Using our Stacking tool found within our revamped Models 3.0, this piece will identify some of the top stacks of the weekend. Check out our new Correlations page as well to find hidden edges in stacking positions and games.
Quarterback + Wide Receiver
- Matt Ryan ($7,500 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel)
- Julio Jones ($9,200 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel)
Let’s get this out of the way early: This will likely be the chalkiest stack of the week. The Atlanta Falcons have the second-highest implied point total at 28.5, and Ryan and Julio are projected to have the highest ownership at their respective positions on FanDuel. These two have shredded the Packers over the last three seasons, including the NFC Championship game last season in which Julio went off for 42.0 DraftKings points thanks to a 9-180-2 line. Per our NFL Trends tool, Ryan has a +13.26 Plus/Minus and 100 percent Consistency Rating against the Packers over the past three years. Given their high correlation, it makes sense that Julio also posted a +9.85 Plus/Minus and a 67 percent Consistency Rating. They both have massive upside in this matchup, but be sure to find low-owned plays elsewhere in the lineup.
Quarterback + Running Back
- Tom Brady ($7,900 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel)
- James White ($4,000 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel)
The Patriots have a 30.75 implied point total — easily the highest on the slate. Brady is projected to have the highest ownership among all QBs on DraftKings at 13-16 percent. That said, White stacked with Brady will likely be a contrarian play for tournaments: QBs and RBs have a lower 0.29 r-squared value in terms of tournament ownership correlation. He’ll likely be a pivot even from his own teammates: Brandin Cooks and Chris Hogan are projected at 17-20 and 9-12 percent ownership, respectively. This backfield is tough to predict, but White’s role as the pass-catching running back seems to be stable. Per our Week 2 Market Share Report, White saw 14 percent of Brady’s targets in Week 1.
That makes White particularly intriguing, as the Saints ranked dead last in DVOA to pass-catching backs last season (Football Outsiders).
Running Back + D/ST
- Marshawn Lynch ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel)
- Oakland Defense ($3,500 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel)
Per the NFL Correlations page, RB1s and D/STs have a positive correlation of 0.18. The Oakland Raiders are favored by 13 points — the second-highest total on the slate — while the Jets are implied for very low 15.25 points. We saw what LeSean McCoy did to the Jets last week, putting up the third-highest running back score on the main Sunday slate with 23.9 DraftKings points. Lynch averaged 4.2 yards per rushing attempt in Week 1, which isn’t GPP-winning, but he should see volume this week and have plenty of opportunities to get in the end zone. The Raiders ran seven plays inside the 10-yard line last week against a better defense, and Lynch received both rushing attempts.
On the defensive side, it is rare to have a team projected to score under 16 points in a week. When they do, however, we should take note:
Quarterback + Wide Receiver + Wide Receiver
- Philip Rivers ($5,800 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel)
- Keenan Allen ($5,800 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel)
- Tyrell Williams ($4,700 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel)
The Chargers are implied to score 24.5 points, which is about average for the slate. However, because they played this past Monday night, their prices have not been adjusted accordingly, and some of them are quite cheap. Williams is the second-highest rated wide receiver in the Bales Model on DraftKings, while Allen isn’t too far behind. Both Allen (seventh) and Williams (12th) rank in the top-12 in Projected Plus/Minus among all WRs in Week 2.
Rivers has been much better as a favorite than as an underdog over the last three seasons: He has a +4.64 Plus/Minus and a 73.7 percent Consistency Rating with an average ownership level of 6.5 percent as a favorite. He’ll likely be a popular value play this week but should still see reasonable ownership given the elite spots of the four highest-priced QBs.
Quarterback + Wide Receiver + Wide Receiver + Opposing Wide Receiver
- Drew Brees ($7,700 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel)
- Michael Thomas ($7,500 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel)
- Ted Ginn ($4,800 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel)
- Chris Hogan ($5,600 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel)
This game has the highest implied game total on the week at 55.5 points. Brees has some of the more prominent home/road splits in the NFL: Per our Trends tool, Brees has averaged 23.26 FanDuel points with a +4.26 Plus/Minus at home compared to just 18.35 FanDuel points and a -0.79 Plus/Minus on the road. Unfortunately, DFS players have caught on: He’s averaged 10.1 percent ownership at home and 5.9 percent on the road.
Thomas sits atop the Bales Model on FanDuel with a 25.1 ceiling projection — tied with Jordy Nelson‘s. Per the NFL Correlations page, QBs and their WR1s have a positive correlation of 0.46, but their WR2 is not far behind with a positive correlation of 0.36. Those are popular stacks, but one that’s likely undervalued is between a QB and the opposing WR1, which has a positive r-squared value of 0.28. Hogan is the fifth-highest rated WR in the Bales Model on FanDuel and is a great pivot from the much pricier Brandin Cooks. Our own Bryan Mears wrote recently about how game stacks are very undervalued in GPPs, and this could be a situation to take advantage of that in Week 2.
Good luck this week!
