49ers at Panthers
Despite playing incredibly well on Monday night against the Rams, the 49ers find themselves traveling cross country as 13.5-point underdogs against a pissed-off Carolina Panthers squad playing in the first home game of the season. The 49ers are currently implied for a slate-low 16 points. Carolina currently has a slate-high implied Vegas total of 29.5 points. There will be chalk from this game.
San Francisco 49ers
Writer: Bryan Mears
QB – Blaine Gabbert
This is the least-talked about story line this week, but this might be a matchup between the two best running QBs in the NFL. I’m only slightly kidding: In his first game with head coach Chip Kelley, Gabbert rushed nine times for 43 yards. For reference, stud Rams RB Todd Gurley rushed 17 times for 47 yards. Just sayin’.
All joking aside, Gabbert was actually solid in Week 1: He finished 22 of 35 for 170 yards and a touchdown and posted an 84.2 passer rating. He had 14.5 DK points. Those numbers won’t blow you away, but that’s not the important issue with Gabbert. He’s not a guy we’ll roster in DFS and especially against the Panthers’ defense, but we are very concerned about whether he can avoid being a Case Keenum — a negative force that pulls the rest of the offense into its black hole of suckiness. For at least one week, he didn’t Keenum his teammates.
RB – Carlos Hyde
This was fairly predictable given Chip Kelley’s up-tempo style, but the 49ers led the NFL in Week 1 with 81 offensive snaps. Hyde was in on 57 of those (70.4 percent) and was definitely their bell-cow back: He owned 54.8 percent of their rush attempts and that’s even underselling his role, since Gabbert owned 21.4 of the rush attempts with his scrambling, as mentioned above.
Hyde was solid last week given his opportunity: He accumulated 88 rush yards on 23 attempts and found the end zone twice. Unfortunately, this week he’s facing a Panthers team that last year ranked sixth against the run, per DVOA, although they did have a subpar performance against Denver’s C.J. Anderson in Week 1. Hyde received three passing targets last week. That will determine his value in Week 2, as double-digit dogs historically have struggled to meet value:
On the bright side, look at that historical ownership mark. He’s cheap this week at $6,100 on FD and has a +3.9 Projected Plus/Minus there. No way should he be in your cash-game lineups, but he might be worth a couple of flyers or two in GPPs.
RB – Shaun Draughn
I like Draughn. He went to the University of North Carolina. He got 16.7 percent of the 49ers’ rushes and 5.1 percent of their passes in Week 1. That’s not bad for a minimum-priced guy playing in the most up-tempo offense in the league. But I do not like him this week against the Panthers.
WR – Torrey Smith
For all the potential hype about Smith during the offseason — he’s the only option in a Chip Kelley offense; who else is Gabbert going to throw the ball to? — Smith was very disappointing in Week 1, catching only two balls on six targets for 13 yards. He received 17.95 percent of the 49ers’ targets last week, which wasn’t even first on the team. The Panthers ranked second against the pass last season, per DVOA. You can do better than Smith this week.
WR — Jeremy Kerley
Last week I did say that we needed to monitor Kerley — who was traded to the 49ers after salaries were released and thus couldn’t be rostered in Week 1 — and that proved to be correct. Kerley led the 49ers in target share at 33.33 percent and was on the field for 54 of their 81 offensive snaps. He finished the game with seven receptions for 61 yards. This isn’t a great spot, but monitor him: A high-volume slot receiver will be a DFS asset in this offense if Week 1 is a fair indication of things to come.
WR – Quinton Patton
Patton saw a larger amount of snaps than Kerley (71 versus 54), but he saw a smaller share of targets (15.38 versus 33.33). He ended up hitting value as he caught all five of his targets for 60 yards, but it’s fair to say that Hyde and Kerley — the guys who will stay close to Gabbert in the middle of the field — will hold more DFS value. Patton is near minimum price on both sites and all of the 49ers receivers are projected for near-zero percent ownership, but they’re GPP darts at best this week.
TE – Vance McDonald
McDonald and Garrett Celek essentially split time in Week 1: McDonald got 51 snaps versus Celek’s 46. Still, neither was really involved in the passing game. McDonald received only 7.69 percent of the 49ers’ targets. McDonald has decent projections this week — he has a Projected Plus/Minus of +1.8 and an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.2 — but there are much better games to target for a TE in this slate.
Carolina Panthers
Writer: Tyler Buecher
QB – Cam Newton
When the Panthers are seven-point home favorites or more, Newton has been an absolute stud. Over the past two seasons in this situation, Newton has had a +9.83 Plus/Minus on FanDuel, averaging nearly 30 fantasy points per game. Possessing a 37.3-point ceiling per our Player Models, Newton makes for a terrific pivot for those chasing the Giants-Saints game with Eli Manning and Drew Brees.
RB – Jonathan Stewart
After shutting down the Rams tough running game last week, can the 49ers repeat that feat on the road in Carolina? I’m not a believer. The 49ers were bottom-five in fantasy points, rushing attempts, rushing yards, and rushing touchdowns allowed last year. This game script is set up for a lot of three-and-outs by San Francisco followed by a heavy dosage of J-Stew, who has 10 Pro Trends in his favor this week on FD. It’s not unreasonable to project for 20 carries in this matchup.
RB – Fozzy Whitaker
San Francisco also struggled last season to defend receiving backs, allowing the fifth-most receptions to the position. Whitaker saw just 13 snaps last week, but he received four touches. Cameron Artis-Payne was a healthy scratch last week and it looks like Whitaker is the backup to keep your eyes on in Carolina.
FB – Mike Tolbert
In a game this lopsided, even Tolbert is worth looking into, given that he has a $3,000 minimum salary on DraftKings and has the capacity to score touchdowns and catch passes.
WR – Kelvin Benjamin
Dominating the wide receiver snaps, targets, and production, Benjamin proved to all the doubters that he’s out to play in 2016. Benjamin has some of the highest upside on DK among all receivers this week, despite a tough matchup against Jimmie Ward, who dominated Rams’ receivers last week, finishing with the third-highest cornerback grade by PFF.
However, we almost have to take that Week 1 matchup with a giant grain of salt, given that the 49ers were facing a Case Keenum-led squad that punted the ball 10 times. San Francisco gave up the fifth-most receiving yards to wideouts last year, and we could see Benjamin put up points again against the 49ers, who are travelling east on a short week.
WR – Devin Funchess
Funchess was fourth among Carolina’s wide receivers in snaps last week, proving once again that we don’t know which coaches we can trust. He’s intriguing at $4,300 on DK, given the six-inch height advantage he has over opposing cornerback Chris Davis in the slot. San Francisco ranked 28th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA against No. 2 wide receivers last season, but Funchess’ usage remains a concern . . . and he isn’t really this team’s No. 2 receiver right now anyway.
WR – Ted Ginn
Ginn is coming off a one-target Week 1 that featured a tough outing against the Denver cornerbacks. San Francisco allowed the seventh-most 20-yard pass plays last season, proving to be susceptible to the big play. Ginn remains a GPP-only play until he sees more regular volume.
TE – Greg Olsen
Olsen is projected to score 12.4 points with a ceiling of 16.3 as this week’s highest-projected tight end on FD. He led the Panthers in red-zone targets last week and faces off against a 49ers defense that was bottom-10 in most red-zone trips allowed last year. With tight end being an inherently volatile position, he also matches one of my favorite trends on DK:
Adding +3.60 Plus/Minus, tight ends who average at least 4.0 receptions per game are guys we should be targeting with safe floors in cash games. Olsen is one of ten tight ends who fit the bill this week.
News Updates
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