In the Regression Report, I leverage real data to find quarterbacks, wide receivers, running backs, or tight ends with notable data points that suggest impending regression. We will focus on game flow, targets, and team-specific usage in conjunction with our weekly Market Share Report.
For more information on the players highlighted in this article, see our Fantasy Football Preview Dashboard.
Mike Glennon, QB
Regression data point: 40 pass attempts
The Bears ran 59 offensive plays in Week 1. Glennon threw the ball 40 times, and the team attempted just 19 rushing plays behind an offensive line — fully intact from last season — that finished eighth with 4.48 adjusted line yards per attempt last season. Extrapolating over an entire season, that 67.8 percent pass/run ratio from Week 1 would have led the NFL in 2016 ahead of the Ravens at 64.9 percent. The Bears’ target leaders in Week 1 were rookie Tarik Cohen (12), Zach Miller (6), Jordan Howard (5), Kendall Wright (4), and Josh Bellamy (4).
Cohen could conceivably lead the team in targets, but Glennon’s pass attempts are likely to regress for a Chicago team that finished with the 11th-fewest pass attempts last year. In a John Fox offense (per our Bears Fantasy Preview), never has a non-Manning team been higher than No. 10 in offensive plays, yards, pass/run ratio, and neutral pace. The Bears played at the 10th-slowest neutral pace (31.08) last year; game script permitting, they want to move the ball methodically down the field using their strength at offensive line to run the football.
Kareem Hunt, RB
Regression data point: Three total touchdowns on 22 touches, playing 58 percent of the offensive snaps
He’s on pace for a 48-touchdown rookie season, but it’s safe to say that pace will regress considering he scored three times on just 58 percent of the team’s offensive snaps. His 22 touches were a big deal, but recent data suggests that it’s unlikely to become the norm for an Andy Reid offense. Even though the Chiefs have been in the top half of the league in rushing attempts each of the last four years, Spencer Ware has reached 22 touches only twice in 30 career games. In three of four years, the Chiefs have played at a bottom-five pace, and the team is yet to rank higher than 20th in pass attempts in any given season.
Also, Charcandrick West still played 35 percent of the snaps even though the Chiefs led for nearly a third of this game. Over the last 10 games in which Ware has seen at least 10 touches, West has played just 28.8 percent of the snaps. Per our Models, Alex Smith has targeted his running backs on 15.3 percent of his throws over the past year; in Week 1 that number spiked to 20 percent. He threw the ball 35 times, and he’s averaged just 31.7 attempts in his 61 regular season games; it’s possible Hunt’s six targets were a bit high as well.
Leonard Fournette, RB
Regression data point: Six rush attempts inside the 10-yard line
Per our NFL News feed, Fournette’s heavy workload in Week 1 was not much of a surprise. That said, the Jaguars were able to stay extremely run-heavy — Blake Bortles threw just 11 passes — thanks to a substantial lead in the first half. Tom Savage was clearly overmatched early against this Jacksonville defense, starting out 7-of-13 for 62 yards and losing a fumble the defense returned for a touchdown. The secondary was already a strength last year for the Jags, finishing fifth in yards, touchdowns, and net yards allowed per attempt, but the acquisition of Calais Campbell in free agency paid immediate dividends in the front seven; he had 3.5 sacks in the first half.
The Texans’ offensive line was an abomination in pass protection with left tackle Duane Brown still holding out. Although Fournette should again see a heavy workload moving forward, his six carries inside the 10-yard line is likely to regress. He is in a poor offense that will not be in scoring position often and draws another tough matchup against the Titans at home in Week 2. Tennessee tied for the fewest FanDuel points allowed to the running back position in 2016 and surrendered the third-fewest rushing touchdowns. The Jaguars are home underdogs implied for just 20.5 points (via our Vegas Dashboard).
DeAndre Hopkins, WR
Regression data point: 16 targets
Per the Week 2 Market Share Report, Hopkins owned a 44.44 percent target market share in Week 1 on 16 targets, leading all players. FantasyLabs Editor-in-Chief Matthew Freedman will be touching on player props every Sunday morning. Here’s what he said last week:
In his 13 games with head coach Bill O’Brien with spreads of -2 to -8, DeAndre Hopkins has averaged 9.92 receptions per game for 83.8 yards receiving.
His stat line of 7-55-1 falls below that average, and somehow it took an absurd 16 targets to get there. His inefficiency makes sense given the quarterback play. Hopkins caught just one of eight targets from Savage in Week 1 — a lack of efficiency and chemistry that should have been apparent with stat lines from Hopkins last year of 8-87-0 and 3-43-0 on 23 total targets in 2016. Deshaun Watson showed a bit more chemistry with Hopkins in mop-up duty — they hooked up for a four-yard touchdown — but accuracy has been an issue for Watson, completing just 51.8 percent of his passes in the preseason and 52.2 percent in Week 1. In just 5.58 percent of DraftKings Millionaire Maker lineups last week (per our DFS Contests Dashboard), Hopkins is likely to see more ownership in Week 2 as purely a volume play. Be sure and check out our Thursday Night Breakdown later for more info on Hopkins against the Bengals.
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