Every Friday, Main Slate Strategy analyzes the week’s daily fantasy slate from a game theory perspective.
When most people think of “DFS Game Theory” they imagine pivoting away from a player they suspect will be highly owned to a less coveted player at a similar price point, stacking a popular quarterback with his second or third option in order to dodge the lofty ownership of the top receiver, or simply playing contrarian stacks. These strategies are useful, but looking at how most players build lineups and, more specifically, where the field is likely to spend, is just as profitable.
Can’t See The Forest For The Trees
Week 2 features a pair of monster games. With the Tom Brady facing Drew Brees at the Coors Field of football venues and Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan trading blows in Atlanta’s new dome, these two games are likely to hold a large portion of the weekly ownership. The shootout potential of these two games is seen in their high totals of 55.5 and 54.0 points (per our Vegas Dashboard) and in the week’s pricing. On DraftKings the four highest-priced passers on the slate belong to these two games. On FanDuel they make up four of the five highest-priced plays at the position. Within our Models, we’re projecting them to be heavily owned. As of writing, these four passers are projected to have approximately half of the ownership on both sites. At a position that offers relatively flat scoring, paying down at quarterback seems like a way to gain leverage on the field.
With big ownership headed toward Brady, Brees, Rodgers, and Ryan, it only makes sense that their top receiving options will be heavily owned as well. Brandin Cooks, Michael Thomas, Jordy Nelson, and Julio Jones are all priced inside the top eight wide receivers on DraftKings and FanDuel. Brady’s de facto top target when healthy, Rob Gronkowski is by far the highest-priced tight end on both sites.
The High-Priced Running Backs
With many DFS players investing heavily in top-end quarterbacks and wide receivers, they’re likely to be looking for value at the running back position. As a result, bucking this trend and spending up at running back is a great way to create unique lineups.
Le’Veon Bell was owned in 25.05 percent of DraftKings Millionaire Maker lineups in Week 1 (per our DFS Ownership Dashboard). After disappointing in a soft matchup against the Browns in Week 1 and slated to face in Week 2 a Vikings defense that just bottled up the Saints on national television, Bell could have half the ownership this week, especially since his price tag didn’t budge on DraftKings and dropped only $300 on FanDuel. With the highest ceiling projections at the position, Bell might be available at what could be his lowest ownership rates of the season. Historically, Bell has crushed as a home favorite against non-divisional opponents (per our Trends tool):
- DraftKings and FanDuel Points per Game (PPG): 27.47 and 23.02
- Plus/Minus: +8.20 and +6.93
- Consistency Rating (percent): 88.9 and 77.8
Ezekiel Elliott and LeSean McCoy follow Bell in salary and are in play with top-four ceiling projections on both sites. As noted in this week’s Rotoworld pivot column, a sizeable amount of the field will shy away from Elliott on the road against the Broncos, who have an impressive defense but are coming off a short week and last year allowed the fifth-most yards rushing with 2,085. Given that the Broncos in 2016 also had the No. 1 pass defense, the Cowboys will likely rely on the run. Zeke has a realistic shot to lead all running backs in touches this week. The same can be said for McCoy, who saw 27 last week.
Leveraging Against Popular Plays
Now we’ll take a micro approach to the slate and look at pivots off of popular individual players or stacks.
The Cover Boy Ty Montgomery
The consensus is that Ty Montgomery will be the highest-owned player on the slate. Almost every popular fantasy site is touting him as a must-play. Still, that doesn’t always lead to fantasy production. We’re projecting Montgomery for at least 25 percent ownership on both sites, and he could easily exceed those numbers as popular fantasy touts continue to advocate the Packer as the play of the week. It makes sense to think about pivoting to other plays.
As we touched on earlier, one effective way to move off of a player is to roster another similar in pricing. This is much easier to do on DraftKings than FanDuel. On DraftKings, just $200 more than Montgomery, is Marshawn Lynch, who has gotten a few mentions across the industry, but considering the situation the Raiders are in this week he’s flying under the radar. The Raiders are home favorites to the tune of 14 points with the Jets coming out west. Lynch was eased into Week 1, playing less than half of the Raiders’ snaps (32/69), but he was heavily used on the snaps he saw with 18 carries and two targets. For as much as DFS players make about home favorite running backs we seem to be ignoring Lynch, who has done well as a home favorite (data since 2014):
- DraftKings and FanDuel PPG: 19.30 and 17.71
- Plus/Minus: +4.12 and +3.45
- Consistency Rating (percent): 54.5 and 54.5
The second pivot I’ll use to gain leverage on Montgomery is harder to stomach: Jordan Howard. He’s $100 higher than TyMont on DraftKings, and he also provides leverage against flavor of the week Tarik Cohen, who has an ownership projection at 17-20 percent. As Joe Holka mentions in this week’s Regression Report, the Bears leaned on the pass in Week 1 more than they usually do, and in Week 2 they could shift back toward the run. Howard should see a healthy number of carries, given that the Bears are thin at receiver and the opposing Buccaneers last year were 26th against the run in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average.
Stacking Kirk Cousins With Terrelle Pryor
During the 2016 season Kirk Cousins was in the mix every week, finishing with an average of 307.3 yards passing per game, just behind Brees and Ryan. After a handful of ugly preseason drives and an underwhelming Week 1 against the Eagles, he’s now an afterthought against a Rams defense that should be better with new defensive coordinator Wade Phillips but still last year ranked 20th in pass DVOA. Cousins cost only $6,100 on DraftKings and $7,700 on FanDuel with a projected ownership of no more than one percent.
Terrelle Pryor just missed a massive game in Week 1 with an ugly drop on a long pass and was overshot by Cousins more than once. On 11 targets Pryor saw 166 air yards against the Eagles, second to only DeAndre Hopkins. Pryor is conveniently sandwiched between the likes of Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, Randall Cobb, and Keenan Allen, who are all within $200 of Pryor on DraftKings and have projected double-digit ownership rates. Pryor is projected for less than five percent ownership. If Pryor maintains his air yard dominance, he might never be cheaper or have lower ownership this year. Paying down with this stack gives us an opportunity to pay up at other positions and increases our odds of creating unique tournament lineups.
Good luck this week and be sure to research for yourself with our entire suite of Tools.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NFL news feed:
