The Models are the lifeblood for our NFL product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: things like salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our Models and take a look at some of the players with the highest ceilings, value ratings, and projected ownership for the NFL Week 2 slate.
Quarterback
Top Ceiling: Russell Wilson vs. DAL — $7,300 on DraftKings, $8,700 on FanDuel
It appears as though Pete Carroll and Brian Schottenheimer have officially decided to #LetRussCook in 2020. He is off to a tremendous start, logging 610 passing yards and a whopping nine passing touchdowns through his first two games.
One of those matchups was also vs. the Patriots, who were the best team in football last year in terms of pass defense. They allowed just four passing touchdowns to WRs in 16 games last season, and Wilson matched that total in just a single game in Week 2.
Overall, Wilson has posted an average Plus/Minus of +15.45 through his first two contests, and he’s scored at least 31.78 DraftKings points in both games.
He takes the field in a solid spot vs. the Cowboys in Week 3. The Cowboys defense was lit up for 39 points by the Falcons in Week 2, and Seattle leads all teams with an implied team total of 30.75 points on the main slate. Wilson has never had a mark above 30.0 during his entire career, so this is a potential smash spot for him.
Top Value: Kyler Murray vs. DET — $6,800 on DraftKings, $8,400 on FanDuel
Murray stands out as the top value at the QB position this week, and frankly it’s not all that close. He owns a projected Plus/Minus of +6.00 on DraftKings and +6.08 on FanDuel, both of which are the top marks in our NFL Models.
He’s taking on a Lions’ defense that was torched for 42 points by the Packers last week, and they continue to deal with injuries in their secondary. Desmond Trufant was able to return to practice on Thursday after missing Week 2 with an injury, but Justin Coleman remains on the IR.
The biggest development for Murray’s fantasy stock has been his increased willingness to run this season. He logged 91 yards and a touchdown on the ground in Week 1 and followed that up with 67 yards and two TDs in Week 2. Murray has more than doubled his average of 34.0 rushing yards per game during his rookie season, and his three TDs through two weeks puts him just one shy of his mark from all of last year.
Top Ownership: Dak Prescott @ SEA — $7,200 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel
Three QBs are projected for at least 9-12% ownership on DraftKings this week: Wilson, Murray, and Prescott. Prescott will take the field as an underdog vs. the Seahawks, but that is projected to be one of the top fantasy games of the week. The total on that contests currently sits at a whopping 56.5 points, and it has already increased by one point since opening.
Prescott is coming off a monster performance in a comeback win vs. the Falcons last week, passing for 450 yards and one TD and adding three TDs on the ground. Seattle allowed a huge performance to Cam Newton last week, and the Cowboys’ offense has the potential to be much more explosive than New England’s.
Running Back
Top Ceiling: Ezekiel Elliott @ SEA — $8,300 on DraftKings, $9,000 on FanDuel
Week 2 delivered some serious carnage at the RB position. Saquon Barkley is done for the season after tearing his ACL. Christian McCaffrey will miss at least the next three weeks with a high ankle sprain. Raheem Mostert isn’t expected to play after spraining his MCL. Combine that with the injuries from Week 1, and the RBs are dropping like flies to start the 2020 season.
Ellliott is one of the last true bell-cow backs remaining, and he’s scored at least 23.2 DraftKings points in each of his first two games. He’s seen plenty of work as a runner and a receiver – he logged 25 touches in Week 1 and 28 touches in Week 2 – and he leads the league with seven carries from inside the five yard line. Prescott stole three TDs on the ground last week vs. the Falcons, but those could very easily find their way over to Elliott moving forward.
Top Value: Miles Sanders vs. CIN — $6,400 on DraftKings, $7,400 on FanDuel
Sanders came into the season with big expectations, and he delivered in his first game of the year. He finished with 21.1 DraftKings points thanks to 20 carries and seven targets in the passing game. The Eagles were also trailing for most of that contest vs. the Rams, so he could have better performances in better game scripts.
This week vs. the Bengals would definitely qualify. The Eagles are currently favored by 4.5 points at home, and the Bengals defense was abused on the ground last week by the Browns. They finished with 215 rushing yards and three TDs in that contest, and they currently rank just 25th in Football Outsiders’ rush defense DVOA. The Eagles’ offensive line has been crushed by injuries to start the year, but this is about as good as it gets from a matchup perspective.
Top Ownership: Jonathan Taylor vs. NYJ — $7,000 on DraftKings, $6,700 on FanDuel
Taylor is projected for massive ownership on this slate, particularly on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 99%. That said, it’s pretty easy to see why. The Colts are taking on the Jets, who are quite possibly the worst team in football at the moment. They are favored by a whopping 11 points, and that has historically led to success for RBs. Players who are projected for at least 10 points in our NFL Models have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.50 when favored by 10-14 points (per the Trends tool).
Taylor is projected for well over 10 points as the primary RB for the Colts. He saw a 26 carries last week vs. the Vikings – including 18 in the first half – and he figures to handle most of the backfield touches with Marlon Mack out for the year.
Wide Receiver
Top Ceiling: DeAndre Hopkins vs. DET — $7,900 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel
Most WRs tend to struggle after changing teams, but Hopkins has gotten off to a flying start in his first two games with the Cardinals. He leads the league with 25 targets this season, and he’s converted those targets into 22 catches for 219 yards and a touchdown.
Hopkins is expected to have a significant matchup advantage this week vs. the shorthanded Lions. He currently owns a 25% edge vs. CB Amani Oruwariye according to Pro Football Focus, and the Lions’ matchup results in a +1.1 Opponent Plus/Minus for the Cardinals’ WRs overall.
Top Value: Braxton Berrios @ IND — $3,600 on DraftKings, $5,100 on FanDuel
Most of the plays in this article have been pretty chalky, but Berrios should command very minimal ownership this week. He’s currently projected for 0-1% ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel despite the fact that he could see a huge workload for the Jets. Their top three pass catchers are all expected to be out this week, and even Le’Veon Bell won’t be available to snag passes out of the backfield. That leaves Berrios and Chris Hogan as really the only viable options in their passing game.
Berrios was on the field for 71% of the Jets’ offensive snaps in Week 2 and turned in a very respectable 17.9 DraftKings points in that contest. He remains priced near the minimum at just $3,600 for this week’s matchup vs. the Colts, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 89%. Ultimately, Berrios is a strong option for cash games if you’re looking to spend up on the rest of your roster.
Top Ownership: Dionte Johnson vs. HOU — $5,400 on DraftKings, $6,300 on FanDuel
Is there a new WR1 in Pittsburgh? If the first two weeks are any indication, that answer could be yes.
Johnson currently leads the Steelers with 23 targets, and Hopkins is the only player in football who has seen more targets to start the 2020 season. He wasn’t able to make the most of his opportunities in Week 1, but he bounced back with eight catches for 92 yards and a touchdown in Week 2. He’s simply too cheap if he’s going to continue to see that many passes for the Steelers.
Johnson should also benefit from Ben Roethlisberger’s drastic home/road splits throughout his career. Big Ben has historically averaged 24.45 DraftKings points per game when playing in Pittsburgh but just 18.13 DraftKings points when playing on the road. Those splits obviously have an impact on his pass catchers as well.
Tight End
Top Ceiling: Darren Waller @ NE — $5,700 on DraftKings, $6,600 on FanDuel
This is a pretty weak slate at the top of the TE position. Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews are both squaring off on Monday Night Football, and who knows how effective George Kittle will be if he is able to suit up. That leaves Waller as the clear top option on the main slate.
He was a workhorse for the Raiders in their Week 2 win over the Saints, finishing with 16 targets, 12 catches, 103 yards, and one touchdown. He was also on the field for 74 of 76 offensive snaps, which is a major outlier for a tight end.
Waller takes the field in an interesting spot vs. the Patriots. Their passing defense was elite vs. WRs last season, but they were a bit more pedestrian against the TE position. They also no longer have Patrick Chung or Donta Hightower, both of whom opted out due to COVID concerns.
That said, you Waller’s status for Week 3 is still a bit uncertain. He’s missed practice each of the past two days, so hopefully he can get in at least a limited session on Friday.
Top Value: Logan Thomas @ CLE — $3,700 on DraftKings, $4,900 on FanDuel
Thomas was a major X-factor entering the season for Washington. The converted QB garnered rave reviews at training camp and has excellent size and athletic measurables per Player Profiler.
So far, he has done nothing to diminish that optimism.
He’s logged at least eight targets in each of his first two games, which gives him one of the largest target market shares at the position. Only Waller, Kelce, and Mike Gesicki totalled more targets through his team’s first two games this season.
Thomas takes the field this week in a very exploitable matchup vs. the Browns. Their linebacking corps has been dreadful to start the season, giving Thomas an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.2 on DraftKings. It remains to be seen if Dwayne Haskins can take advantage of that matchup – Washington’s implied team total of 18.75 is the third-lowest mark on the slate – but there is a lot to like about Thomas in Week 3.
Top Ownership: Dallas Goedert vs. CIN — $4,900 on DraftKings, $5,200 on FanDuel
Goedert should be extremely chalky this week on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 99%. He has been more involved than expect through the first two weeks, currently ranking tied for fourth in targets at the TE position, and that doesn’t figure to change with Jalen Raegor hitting the IR. The Bengals are another team that has a deficiency at the LB position, so Goedert should be able to do some damage.
