob Cooter’s first game as offensive coordinator in 2015, Stafford has averaged a strong 20.86 DraftKings PPG, a 66.6 percent completion rate, 7.3 yards per attempt, 1.76 touchdowns per game, and 0.56 interceptions per game in this offensive scheme. The Falcons allowed the third-most DraftKings points to quarterbacks in 2016.
Golden Tate, WR
Surprisingly, Randall Cobb dropped just 6-60 on nine targets last week, but Tate should shred Brian Poole in the slot.
Theo Riddick, RB
He will be chalky, but rolling your game stacks back with Riddick makes a ton of sense against a Falcons team ranked 25th in pass DVOA to the running back position in 2016.
Matt Ryan, QB
He’s expensive with the fourth- and third-highest QB salary on DraftKings & FanDuel, respectively. That said, Ryan has one of the week’s highest ceilings in our Models facing a Lions team that was 31st in touchdowns allowed through the air last year and surrendered the second-most DraftKings PPG to quarterbacks.
Julio Jones, WR
Over the last half decade, Julio has averaged an unbelievable 100.8 yards receiving per game. The only thing holding him back from being the best wide receiver in the league is probably a lack of touchdowns. The Lions allowed the fifth-most touchdowns to wide receivers in 2016.
Good luck, and be sure to read our positional breakdowns later in the week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading NFL News feed:
