In the weekly Fantasy Trends, we leverage the Trends tool to find quarterbacks, wide receivers, and running backs with notable data points for the upcoming main slate. For more of our weekly football content, visit our NFL homepage.
Home Underdog Quarterbacks
Nine visiting teams are favored by Vegas this week. With that in mind, let’s explore the upside in the home underdog on DraftKings.
Trend
- The team’s implied total is 22 or more points
- The team is a home underdog
Results
- Expected Points: 15.13
- Actual Points: 16.27
- Plus/Minus: +1.14
- Consistency Rating: 56.2 percent
- Ownership Rate: 4.4 percent
Matthew Stafford vs. Atlanta Falcons ($6,200 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel)
As a home underdog with an implied team total of at least 22 points, Matthew Stafford has averaged 22.54 DraftKings points per game (PPG), with a 75 percent Consistency Rating and Plus/Minus of +5.46. The Falcons-Lions game has an over/under of 51 points, and the Lions currently own a 24.0-point implied total as 3.0-point home dogs. Through two starts, Stafford has been in solid form, holding a 71.0 percent completion rate on 62 attempts with six touchdowns and ranking fourth to start the season 0.54 DraftKings points per opportunity. The Lions could have a pass-heavy game script for much of the contest, and in 2016 when the Lions were tied or trailing they threw the ball on 67 percent of plays, ranking seventh in the league. Last year the Falcons allowed top-three fantasy marks to opposing quarterbacks with 20.8 DraftKings and 19.9 FanDuel PPG. He currently has the highest ownership projections in our Models.
Kirk Cousins vs. Oakland Radiers ($6100 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel)
Although Kirk Cousins has disappointed this season with his -5.31 DraftKings Plus/Minus, he’s in a potential bounceback spot this week. His Week 3 matchup with Oakland owns the highest over/under on the slate at 55.0 points, and quarterbacks in games with a total as high as 54.0 have seen a +1.45 Plus/Minus with a 55.8 percent Consistency Rating. As a home underdog with an implied team total of at least 22.0 points, Cousins has averaged 21.44 DraftKings PPG and a +4.29 Plus/Minus. Trailing for most of Week 1, the Redskins threw the ball on 72 percent of plays, nine percentage points above the league average. Like Stafford, Cousins could see increased volume in a high-scoring home game. Oakland’s defense last year was 25th against the pass in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). For more on Cousins, see our Week 3 quarterback breakdown.
Deep Threat Wide Receivers
Because receptions are worth less on FanDuel than DraftKings, deep threat receivers with touchdown upside are more valuable on FanDuel. Let’s look for receivers with high marks in adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A) and Upside Rating.
Trend
- The team’s implied total is 22 or more points
- The player has a minimum 10 percent market share
- The player has a minimum 12 AY/A
- The player has a minimum Upside Rating of 25 percent
Results
- Expected points: 9.91
- Actual points: 11.47
- Plus/Minus: +1.55
- Consistency Rating: 52.9 percent
- Ownership Rate: 9.7 percent
Kenny Stills @ New York Jets ($4400 DraftKings, $5100 FanDuel)
Last year Kenny Stills led the Dolphins with 1,161 air yards and a 14.3-yard average depth of target (aDOT). In Week 2, he accounted for 34 percent of Miami’s air yards market share. He’s tough to roster with confidence given his limited volume, but Stills has an ideal matchup this week against the Jets, who have allowed a 67 percent success rate on passing plays, dead last in the NFL.
Kenny Golladay vs. Atlanta Falcons ($4600 DraftKings, $5900 FanDuel)
Kenny Golladay exploded in Week 1 for two touchdowns in his rookie debut. While his 58.6 percent snap rate leaves a lot to be desired, his 15.6 AY/A is elite and team-leading 35 percent share of the air yards is encouraging. Golladay has been used most out wide on the left side of the formation (43 percent, Pro Football Focus), so he’s expected to be matched up for most of the day with cornerback Robert Alford, who owns a 35.2 PFF grade and is six inches shorter and 30 pound lighter than Golladay.
Lower-Risk Wide Receivers
While the previous trend targets high-risk receivers, this trend screens for DraftKings receivers with less risk, a sizable market share, and consistent targets.
Trend
- The team’s implied total is 22 or more points
- The player has a minimum of 7 targets in the past fantasy year
- The player has a minimum 20 percent target market share
- The player has averaged more than 0.5 red zone opportunities per game in the past fantasy year
The Result
- Expected points: 14.53
- Actual points: 16.30
- Plus/Minus: +1.77
- Consistency Rating: 50.5 percent
- Ownership Rate: 11.2 percent
A.J. Green @ Green Bay Packers ($8100 DraftKings, $7500 FanDuel)
Even with his -5.17 Plus/Minus to date, A.J. Green has enjoyed a 27 percent target share on nine targets per game to start the season. He goes to Green Bay this week after two challenging matchups with Baltimore and Houston. The Green Bay secondary has allowed a 55 percent success rate (24th) to wide receivers this year and an average of 9.4 yards per attempt (28th). Last year the Packers ranked 28th in pass DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers, and Green has PFF’s most receiver-friendly matchup this week against cornerback Damarious Randall. For more on Green, see our Week 3 wide receiver breakdown.
Terrelle Pryor vs. Oakland Raiders ($5,900 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel)
As mentioned previous, the Redskins are home underdogs in the game with the slate’s highest total at 55.0 points. Pryor leads all Redskins receivers with a 22 percent target share and 78.4 percent snap rate. He was targeted 11 times for 166 air yards in Week 1, when the team trailed starting in the first quarter, and he makes for an strong stacking partner with Cousins.
Good luck this week, and be sure to use our Tools to research these players for yourself.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NFL news feed:
