The Broncos return to Mile High Stadium as six-point favorites over the visiting Colts. The Broncos’ implied point total of 25.5 is currently the seventh-highest total of any team in Week 2 but may be more a result of the Colts’ depleted secondary than the Trevor Siemian era. The Colts’ implied point total of 19.5 is the fourth-lowest mark in Week 2 despite Andrew Luck looking like his old self in Week 1 against the Lions. There will be sunny skies in Denver as Luck attempts to solve the Broncos’ elite defense.
Indianapolis Colts
Writer: Ian Hartitz
Researcher: Zachary Rabinovitz
QB – Andrew Luck
Luck had the most fantasy points and highest Plus/Minus of any quarterback in Week 1. With the help of speedy receivers T.Y Hilton, Phillip Dorsett, and Donte Moncrief (all of whom have been clocked at 4.4 seconds or faster in the 40-yard dash), Luck torched the Lions when throwing 10-plus yards downfield. He completed 11 of 13 such passes for 203 yards and three touchdowns, and he did much of the work for his receivers, gaining 302 of his 385 passing yards before the catch, per PFF. Luck will face a tough Broncos defense, but in 12 career starts against top-five pass defenses he has surprisingly averaged slightly more fantasy points than normal. The Super Bowl hangover may be real, but not for Von Miller, who finished Week 1 as PFF’s fifth-highest graded edge defender.
RB – Frank Gore
Gore resumed his role as the Colts’ workhorse, as he outsnapped backup Robert Turbin 48 to 12. Unfortunately for Gore, these snaps didn’t result in many positive opportunities. Despite running nine red-zone plays, the Colts ran the ball just once and Gore’s volume inside the 10-yard line in 2015 mostly came with Matt Hasselbeck under center. While Gore’s six targets tripled rookie Josh Ferguson‘s total, Ferguson gained seven more yards on two less receptions and showed a burst the 33-year-old Gore may not have anymore. He rates as a bottom-25 back in Week 2 in our Tournament Model, although his zero to one percent projected ownership is lower than most similarly-priced backs.
RB – Josh Ferguson
Ferguson wasn’t particularly good at Illinois, averaging just 5.1 yards per carry, but he may have found a role with the Colts as a receiver. In 2014, Ahmad Bradshaw scored six receiving touchdowns on just 38 receptions as the Colts’ receiving back and Ferguson made a good case for this role in Week 1, picking up 4.09 yards per route run — the fourth-best mark among all rookies, per PFF. His sub 4.5-second 40-yard dash speed is a nice change of pace from Gore, and Ferguson was more effective with his receptions than Robert Turbin was with his. Still, a Broncos defense that finished 2015 in the top-10 in Plus/Minus allowed to running backs will make things tough on Ferguson.
WR – T.Y. Hilton
The least productive of the Colts’ receivers in Week 1, Hilton still led the team with 12 targets and appeared in-sync with Luck. This could mean he’ll draw Chris Harris Jr., PFF’s third-highest graded cornerback from Week 1. The matchup for Hilton isn’t great, nor is his history in games with a similar implied point total:
Six games isn’t a massive sample size, but our Trends tool shows that Hilton’s -4.36 Plus/Minus still suggests he has trouble producing in low-implied games. His six DraftKings Pro Trends are certainly encouraging, although Hilton’s Projected Plus/Minus of -1.1 is not.
WR – Donte Moncrief
Moncrief picked up right where he left off with Luck, scoring another touchdown in Week 1. This now gives Moncrief six touchdowns in his last eight games with Luck. Due to his size, he may draw Aqib Talib, PFF’s 22nd-highest rated cornerback from Week 1. Moncrief has a higher projected floor than Hilton’s this week but a lower projected ceiling. Still, with the Colts currently being so pass-happy in the red zone, Moncrief is the receiver most likely to benefit, as evidenced by his 66.7 percent red-zone catch rate in 2015, the 12th-highest rate among all wide receivers.
WR – Phillip Dorsett
Dorsett’s 51-yard catch against the Lions in the season opener was good for more yards than he managed to put together during any single game in 2015. His team-leading 94 receiving yards on the day were highlighted by a strong 15.7 yards-per-target mark, an average which ranked sixth in Week 1 among all receivers with at least three targets, per PFR. Dorsett was clearly behind Hilton and Moncrief in Andrew Luck’s pecking order, but the Colts did pass the ball the second-most times in Week 1 and could continue to find themselves in shootouts if their secondary doesn’t get healthy. The Colts receivers have a tough matchup in Week 2 against the Broncos’ beastly secondary; however, slot-corner Bradley Roby was graded as the second-worst cornerback in Week 1 by PFF. Dorsett is priced at $4,400 on DraftKings but has a 13.4-point projected ceiling.
TE – Dwayne Allen
The forgotten man thanks to backup tight end Jack Doyle’s two touchdowns, Allen had himself a strong season opener. His six targets were tied for the third-most on the Colts, and his 13.3 yards-per-reception average was third among all tight ends with at least three receptions in Week 1. Both of these are massive steps in the right direction considering Allen had just 29 targets in 13 games in 2015 and averaged just 6.8 yards per reception. Overall, he finished as PFF’s fifth-highest graded tight end in Week 1 and looked like the same guy who averaged 2.33 fantasy points per target in 2014, the fourth-highest average among all tight ends. Allen is priced at $3,600 on DraftKings with a 99 percent Bargain Rating.
Denver Broncos
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Trevor Siemian
In Week 1 against a tough Panthers defense, seventh-round pick Siemian ultimately held on for his first NFL win. After starting the game with six straight pass attempts, he finished the game going 18 of 26 with a 69.1 QBR. The Colts ranked 12th in Pass DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average) last season and they are still without their best cornerback in Vontae Davis. Siemian has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +0.4 on FD. His aDot (average depth of target) in Week 1 of 5.6 yards was second-worst in the NFL and he just isn’t asked to do enough to be attractive in DFS. Even in a prime matchup, Siemian still has the fourth-lowest projected ceiling on the slate; the Broncos have shown that they will win games by running the football and playing great defense.
RB – C.J. Anderson
C.J. Anderson was unstoppable on Thursday night, totaling 139 total yards and two touchdowns. Anderson played 83 percent of the offensive snaps and received 85.7 percent of the team’s red-zone carries. He had 100 percent of the team’s market share of carries inside the the 10-yard line. On a team that was largely a split backfield with Ronnie Hillman last year, Anderson is clearly the guy this year. He’s priced as a top-seven back on DraftKings and FanDuel, but his usage may still make him a DFS value in Week 2 against a banged-up Colts defense missing its top cornerback along with one of PFF’s top-25 interior defensive lineman in Henry Anderson.
RB – Devontae Booker
Booker is a talented three-down back who’s quite comparable to CJA, but unfortunately he lost a fumble on his first NFL carry. Anderson will get all the volume he can handle against Indianapolis, making the fourth-round rookie a risky play in any DFS format.
WR – Demaryius Thomas
The Colts’ pass defense allowed a -0.30 Plus/Minus to wide receivers last season on DraftKings. Of course, that was with top cornerback Vontae Davis shadowing the opposing team’s WR1. According to our Matchups tool, Thomas led the Broncos with a 28 percent target share in Week 1 and is currently slated to face veteran Antonio Cromartie, who received from PFF the 12st-best coverage grade in Week 1 lined up against Golden Tate.
Thomas has been battling a hip injury all week and participated in about a third of the practice reps. DT should be fine to play on Sunday, but he’ll be less than 100 percent. His Bargain Rating on DraftKings is just 11 percent and the Broncos’ run-first style could limit his ceiling. He has one 100-yard game in his last 13 outings; that’s not the upside we’re looking for in GPPs. He is currently the 32nd-rated wide receiver in our DK Tournament Model.
WR – Emmanuel Sanders
Siemian threw the second-fewest passes of all starting quarterbacks in Week 1; Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders represented a 52 percent target share of those. It is no surprise that Sanders’ projected ceiling this week is outside the top-35; there just isn’t enough upside in the passing game. Additionally, Sanders might not exploit this matchup as we’d expect, as he is not a threat in the red zone: Thomas out-targeted him last season 19 to eight from inside the 20-yard line.
Per our Trends tool, receivers comparable to Sanders in salary and projected floors and ceilings have previously garnered a +0.17 Plus/Minus on DK. Even on FanDuel where his Bargain Rating is 88 percent, Sanders still is rated 19th in our Tournament Model and owns a significantly lower ceiling than most players in front of him. However, it is important to note that the Colts finished 2015 as a bottom-10 defense in Plus/Minus allowed to wide receivers.
WR – Cody Latimer
A minimum-priced option yet again on DK and FD, Latimer is not likely to get enough volume in Week 2 to be anything more than a GPP flyer. Neither Latimer nor Jordan Norwood were targeted in Week 1 and played just 29 and 52 percent of the team’s snaps, respectively. You are essentially praying for a touchdown from Latimer if you start him in DFS.
TE – Virgil Green
Head coach Gary Kubiak features his tight end in the passing game and Green saw five targets in Week 1 for a 20 percent target share in the Broncos offense. This is a huge improvement for a guy who spent most of 2015 blocking. Virgil was a consistent red-zone threat for Siemian in camp and the preseason. For a guy who’s dirt cheap, he has a decent chance of hitting value against the Colts in Week 2.
News Updates
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