I Said No More Intros
I know, I said we weren’t doing intros anymore, but I like a little appetizer before we get to the meal.
I’m kidding. When I go out, I just order two apps as my meal. And then I sit there and ignore the waitstaff as I fool around with our Trends tool.
Let’s get to it.
Quarterback: Ryan Tannehill
Projected Ownership: Nine to 12 percent (FD)
Tannehill is tied with Philip Rivers and Andrew Luck for the highest QB FantasyLabs ownership projection on FanDuel at nine to 12 percent. All of the other remaining QBs are currently projected in our Player Models to be in less than nine percent of lineups.
If you are simply looking for another option, Ben Roethlisberger has a higher ceiling projection than Tannehill at only two to four percent projected ownership. However, Roethlisberger is $800 more expensive.
There are other options near Tannehill’s salary of $7,400. Both Joe Flacco ($7,600) and Kirk Cousins ($7,700) currently have FantasyLabs ownership projections of two to four percent and similar point-per-dollar projections to Tannehill’s.
Here is the thing, though: I don’t think any of that truly matters. QB ownership is quite spread out this early in the season, partly because (with no teams yet on bye) we have a 28-quarterback pool in the main slate. With 11 of those 28 players currently projected to score at least 19 FD points this week, I don’t think it is necessary right now to take a huge stand solely based on projected ownership for QBs. Making game-theory decisions at other positions and rostering the QB who correlates best with your lineup might be a fine strategy, especially early in the season.
Running Back: Charles Sims
Projected Ownership: 26-30 percent (DK)
Sims is very much a player you might want to roster this week regardless of ownership. In that case, I don’t hate pairing him with Jameis Winston. I know that a QB-RB stack isn’t the most popular of options (that’s kind of the point), but Sims and Winston actually share a positive correlation with one another, per Sims’ FantasyLabs Player Card.
Sims is a pass-catching back, so the positive correlation isn’t too surprising. Still, I don’t love the upside in a matchup versus the Rams in which the Bucs are currently five-point favorites.
There is another option if you were looking to get off of Sims, but it involves being available on Sunday. What I mean by “being available” is simply being able to track the FantasyLabs News page to see if anything has happened with the Seattle RB situation (or any situation for that matter). As of Friday morning, Thomas Rawls has missed two straight practices. Head coach Pete Carroll has stated that Rawls is expected to play, but if news comes out that he will be limited or out then Christine Michael should be an excellent pivot off of Sims.
Michael is currently projected to be in two to four percent of lineups. That number is certainly going to change if news comes out that Rawls is limited, but how drastically it changes is going to be directly correlated to how late that news breaks. The Seahawks are currently 10-point favorites over the 49ers, and the game is scheduled to kickoff at 4:05 pm ET as one of five afternoon games. Tampa Bay is also scheduled to start at that time, so keep Michael in mind as a late-swap option if you feel the need to get off of Sims as the first slate of games winds down.
I like the option of Michael as a late-swap pivot away from Sims even if Rawls is playing. If your lineup looks dead near the end of the early games, Michael might give it a little more life than the super-chalk Sims would.
Wide Receiver: Jarvis Landry
Projected Ownership: 21-25 percent (FD)
Make no mistake about it, Landry is the target monster in Miami. His 13 Week 2 targets made it six straight games of at least 10 targets dating back to last season. There is no reason to think that he won’t continue to see a voluminous role in the passing game: He has accounted for 31.88 percent of the team’s market share of targets this season, per Bryan Mears’ Week 2 Opportunity Report. The most-targeted Miami players after Landry are DeVante Parker (17.4 percent), Jordan Cameron (14.5 percent) and Kenny Stills (13.0 percent).
Looking at targets is a good starting point when searching for same-team leverage plays. Parker saw 13 targets in his debut game last week versus the Patriots, while Stills was targeted on only four occasions. Both Stills (two to four percent) and Parker (five to eight percent) are currently projected in our Player Models to have ownership significantly lower than Landry’s, and they offer excellent leverage off of him on FD, where scoring is less dependent on accumulating receptions and more on finding the end zone.
If you don`t feel comfortable with either of those two options, it is worth noting that Cameron, who currently has a FantasyLabs ownership projection of two to four percent, has accounted for 17.4 percent of the Dolphins receiving touchdowns over the past 12 months — just as Landry has.
I won’t waste much time on this, but Odell Beckham Jr. is worth a look if you’re searching for a low-owned option on DK. Josh Norman is scary and it doesn’t appear that the Giants will move OBJ around to avoid him, but throwing some tournament exposure to an elite talent in a poor matchup is an excellent way to access high upside at low ownership. OBJ currently has a FantasyLabs ownership projection of five to eight percent.
Tight End: Delanie Walker
Projected Ownership: 17-20 percent (DK)
This makes two-consecutive weeks in which Delanie is the chalk DK TE option. There are a few easy ways to get off of Walker in tournaments, one of which is to leverage off of him with some of his pass-catching teammates.
Tajae Sharpe and Rishard Matthews are currently projected to be in five to eight and zero to one percent of lineups. Tajae has seen nearly double the targets that Rishard has (18 to 10), but Sharpe has also experienced a rapid and upward Salary Change. He is now $1,700 more expensive than he was in Week 1, and Matthews is still only $3,300 on DK. Sharpe is the man getting the targets, but Matthews is there if you need the savings.
Another option would be to look at another TE all together. Well, there happens to be a TE currently with floor, median, and ceiling projections that are each 0.3 points higher than Delanie’s, and that TE has a FantasyLabs ownership projection of only five to eight percent. That player is Antonio Gates, who currently is carrying six Pro Trends into the Chargers’ matchup with the Colts. Not only does Gates present you with a lower-owned option at TE, but he also serves as leverage off of teammate Melvin Gordon, who is currently projected to be in 21 to 25 percent of lineups this weekend.
Best of luck this weekend!
The Week 3 NFL Dashboard
For more information on other Week 3 plays, see the positional breakdowns and team previews on our NFL dashboard.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
