The Bears will host Monday Night Football this week as three-point favorites over the visiting Eagles. The Bears are implied to score 22.8 points; the Eagles are implied to score 19.8 points. The game has a 42.5-point Vegas total, which is currently the third-lowest total on the slate. The weather looks perfect for September in the Windy City, where winds are forecasted to be at just nine miles per hour.
Philadelphia Eagles
Writer: Kelly McCann
QB – Carson Wentz
Wentz looked very sharp in his NFL debut, completing 22 of 37 passes for 278 yards and two touchdowns. Of course, the question now is: Can he do it again? Coming into the season, Pro Football Focus ranked all 32 defensive front sevens in the NFL. Cleveland (last week’s opponent) ranked 32nd and PFF noted, “The Browns recorded pressure on just 32.3 percent of passing plays in sub-package defenses, the fifth-worst rate in the NFL last season.” The Bears ranked ninth, and PFF noted, “Five of Chicago’s front-seven players recorded 25 pressures or more in 2015.” Wentz was sacked twice and fumbled twice last week, so how he handles the possible additional pressure could be interesting. Wentz has a 63 percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings, but he’s also currently one of the 10 lowest-rated quarterbacks in the CSURAM88 Player Model for DraftKings.
RB – Ryan Mathews
Mathews saw 22 carries in Week 1, which was tied for fourth-most in the NFL — a very encouraging sign. However, he was targeted only once in the passing game. Darren Sproles saw more snaps than Mathews and was targeted five times, so the Eagles’ dog status could mean a negative game script for Mathews. The Bears did not allow a rushing touchdown in Week 1 and gave up just six rushing touchdowns (the fifth-fewest) in 2015. Running backs priced from $6,000 to $6,600 on FanDuel (where Mathews has a 99 percent Bargain Rating), playing as underdogs, and with Vegas-implied point totals of 19.1 to 20.5 points have historically had a -0.36 Plus/Minus with 35.4 percent Consistency, albeit with just 1.5 percent average ownership.
RB – Darren Sproles
While the Bears defense was tough to score against on the ground in 2015, they did allow six receiving touchdowns (third-most) and 800 receiving yards (seventh-most) to running backs last season. According to our Trends tool, running backs on DK 1) priced from $3,500 to $4,100 who 2) have averaged three to five targets per game and 3) between 1.09 to 1.29 red-zone opportunities per game for the past 12 months have generated a +3.93 Plus/Minus with 72.7 percent Consistency at just 1.7 percent ownership in large tournaments. If Zach Ertz‘s rib injury keeps him out, Sproles could see a larger share of targets. Sproles always has correlation upside when stacked with Philadelphia’s D/ST. He leads the league in punt return yards after Week 1, and Chicago gave up the most punt return touchdowns in the NFL last season.
WR – Jordan Matthews
Per Bryan Mears’ very cool Snapshot article, J-Matt was on the field for 71 of Philadelphia’s 77 snaps and saw a very healthy 35.90 target share; you shouldn’t worry about opportunity for him. With no Ertz, Matthews could again see 14-plus targets. Comparably-priced target hogs on DK playing as underdogs in games with a Vegas total ranging from 40 to 45 points have yielded a modest +0.85 Plus/Minus with 33.3 percent Consistency.
WR – Nelson Agholor
Agholor came up with just the second touchdown catch of his career last week. He played in 67 of the Eagles’ 77 offensive snaps, compared to Dorial Green-Beckham‘s and Josh Huff‘s combined total of 53; he seems to be the No. 2 receiver for right now. Agholor and Sproles each saw five targets in the game, tied for third on the team. Per our Matchups tool, Agholor will be lined up against Tracy Porter, who hasn’t received a grade from Pro Football Focus higher than 56.7 since 2010. Agholor has a 95 percent Bargain Rating on DK this week and could be paired in a contrarian stack with Wentz in large-field tournaments. Like Sproles, Agholor would seemingly be in line for additional targets if Ertz doesn’t play.
WR – Dorial Green-Beckham
Green-Beckham was on the field for only 25 snaps last week, but he did catch both of his targets. Coach Doug Pederson said the Eagles plan to bring DBG along slowly and that “because we got him so late in training camp we’re still kind of giving him small doses of the playbook.”
TE – Zach Ertz
Ertz suffered a displaced bone in his rib and is considered week-to-week. He was on the field for 60 of the Eagles’ 77 snaps and was the second-most targeted Eagles player behind only J-Matt. This game is on Monday night, so at this point he’s virtually unplayable on FD. If he can’t go, Brent Celek becomes an intriguing GPP play priced at just $2,600 on DK.
Chicago Bears
Writer: Ian Hartitz
Researcher: Zachary Rabinovitz
QB – Jay Cutler
Cutler threw for just 216 yards in Week 1 but has a sneaky-good matchup against the Eagles’ pressure-oriented defense. The Eagles average 14.8 hurries per game but will face the No. 1 quarterback in DVOA with pressure from 2015. Cutler’s -4.3 percent DVOA with pressure is over 18 percent better than the second-best quarterback. He is the third-highest rated quarterback in the Adam Levitan Player Model and is just one of two quarterbacks priced under $6,000 on DraftKings with a projected ceiling of 30 points or more.
RB – Jeremy Langford
Langford was the Bears’ lead back in Week 1 by a large margin, handling over 95 percent of both snaps and touches at the position. He has now averaged 20.8 touches and scored five touchdowns in his four career games as the Bears’ featured back. Langford’s raw production is tough to ignore, but his 1.65 yards-after-contact average in Week 1 was one of the worst rates among all running backs, per PFF. He also didn’t force a single missed tackle, a troubling trend considering Langford ranked 55th at the position in evaded tackles in 2015. Still, he’ll have a great opportunity to keep racking up fantasy points against the Eagles in Week 2, as they have allowed four more DraftKings points than salary-based expectation to running backs over the last calendar year — the worst mark in the league.
RB – Ka’Deem Carey
Carey played two snaps in Week 1. Maybe Langford isn’t very good and Carey could benefit from more carries. The world may never know. In the meantime, Carey is one of the least-utilized backup running backs in the league.
WR – Alshon Jeffery
Jeffery has averaged 8.5 targets per game in his five-year career but was targeted just six times during the Bears’ season opener. This total will likely increase, as his 17.5 yards-per-target average was the second-highest average among all wide receivers in Week 1. The Bears-Eagles’ aforementioned current Vegas total of 42.5 points is the third-lowest in Week 2, but Jeffery has historically performed well in these types of games:
As our Trends tool shows, in 10 games with a similar Vegas total over the past three seasons he has averaged a +3.78 Plus/Minus with 70 percent Consistency. Jeffery’s +2.3 Projected Plus/Minus is the second-highest among all FanDuel receivers priced over $7,000.
WR – Kevin White
The much-anticipated NFL debut of White resulted in a team-high seven targets, although White caught just three for 34 yards. He has the ability to blossom into a deep threat with size, but it may take awhile for him to improve his route running. PFF graded White as just the 86th-best receiver in Week 1, although he graded slightly higher without blocking factored in. Eagles cornerback Leodis McKelvin is questionable for Sunday’s game with a hamstring injury, which is bad news for an Eagles defense that finished 2015 dead-last in average fantasy points allowed to receivers. White’s 12.2 projected ceiling is the fifth-highest among all FanDuel receivers priced under $6,000.
WR – Eddie Royal
Royal’s 14.3 yards-per-catch average from Week 1 was more than double his 2015 average and his 2.62 fantasy points per target was the ninth-highest average among all wide receivers. It may not be 2013 all over again, but Royal is priced at $3,500 on DraftKings with an 80 percent Bargain Rating facing an Eagles defense that allowed 3.1 more DraftKings points than salary-based expectation to wide receivers over the last 12 months — the second-worst mark in the league.
TE – Zach Miller
Miller was targeted four times in Week 1, totaling just 14 yards. White has taken Miller’s targets in the offense and he could struggle to accumulate enough opportunity to be a relevant fantasy option in 2016. This week will be particularly difficult, as the Eagles allowed the eighth-fewest average fantasy points to tight ends in 2015, largely thanks to PFF All-Pro safety Malcolm Jenkins.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
