After a stacked Week 2 slate featuring four games in the 4 p.m. Eastern window with totals above 50-points, Week 3 features prime matchups and high-powered offenses in ideal situations throughout the slate.
Check out a few games to target in Week 3 and a few where you might want to proceed with caution.
Also, don’t forget to check out our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models.
Games to Target
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs
This Week 3 matchup between the Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs has shootout written all over it. According to PFF, the Chargers and Chiefs grade out as the 24th and 32nd defenses, respectively. With a 55.5-point total, the second-highest at open, look for quarterbacks Justin Herbert and Patrick Mahomes to exceed expectation, leading the eighth and ninth-ranked offenses.
Herbert led the Chargers to a 20-17 win over the Dallas Cowboys in Week 2, throwing for 338 yards and one touchdown (two interceptions) against a Cowboys defense ranked 22nd in DVOA. The second-year quarterback should keep his foot on the gas in a Chargers offense that ranks eight in pace, running a play at a breakneck 18.4-second pace (Per the RotoViz Game Pace App).
With a 63%/37% pass-to-run split, look for Keenan Allen and Mike Williams to benefit from Herbert’s tendency to throw the ball, especially against a Chiefs defense that has had difficulty stopping the pass, ranking 25th in pass DVOA.
As one of the more efficient quarterbacks in the league, Mahomes should have no problem distributing the ball to his primary targets, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, against a Chargers defense ranking 16th in pass DVOA. Facing a 21st PFF-ranked Baltimore Ravens defense in a Week 2 36-35 loss, Mahomes threw for 343 yards and three touchdowns, completing 77% of his passes.
Dating back to last season, Mahomes has the strongest correlation to Kelce in the receiving corps at 0.38 and has targeted the tight end at least seven times in 18 of the last 19 games, including the postseason.
Like the Chargers, the Chiefs opted for a 62%/38% pass-to-run play calling script last week, running a play every 23.9 seconds, signaling viability for various stacking configurations and bringing-back options to differentiate rosters.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Rams
Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady seems to score at will, given the weapons available at his disposal. In a Week 2 48-25 win over the Atlanta Falcons, Brady threw for 276 yards and five touchdowns, making him the league leader in touchdown passes through the first two weeks with nine. He’ll face a Los Angeles Rams defense that ranks 11th in DVOA, limiting the Indianapolis Colts to 344 yards in a 27-24 win.
Using an extremely tilted 77%/23% pass-to-runs split, expect Brady to frequently utilize Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Rob Gronkowski in the passing game. With the Buccaneers opening as a one-point underdog in a matchup with a 55-point total, expect Brady to keep his foot on the gas, leading an offense that averages 17.2 seconds per snap, the 11th-fastest in the league.
Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford has put up dominating numbers with his new team. In a Week 2 win, Stafford threw for 2,789 yards and two touchdowns against a Colts defense that ranks 25th in DVOA. Stafford will go up against a Buccaneers defense that ranks 23rd in pass DVOA, giving up 348 yards to the Atlanta Falcons in Week 2.
Using a 55%/45% pass-to-run split, the Rams also have the fifth-highest no-huddle rate of 16%, despite being the fourth slowest team in the league, calling a play every 25.7 seconds. Expect Stafford to use the hurry-up offense to keep up with the speed of Tampa Bay, targeting his primary weapons Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods and Tyler Higbee.
Proceed with Caution
New York Jets at Denver Broncos
The Jets have one of the lowest defensive grades in the league, ranking 29th at PFF, and they match up against a fourth-ranked Denver Broncos offense. With a total of 41.5-points at open, this game has the lowest total of the week.
Zach Wilson threw for 210 yards and four interceptions in a 25-6 loss to the New England Patriots in Week 2 and looks to have a similar matchup against a Denver Broncos defense with the fourth-best pass coverage according to PFF that limited the Jacksonville Jaguars and rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence to 189 yards.
Using a 59%/41% pass-to-run ratio, the Jets grade out as the second-worst pass offense, with most of the target share going toward Braxton Berrios. In two weeks, Berrios has been targeted 18 times, catching seven passes for 73 yards. However, if wide receiver Jamison Crowder is active for Week 3, expect a large share of targets to go his way.
Teddy Bridgewater has found a new home in Denver. Tied with Tom Brady, Trevor Lawrence and Kyler Murray, Bridgewater is second in pass attempts over 20 yards, completing 100% of his attempts. Bridgewater leads a Broncos offense that ran a play every 30.2 seconds, the sixth slowest, but ran the third-most plays with 75 in a 23-13 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars.
In the win, Bridgewater threw for 328 yards and two touchdowns. As 11.5-point home favorites, expect additional work for running backs Melvin Gordon III and Javonte Williams. They look to have more distribution in the backfield to run out the clock, especially if Denver leads in the fourth quarter.
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers
With a 44.5-point total at open, this classic AFC North matchup looks to be a slugfest. The Bengals, coming off a 20-17 loss to the Chicago Bears, ran 53 plays, the seventh-fewest of the week, calling a play every 30.7 seconds, the third slowest. Using a 62%/38% pass-to-run offensive split, quarterback Joe Burrow threw for 207 yards and two touchdowns against a Chicago Bears defense that ranks ninth in defensive DVOA.
The Bengals passing attack will again face a difficult task this week against the Steelers, who rank the 14th in pass DOVA and grade out as the ninth-best defense per PFF. As the fourth-ranked rushing offense by Football Outsiders, the Steelers should be a tough matchup for running back Joe Mixon. Pittsburgh’s defense limited lead Raiders’ rusher Peyton Barber to 32 yards on 13 carries.
On the opposite end, the Steelers’ offense will go against a Bengals defense that ranks seventh in DVOA, limiting a Chicago Bears offense to 206 yards in a 17-20 loss in Week 2. Pittsburgh ran 51 plays in a Week 2 26-17 loss to the Las Vegas Raiders, using a 73%/27% pass-to-run split with a 16% no-huddle rate.
Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger threw for 295 yards and one touchdown, facing a Raiders’ defense that grades out as the sixth-best in the league. According to Football Outsiders, the Bengals also rank as the second-best run defense, making things difficult for rookie running back Najee Harris.
