In the weekly Fantasy Trends, I leverage the Trends tool to find quarterbacks, wide receivers and, running backs with notable data points for the upcoming main slate. For more of our weekly football content, visit our NFL Content Dashboard.
High-Ceiling Running Backs on High-Volume Teams
Offensive Projected Plays: 60 or more
Ceiling Projection: 22.0 Fanduel points or more
This is a strong trend (in terms of Plus/Minus and Consistency Rating) that leverages team play volume to get at running back usage upside.
Ty Montgomery – Packers
Montgomery played on 90.2 percent of the team’s Week 1 snaps (per the Week 2 Market Share Report), but he is still priced outside of the top 12 running backs on all major daily fantasy platforms. Montgomery is favored by the trend as a cheap workhorse on a Packers team projected to run a lot of plays. In our Models we’re projecting Montgomery to be the highest-owned back across all platforms; he’s desirable in cash games but perhaps too chalky for guaranteed prize pools. If you play him in GPPs, differentiate the rest of your lineup with our Lineup Builder.
For more on Montgomery and others, see our Week 2 running back breakdown.
Rob Kelley – Redskins
With a projected ownership of under five percent, Kelley could be a good running back to pair with Montgomery in tournament lineups. Kelley underperformed in Week 1 with only 30 rushing yards, but he still had over 75 percent of his team’s rush attempts and figures to see a large portion of the carries in Week 2. The Redskins are implied for only 21.5 points (per our Vegas Dashboard), but that total’s high enough to give Kelley a chance of scoring a touchdown and hitting value at his price.
Marshawn Lynch – Raiders
The Raiders currently stand as 13.0-point favorites against an abysmal Jets team that was torched by LeSean McCoy for 159 scrimmage yards in Week 1. The Raiders will likely enjoy a run-heavy game script, and their 28.25-point total gives them a reasonable chance to score multiple touchdowns via the running game. Despite splitting snaps with the supplementary backs on his team, Lynch has multi-touchdown upside.
High-Volume Home Passers
Average Pass Attempts: 36 or more
Home Team
This DraftKings trend screens for voluminous passers in good situations. Note that their ownership rates have not historically been prohibitive. The two highlighted quarterbacks have averaged 36 or more attempts per game for five consecutive seasons.
Drew Brees – Saints
Playing at the Superdome (the Coors Field of fantasy football), Brees faces the Patriots in a game with a slate-high over/under of 55.5 points. Currently a 6.0-point underdog, Brees will likely have a pass-heavy game script for most of the contest, making him an excellent pivot off of Patriots quarterback Tom Brady, whom we project to have the slate’s highest DraftKings ownership.
Ben Roethlisberger – Steelers
Famed for his home/road splits, Roethlisberger is a 5.5-point favorite against the Vikings at Heinz Field. While wide receiver Antonio Brown is expected to see double-digit ownership on FanDuel and DraftKings, Roethlisberger is projected for no more than eight percent on both sites. Roethlisberger’s production is closely linked to that of his WR1 with a correlation coefficient of 0.49 (per our Correlations Matrix). Based on a review of expensive stacks in the Week 1 DraftKings Millionaire Maker (per our DFS Contests Dashboard), it should be possible to stack Roethlisberger and Brown while also creating unique and viable lineups.
For more on Brees, Roethlisberger, and others, see our Week 2 quarterback breakdown.
High-Floor Receivers with Big Spreads
Floor Projection: 6.0 DraftKings points or more
Team Spread: -6.0 or greater
This trend isolates safe receivers (via our innovative floor projections) on teams implied to outscore their opponents heavily.
Brandin Cooks & Chris Hogan – Patriots
Brandin Cooks’ Week 1 performance wasn’t great (3/88/0), but he did lead the team with 19.4 percent of the targets and 26.0 percent of the air yards. As the leading receiver on a Brady-led team, Cooks gets a #RevengeGame against a Saints defense that just allowed Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen both to score 27.7 DraftKings points in Week 1. Expected to run many of his routes against rookie cornerback Marshon Lattimore, Cooks is in a fantastic spot (per our Matchups Dashboard). Chris Hogan is also in a great spot. He fell flat in Week 1 (1/8/0), but his 106 air yards on five targets suggest that he will have down-field opportunities in Week 2 as a play in guaranteed prize pools. After lineups lock, check out Hogan’s ownership trends across GPPs of various buy-in levels with our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Doug Baldwin – Seahawks
The Seahawks roster was a fantasy wasteland in their Week 1 loss to the Packers. In Week 2, though, the Seahawks should rebound against the 49ers as slate-best 14-point favorites. Although Seattle could have a run-heavy game script, leading receiver Doug Baldwin should still have sufficient opportunities to accrue points.
Larry Fitzgerald – Cardinals
With David Johnson out (per our Week 2 Injury Dashboard) the Cardinals have to look elsewhere for offensive production. Even in a three-interception game for quarterback Carson Palmer, Larry Fitzgerald still put up six receptions for 74 yards on 13 targets. In Week 2, Fitzgerald could dominate in the slot against the Colts, who in Week 1 allowed Cooper Kupp to turn six targets into a 4/76/1 performance in his NFL debut.
For more on Fitz and others, see our Week 2 wide receiver breakdown.
Good luck this week and be sure to research for yourself with our entire suite of Tools.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NFL news feed:
