WR/CB Matchups
After spending the offseason trying to predict as many roles as possible for wide receivers and cornerbacks, Week 1 finally provided us with some answers. Now we get a chance to head into Week 2 with a lot more clarity on roles and matchups. Let’s break down this week’s WR/CB matchups using our Matchups tool as a guide.
The Studs
Odell Beckham, Jr. vs. P.J. Williams and Ken Crawley
After breaking his fibula this weekend, Delvin Breaux is likely to be replaced by rookie Ken Crawley. OBJ played the Saints in 2015 and absolutely torched them for an insane 8-130-3 line. The Saints’ passing defense does not look any better so far after their abysmal 2015 season, as they already rank 28th in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) metric. Beckham should eat.
A.J. Green vs. Steelers Secondary
A.J. Green has performed extremely well against the Steelers, averaging 3.02 more PPR points per game against Pittsburgh than average.
With the loss of Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu, Green saw 13 targets on Sunday and looks to be a target monster. On Sunday, Pittsburgh’s secondary surrendered 102 yards to DeSean Jackson. To top it off, Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed 4.4 DraftKings points over expectations to WRs, the highest mark on the slate.
Julio Jones vs. Sean Smith
According to our Matchups tool, Julio projects to run the majority of his routes against Sean Smith. Interestingly, Smith was burned for a 98-yard touchdown pass last weekend, and was then benched for poor performance. Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric currently ranks the Raiders as the third-worst pass defense; they have allowed a +2.5 DraftKings Plus/Minus to wide receivers in the past year.
DeAndre Hopkins vs. Marcus Peters
Peters was expected to take a major leap this year, but he allowed Keenan Allen to catch 6-of-7 targets for 63 yards before Allen’s injury. While this is mostly a neutral matchup for Hopkins, it is important to tread carefully with him as he was out-targeted 11-to-8 by Will Fuller in Week 1. Hopkins is the second-highest rated receiver in the CSURAM88 FanDuel Model. Just remember, Hopkins’ value was greatly diminished as his target volume decreased last year.
Antonio Brown vs. Adam Jones
Adam Jones is technically a ‘downgrade’ for a wide receiver, but he would be no more of a downgrade than Bashaud Breeland and Josh Norman. Adam Jones is PFF’s 28th-ranked cornerback after Week 1 and helped to hold Brandon Marshall to three catches on eight targets.
This matchup is important to analyze because Antonio Brown costs a slate-high $9,900 on DraftKings this week. Oddly, he is priced below both Julio and Beckham on FanDuel; fade him there at your own risk. That being said, over the last two years, only two wide receivers (OBJ and AB) have been priced over $9,600 on DraftKings and they both crushed value according to our Trends tool:
Notable Upgrades
Julian Edelman vs. Byron Maxwell
With his poor performance in 2015, Byron Maxwell earned the nickname “Toast” from former safety Tank Williams. Maxwell is off to another poor start in 2016, receiving a PFF grade of 48.4 after Week 1. Edelman should run the majority of his routes against “Toast” while playing on the outside; he has plenty of opportunities to do some damage. He also boasts five FD Pro Trends this week and is the seventh-highest rated receiver in the CSURAM88 Model.
Eric Decker vs. Nickell Robey-Coleman
With Stephon Gilmore and Ronald Darby manning the outside, the Bills are weakest at the nickel corner spot manned by Robey. Eric Decker runs a lot of his routes out of the slot and should spend part of Thursday night matching up against Robey. In 2015, Robey received a poor PFF grade of 48.6 and was a big reason the Bills were vulnerable in the middle of the field.
Willie Snead vs. Eli Apple
This past weekend ‘small slot’ receiver Willie Snead mostly manned the slot position while ‘big slot’ receiver Michael Thomas did not. Snead should continue to have the same role as he did in 2015, which will allow him to run routes against the opposing slot cornerbacks. This week those routes should come against rookie Eli Apple, who graded out as PFF’s 62nd-ranked CB after Week 1.
Notable Downgrades
Tajae Sharpe vs. Darius Slay
In what will be his first real test of the season, Tajae Sharpe projects to run the majority of his routes against Darius Slay. Slay received a PFF grade of 87.0 in 2015 and had the 13th-best cornerback performance in Week 1.
It is certainly possible that Slay shadows Tajae all over the field, which would make him very difficult to use even with his 87 percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings.
Allen Robinson vs. Jason Verrett
As PFF’s Scott Barrett noted this offseason, Allen Robinson scored 67.0 PPR fantasy points on 48 targets against PFF’s top-30 graded CBs. Against PFF’s bottom-30 CBs, he scored 69.5 fantasy points on 20 targets. Long story short: A-Rob struggled when running routes against elite cornerbacks in 2015.
This week he should mostly lineup against Jason Verrett, who shadowed him last year. Against Verrett’s coverage, Robinson caught 5-of-11 targets for 56 yards. He was lucky to score a garbage-time touchdown with 1:21 left in the game to salvage his day.
Mike Evans vs. Patrick Peterson
PatPete often shadows when facing teams with elite wide receivers. Peterson is likely to shadow Mike Evans and with his 82.5 PFF coverage grade he is an obvious downgrade for Evans. Opposite Peterson, Brandon Williams received a 46.6 coverage grade; Jameis Winston could choose to avoid Peterson and heavily target Vincent Jackson instead.
Going Deep
Mike Wallace vs. Joe Haden and Jamar Taylor
Consider Mike Wallace this week, who should get an opportunity to run some of his routes against Jamar Taylor. The Ravens rotate both Wallace and Steve Smith as the RWR and LWR, and Taylor will be starting as the right CB. Jamar Taylor has received a PFF grade under 50 points every year over his last four seasons. Wallace should get a few chances to get by him on Sunday.
