Week 2 of the NFL season features five games opening at a 50-point total or higher. With up-tempo offense squaring off in prime spots, Sunday’s slate could feature several shootouts.
Check out a few games to target in Week 2, and a few you might want to proceed with caution on.
Also, don’t forget to check out our large suite of analytical fantasy tools and our FantasyLabs Player Models.
Games to Target
Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Chargers
Opening with a 55.5-point total, this is the highest total on the slate as two fast-paced, high-powered offenses square off in a late afternoon showdown.
Dallas is coming off a 31-29 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to open the season last Thursday and now heads to the west coast to face the Los Angeles Chargers, who grabbed a 20-16 win from the Washington Football Team.
The Cowboys ran 77 plays, using a pass-heavy 77%/23% pass-to-run split, throwing the second-most pass plays in Week 1, running a play every 21.6 seconds, the third-fastest. Dak Prescott threw for 391 yards, completing 42 of his 58 passes for three touchdowns. Relying heavily on Amari Cooper’s big-play ability, Prescott targeted the star wideout 16 times, catching 13 passes for 139 and two touchdowns.
Aside from Cooper, CeeDee Lamb and Dalton Schultz play a role in the Cowboy’s receiving corps and should see opportunities their way. With Michael Gallup on the IR, look for Cedrick Wilson to absorb Gallup’s target share.
Dating back to last season, the Dallas pass-catchers have a strong positive correlation to the quarterback (0.61 correlation coefficient of WR1 to QB) and can be stacked in various configurations. However, don’t rule out running back Ezekiel Elliot as a viable option. Elliot will face a Chargers defense that allowed 126 rushing yards to Washington last week, the 11th highest mark of the week and PFF has the Chargers ranked as a middling rush defense after Week 1.
Despite a lower scoring 20-16 win over the Washington Football Team, the Los Angeles Chargers ran 78 plays, third-most of the week, 68% of which were designed pass plays. Justin Herbert threw for 337 yards, completed 31 of his 47 passes with one touchdown. Keenan Allen remains a favorite target of Herbert, getting peppered 13 times for nine receptions and 100 passing yards.
After Allen, look for Mike Williams and tight end Jared Cook to see looks throughout Sunday’s matchup. The Chargers make for an exciting stack or bring-back correlation, especially facing a Dallas defense who struggles in the passing game. Last week, the Cowboys allowed the second-most passing yards, with Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady passing for more than 430 yards.
Tennessee Titans at Seattle Seahawks
In a 28-16 win over the Indianapolis Colts, Russell Wilson was in mid-season form to open the 2021 season, going 18-for-23 for 254 yards and four touchdowns. Using a balanced 49%/51% pass-to-rush rate, Seattle ran 53 plays last week, the sixth-least.
Don’t let the low play rate create cause for concern. The Seahawks should keep the foot on the pedal, using a 16% no-huddle rate last week, the fourth-highest. Wilson and the Seahawks face a Tennessee Titans defense that allowed 280 passing yards and 136 rush yards in a 38-13 loss to the Arizona Cardinals. Although Seattle tends to focus on a condensed receiving corps of Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf, tight end Gerald Everett should factor as a stacking option. Chris Carson could see a heavy workload again in the backfield, carrying the ball 16 times for 91 yards in the season opener.
The Tennessee Titans are known for their speed but fell flat in a loss to the Arizona Cardinals in Week 1, generating 248 total yards on offense. Ryan Tannehill threw for 162 yards, the fourth-lowest among quarterbacks, completing 21 of his 35 pass attempts for one touchdown. Opening as a 5-point underdog, the Titans will likely need to keep pace and up the tempo from their sluggish Week 1 start, relying on the big-play abilities of Julio Jones, A.J. Brown and Derrick Henry. The trio of Tennessee weapons correlates to lineups as a complement to the condensed target tree of the Seahawks.
Despite playing in a tough game environment in Seattle, the Titans’ core of playmakers remain viable options every week because of their tremendous upside. Per the Trends tool, Titans wide receivers have averaged 13 DraftKings points and a +2.73 Plus/Minus last season as the visitor in matchups over a 50-point total.
Proceed with Caution
New England Patriots at New York Jets
At open, this AFC East matchup has a 43-point total, the lowest on the slate.
New England opened the season with a 17-16 loss with the Miami Dolphins, calling 70 plays, using a 57%/43% pass-to-run ratio, running a play every 28 seconds, the sixth-slowest among teams. Mac Jones threw for 281 yards and one touchdown, completing 29 of his 39 pass attempts in his NFL debut.
Jakobi Meyer and Nelson Agholor led the Patriots in targets, with nine and seven, respectively, and tight end Jonnu Smith looks to be the preferred option at tight end, going 5-for-5 for 41 yards. Although running back, Damien Harris led the backfield with 23 touches for 100 yards, keep an eye on running back James White, who should remain a pass-catching option for Jones. White was targeted seven times in Week 1, catching six passes for 49 yards. While the matchup against a New York Jets team that has struggled defensively might look appealing, the Patriots still look to build on team chemistry and might need another week to get the offense moving.
That said, Damien Harris could be a solid value on DraftKings with his 77% Bargain Rating in our models.
The Jets, led by rookie quarterback Zach Wilson, are coming off a 14-19 loss to the Carolina Panthers, calling 60 plays with a 72%/28% pass-to-run ratio. Wilson threw for 258 yards and two touchdowns, completing 20 of his 37 pass attempts. With wide receiver Jamison Crowder on the COVID-19 reserve and Keelan Cole inactive for Week 1, Corey Davis saw most of the Jets’ passing volume. Targeted seven times, Davis caught five passes for 97 yards and two touchdowns. Sunday’s matchup looks like a tough test for Wilson, facing a Patriots defense that allowed the seventh-fewest yards last week with 259 yards.
Interestingly, the Patriots and Jets both ranked toward the bottom of teams in no-huddle rate, which may indicate a lower-scoring affair for Week 2.
Chicago Bears at Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati’s offense lends itself to airing the ball down the field. In a Week 1 27-24 overtime win over the Minnesota Vikings, Joe Burrow threw for 267 yards, completing 20 of his 27 pass attempts, with two touchdowns.
However, the Bengals methodically moved down the field, calling 59 plays, using a 48%/52% pass-to-run splits and averaging 29.3 seconds per snap, the third-slowest of the Week. Ja’Marr Chase seems to be the preferred target for Burrow, catching five passes for 101 yards and one touchdown, but expect Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd to impact the receiving corps.
Chicago could run into issues against the Bengals’ rush defense that ranks second in rush DVOA after the first week. A pass-first play script might limit David Montgomery, forcing Andy Dalton to depend on Allen Robinson as the lead receiver. In the Bear’s Week 1 14-34 loss, Robinson was targeted 11 times, catching six passes for 35 yards.
The Bears called 75 passes in Week 1, using a 62%/38% pass-to-run split, which might prove favorable, facing a Bengals defense that allowed 336 passing yards to the Vikings, the sixth-most on the week.
