Cowboys at Redskins
The Redskins, implied to score 23.75 points, are home favorites in this NFC East Division showdown. The Cowboys come to Washington as road underdogs with an implied Vegas total of 21.2 points. It’ll be cloudy and humid at FedEx Field on Sunday, with a 40 percent chance of Thunderstorms in the area.
Dallas Cowboys
Writer: Kelly McCann
QB – Dak Prescott
Dak has experienced the largest Salary Change among quarterbacks on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and as a result should be a lot less Preschalky this weekend. The Redskins allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks (21.8) in Week 1, and per our Player Models have allowed an Opponents Plus/Minus of +1.50 to the position on FD the past 12 months. The handful of comparably priced quarterbacks on FD who have experienced similar salary increases and faced like defenses have played well historically. Per our Trends tool:
RB – Ezekiel Elliott
According to Bryan Mears’ Snapshot article, Elliott was on the field for 48 of the Cowboys 78 offensive snaps last week: No other Dallas running back saw more than 17 snaps. More importantly, Elliott received 66.67 percent of the rushing attempts. The Redskins allowed 149 rushing yards (second-most), two touchdowns, and the sixth-most fantasy points to running backs on both FD and DK in Week 1. Football Outsiders ranked them 22nd against the run last season.
Pro Football Focus ranked the Cowboys No. 1 in a recent article ranking all 32 offensive lines. Since 2014, comparably-priced Cowboys running backs on FD have manufactured a +2.38 Plus/Minus with 53.8 percent Consistency and 9.1 percent average ownership. Elliott has a 98 percent Bargain Rating on FD, where he currently has a top-five rating in the CSURAM88 Player Model.
RB – Lance Dunbar
Alfred Morris got seven carries on Sunday, but he is clearly Elliott’s backup and not a strong play while Elliott is healthy. Dunbar on the other hand, relies on targets in the passing game to be successful. He was only targeted twice last week, but with the Cowboys road underdogs and possibly playing catch-up you could consider stacking Dunbar with Elliott in a large field tournament like DK’s Millionaire Maker or in a qualifier, hoping to create a unique lineup.
WR – Dez Bryant
According to our Matchups tool, Bryant will line up primarily against Bashaud Breeland, who defended 11 passes last season (tied for ninth-most) but also allowed six touchdowns. Breeland allowed 50 yards or more just three times in the final nine games of last season and finished the 2015 season with a Pro Football Focus grade of 81.3. His new partner in crime, Josh Norman, finished the season with a grade of 87.9, allowing 50 yards only once during the entire 2015 season. The Redskins cornerback group was ranked No. 3 overall by PFF heading into the 2016 season.
Bryant owns a perfect 100 percent Bargain Rating on FD this week and is currently a top-10 rated player in the Bales Player Model. Proceed cautiously however: In the 10 games in which Dez has been comparably priced on FD he has surrendered a -2.20 Plus/Minus with 30 percent Consistency at 9.8 percent ownership.
WR – Cole Beasley
Beasley hauled in eight of 12 targets for 65 yards on Sunday and would have had a touchdown if he weren’t so Wes Welker-like could catch. He was targeted more times than Bryant and was second on the team in targets to only Jason Witten. Interestingly, Beasley’s 1.19 red-zone opportunities per game the past 12 months actually leads all Cowboys receivers. He provides more value on DK, where he is priced at only $3,200 this week and will accumulate points per reception. Working out of the slot should keep Beasley away from both Norman and Breeland, and may make him the Cowboys ‘safest’ receiver this week.
WR – Terrance Williams
Despite being on the field for five more snaps than Beasley, Williams was targeted eight fewer times. With a potential head-to-head battle with Norman (per our Matchups tool) and a rookie quarterback seemingly unwilling to throw the ball deep, Williams looks pretty unappealing this week.
TE – Jason Witten
Witten was targeted 14 times last week and had a whopping 31.11 target share percentage. Greg Olsen, at 29.03, was the only other tight end to even came close to a 30 percent share. This week Witten gets a Washington defense that has allowed a +1.70 Opponents Plus/Minus to tight ends on FanDuel, where Witten has an 85 percent Bargain Rating. Similarly priced tight ends on FD with comparable 12-month target averages have provided a +2.75 Plus/Minus with 61 percent Consistency at 6.6 percent average ownership in large tournaments.
Washington Redskins
Writer: Kelly McCann
QB – Kirk Cousins
The clock-killing Cowboys do a good job of limiting the opposition’s snaps, so Cousins will need to be efficient in this game. Cousins was very inefficient last week, when he threw two interceptions and zero touchdowns. The Cowboys have an Opponents Plus/Minus of -1.90 against quarterbacks, making them the fifth-toughest matchup on this week’s slate. Cousins in currently the fifth-worst rated quarterback in the Levitan Player Model (the same Adam Levitan who may or may not have said that the Redskins were going to the Super Bowl in the Week 1 edition of the NFL Daily Fantasy Flex podcast). Comparably priced quarterbacks on DK playing at home and in division games have yielded a +0.53 Plus/Minus with 57.6 percent Consistency and 4.3 percent ownership.
RB – Matt Jones
The good news? Jones played and received 58.33 percent of the Redskins’ carries. The bad news? The Redskins ran the ball a total of 12 times in the game, and Jones gained 24 yards. Obviously, getting crushed by the Steelers and a negative game script hurt Jones. But the Redskins actually led this game 6-0 initially, and it wasn’t until Antonio Brown scored with 10 minutes left in the second quarter that Washington trailed, making Jones’ usage slightly more troubling.
If he gets opportunity, the matchup is good. Dallas allowed 1,684 rushing yards (seventh-most), 13 rushing touchdowns (fifth-most), and 21.6 DK points (sixth-most) to running backs in 2015. Jones has a 60 percent Bargain Rating on DK, where he’s priced at $4,500. Comparably priced running backs on DK on teams with implied point totals between 20.3 and 22.3 have historically accumulated a +1.71 Plus/Minus with 44.1 percent Consistency and 5.6 percent ownership.
RB – Chris Thompson
Thompson was on the field for 39 snaps as the Redskins played catch-up in Week 1. Even with his fair share of snaps, Thompson saw just two of Cousins’ 42 targets. Three Redskins players, including DeSean Jackson, saw at least 10 targets in the game. Per the RotoViz Game Splits App, Thompson’s points per game, targets, receptions, receiving touchdowns, and receiving yards all suffer when he plays with a healthy DeSean.
WR – DeSean Jackson
Cowboys cornerbacks were ranked 27th in PFF’s ranking of all 32 cornerback groups heading into the 2016 season. Per our Matchups tool, Jackson will run the majority of his routes against Morris Claiborne, who finished last season with a PFF grade of 41.1. In fact, Claiborne has had a grade of 46.1 or worse in three of the previous four years. When priced between $6,100 and $7,100 on FanDuel (where he has a 95 percent Bargain Rating) and playing as favorites at home, wide receivers have previously contributed a +2.87 Plus/Minus with 58.1 percent Consistency at 10.2 percent ownership.
WR – Jamison Crowder
Crowder saw more snaps and more targets than Pierre Garcon last week, making him an intriguing play this week. Crowder experienced a Salary Change of -$200 on DK, despite the increased usage. Comparably priced players on DK whose salaries have decreased (despite being heavily targeted recently) have generated a +2.30 Plus/Minus with a steady 64.7 percent Consistency and just 2.2 percent ownership. Pairing Crowder (projected at zero to one percent ownership in the Milly Maker) with Cousins and Jackson could be a crafty move.
WR – Pierre Garcon
While Cousins was busy targeting Jackson, Crowder and Jordan Reed 10 times or more on Monday night, Garcon was targeted just six times. He did manage to haul in all six for a total of 51 yards. Garcon is priced at $6,200 on FD, with a projected floor of 4.9 points and a ceiling of 10.9 points, as a potentially fourth-fiddle in this offense. Receivers with similar projections and pricing on FD have yielded a +0.20 Plus/Minus.
TE – Jordan Reed
Reed currently has a top-two projected ceiling on both FD and DK. He was targeted more than any other Redskins player last week and is a top play at tight end on a weekly basis. Reed had four multi-touchdown games in 14 games played last season, but none of them were against the NFC East. Still, Reed accumulated a Plus/Minus of over three points on both FD and DK last season in division games. If you’re trying to figure out a reason to fade him (I’m not going to give you one), do so on FD, where we have him projected as one of the six highest-owned tight ends on the slate.
News Updates
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