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NFL Week 2 Fantasy RB Breakdown: Todd Gurley to Crush Cardinals as Big Home Favorite

Los Angeles Rams running back Todd Gurley (30) carries the ball in the fourth quarter against the Oakland Raiders at the Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum. The Rams defeated the Raiders 33-13.

Week 1 of the NFL regular season was one for the ages: The double-digit underdog (+10) Buccaneers beat the Saints in a shootout on the road, the Packers overcame a 20-point deficit to beat the Bears in the final minutes of Sunday night’s matchup and the traveling Jets (+7) withstood a first-play pick-six from rookie quarterback Sam Darnold to destroy the Lions, 48-17.

And, of course, the Browns managed not to lose.

Week 2 should be equally fantastic, with a teeming main slate on Sunday, Sept. 16 that kicks off at 1 p.m. ET.

For analysis on the smaller slates, consult Chris Raybon’s premium strategy pieces (released throughout the week).

In writing this piece, I’ve relied primarily on the FantasyLabs Models. This breakdown is less of a comprehensive analysis of each running back and more of an introduction to this week’s players via our large suite of analytic DFS Tools. We’ll start with five high-priced running backs, follow with three rushers at the top of our individual Pro Models and finish with the rest of the slate’s fantasy-relevant backs.

For updates on Vegas spreads and over/unders, check out The Action Network Live Odds page.


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Jump to: The Five Priciest RBs | At the Top of Our Models | Rundown of the Rest
 

Highest-Priced Running Backs

The same five running backs occupy the top of the salary scale across sites this week.

  • Alvin Kamara: $9,500 DraftKings; $9,000 FanDuel
  • Todd Gurley: $9,200 DraftKings; $8,900 FanDuel
  • Le’Veon Bell: $9,000 DraftKings; $8,400 FanDuel
  • David Johnson: $8,200 DraftKings; $8,400 FanDuel
  • Melvin Gordon: $7,400 DraftKings; $8,200 FanDuel

Alvin Kamara: New Orleans Saints (-8.5) vs. Cleveland Browns, 49.5 over/under

Last year Kamara joined Pro Football Hall-of-Famer Charley Taylor and College Football HOFer Herschel Walker as one of only three rookies in NFL history with 700 yards as both a rusher and receiver. Then in Week 1 he scored a slate-best 46.1 DraftKings points with 141 yards and three touchdowns from scrimmage on eight carries and 12 targets (nine receptions), good for a logic-defying +25.73 Plus/Minus. With teammate Mark Ingram (suspension) out, Kamara saw 80% of the team’s backfield opportunities, and he led the league last week with seven touches inside the red zone.

Regression will eventually come, but Week 2 might be as kind to Kamara as Week 1 was. The Saints are big home favorites, and in his eight such games, Kamara has been at his point-per-reception (PPR) best.

  • Kamara as a home favorite (8 games): 24.1 PPR points, 9.6 rushes and 7.1 targets, 109.6 scrimmage yards, 1.25 all-purpose touchdowns
  • Kamara in all other situations (9 games): 18.1 PPR points, 5.7 rushes and 6.2 targets, 90.9 scrimmage yards, 0.66 all-purpose touchdowns

Like quarterback Drew Brees, Kamara has significant home/road and favorite/dog splits. After this week, the Saints will play at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome just once before November: If you’re looking to roster Kamara at the Coors Field of fantasy football, this is your opportunity.

Drew-Brees-Alvin-Kamara

Credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports

The Superdome has an A-graded 56-39-2 over/under record with Brees at quarterback. Even though the Browns were tough against the Steelers last week, holding Pittsburgh to 21 points in a 70-minute game and forcing six turnovers, Cleveland did allow a backup running back — albeit a great backup — to slash the Browns on the ground and through the air for 38.2 DraftKings points.

Last year, the Browns rush defense was fourth with a 21.6% mark in Football Outsiders’ DVOA, but their pass defense against running backs ranked 30th (24.9%). Given that the Browns allowed the second-most points in the league (25.6 per game) in 2017, Kamara could get a lot of action in a high-scoring game.

Kamara will have a high ownership rate in guaranteed prize pools, but it’s warranted given his upside. When constructing tournament lineups, use our Lineup Builder to stack Kamara with Brees. Since 2014, No. 1 backs on average have had a 0.29 correlation with their quarterbacks. With Brees, Kamara has had a personal-high 0.55 correlation.

Some DFS players don’t like to use quarterback-running back stacks, and they also try to avoid chalky players. But in GPPs, it’s fine to stack a receiving back with his passer, and it’s fine to eat chalk.

Example: The Saints were heavily owned in the Week 1 DraftKings Millionaire Maker. Kamara was the most exposed player at 33.51%, and Brees was the most popular quarterback (11.86%). Together, they were rostered in 5.24% of lineups. That might seem high, but the occurrence of that combination drops to a manageable 0.19% when the chalky James Conner (25.54%) and tight end Rob Gronkowski (20.78%) are added to the mix. Additionally, in the top 100 Milly Maker lineups, Brees (43%) and Kamara (86%) were two of the five highest-owned players.

In GPPs, it’s more than OK to stack a three-down back with the guy who throws him the ball, even if they’re both popular, especially if the back is one of Kamara’s caliber. This week, Kamara is tied for the position lead with 17 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where he leads all backs with a 99% Bargain Rating.

Todd Gurley: Los Angeles Rams (-12) vs. Arizona Cardinals, 45.5 O/U

As mentioned on the midweek edition of The Action Network NFL Podcast, most DFS players will be deciding between Kamara and Gurley this week. As great as Kamara is, Gurley was the No. 1 fantasy back last year (league-high 2,093 yards and 19 touchdowns from scrimmage in 15 games). He also had 147 yards and a touchdown on 25 opportunities (20 rushes plus five targets) in Week 1 and he’s cheaper than Kamara, even though the Rams are the slate’s biggest home favorite.

Gurley is the lead back for the No. 2 team in The Action Network Power Rankings: It’s hard to find reasons not to play him.

Because of his reliable volume, Gurley easily has the highest ceiling, median and floor projections among all backs in our Models, and he’s tied with Kamara for the position lead with 17 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where he just happens to be the No. 1 back in literally all of our Pro Models. For good measure, Gurley is also the No. 1 DraftKings back in the Levitan Model.

If there’s one potential area of concern, it’s Gurley’s matchup with the Cardinals defense, which last year was first against the run with a -24.4% DVOA — but that was with a different coaching staff. Just last week, the Cardinals allowed two different backs — one a 33-year-old two-down grinder with 3.1 yards per carry over the previous two seasons, the other a low-volume scatback returning from a season-ending knee injury — each to have 60+ yards rushing, 60+ yards receiving and a touchdown.

With an offense that last week looked lucky to score six points, the Cardinals could struggle to sustain drives against the Rams, who could have extra offensive opportunities as a result. Gurley should smash.

Le’Veon Bell (& James Conner): Pittsburgh Steelers (-5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs, 52.5 O/U

UPDATE (9/16): Bell is not on the Week 2 depth chart and will not play this week.

Bell missed Week 1 with his contract holdout and as of writing is still yet to sign his $14.54-million franchise tender. When on the field, Bell is perhaps the best back in the game: He finished last season first among all backs with a 91.7% snap share and 89.3% opportunity share (per PlayerProfiler.com), as well as 321 carries and 85 receptions. Since his 2014 breakout, Bell has smoked all other backs with 23.3 PPR points per game. (Kamara is second with 21.4.)

But it seems that Bell has no intentions of reporting to the team this week. Don’t panic if Bell’s on your fantasy team, though — he’s likely to return this season. But this week you should make alternative plans.

James-Conner

Credit: Scott R. Galvin-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: James Conner

In Bell’s place we should once again expect to see second-year backup James Conner ($6,700 DraftKings; $7,000 FanDuel), who destroyed the Browns in Week 1 with a slate-high 192 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns on 31 carries and six targets (five receptions). In the absence of Bell, Conner got literally every Steelers backfield touch. Even though the game went 70 minutes, Conner played 91.7% of the snaps. He perhaps got some extra run because the Browns-Steelers game had horrible weather (heavy rain, winds of 20+ miles per hour). In general, those conditions favor running backs. But his performance wasn’t the result of just weather: Conner is also really good.

He rushed for 4.5 yards per carry as a rookie, and he has a combination of size (6-foot-1 and 233 pounds), draft pedigree (third-round selection) and college production (4,145 yards and 56 touchdowns in 39 games) that tends to translate into NFL success. He was targeted just once last year, but as a Pitt senior he had a 21-302-4 receiving campaign, and as he demonstrated last week: He has three-down ability. Even when Bell returns, Conner might get double-digit carries each game — and next year the lead-back job will almost certainly be his.

Given his matchup against a Chiefs defense that last week gave up a league-high 54.3 DraftKings points to running backs and last year was last against the run with a 3.0% DVOA, Conner is projected for an ownership rate in excess of 30%, and he’s the No. 1 back in the Raybon Model.

David Johnson: Arizona Cardinals (+12) at Los Angeles Rams, 45.5 O/U

In the words of BBC’s Moriarty, “It’s not the fall that kills you, Sherlock. … It’s the landing.” And it was the roughest of Week 1 landings for the Cardinals and 2017’s No. 1 fantasy pick.

After missing all but 46 snaps last year with a random wrist injury and signing a $39-million extension right before the 2018 season started, Johnson was expected to play as the lead back in a run-heavy offense coordinated. Instead, he saw the small-school rookie Chase Edmonds ($4,500 DraftKings; $5,000 FanDuel) get 32.1% of the snaps and eight backfield opportunities. If not for a meaningless touchdown to put the Cardinals on the board with 5:47 left, Johnson would’ve been a stone-cold disaster in his 2018 debut.

Even so, there are some positive takeaways from Week 1: Johnson had 18 opportunities in total, he was second on the team with nine targets to wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald‘s 10, and Johnson had a league-high five opportunities (one rush and four targets) inside the 10-yard line. Even though the Cardinals (after the Bills) had the second-least productive offense of Week 1 — their skill-position players had just 53.75 PPR points among them — Johnson still finished as the fantasy RB14, and he had a high 32.9% of the team’s PPR output. For comparison, Kamara (28.9%), Gurley (27.3%) and Conner (32.5%) all had lower market shares of offensive production last week. If the Cardinals offense improves even a little, that could result in a big jump for Johnson.

But Johnson has a tough matchup this week. Even though the Rams last year allowed the league’s second-most fantasy points to opposing backfields (21.1 fantasy points per game), they should be stronger now thanks to the addition of Ndamukong Suh, Pro Football Focus’ No. 3 defensive tackle against the run in 2017 (90.6 PFF grade in rush defense). It’s not for nothing that we’re projecting the Rams defense to be one the most popular DFS units this week. As a double-digit road dog, Johnson might benefit from a few extra targets, but he’s unlikely to have the game script necessary to support heavy rushing volume. Johnson is a GPP-only play.

Melvin-Gordon

Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Melvin Gordon: Los Angeles Chargers (-7) at Buffalo Bills, 43 O/U

MG3 is one of just three backs (along with Gurley and Bell) with 250+ carries and 50+ targets in each of the past two seasons, and now he has the dreamiest of matchups against a Bills defense that last year allowed a league-high 29.1 DraftKings points per game to opposing backfields. As usual, Gordon in Week 1 wasn’t notably efficient as a runner (4.3 yards per carry), and it’s a little worrisome that he didn’t have a red-zone touch — because Gordon lives on touchdowns, and only one of his 24 scores has come from outside the 20-yard line — but he did have 15 carries and was targeted a position-high 13 times. In total, he had 166 scrimmage yards, and he added a two-point conversion. It’s hard to take umbrage with a 27.6-point DraftKings performance.

What’s encouraging — especially since the Chargers lost to the Chiefs — is that Gordon was still able to produce despite the presence of ace change-of-pace back Austin Ekeler ($4,400 DraftKings; $5,600 FanDuel), who turned five rushes and five targets (on just 22 snaps) into 126 yards and a touchdown. While Ekeler’s efficiency is likely to regress, it’s possible that he could be a viable fantasy contributor in 2018, given his college production (7,072 yards and 63 touchdowns from scrimmage in 40 games), physical profile (5-feet-9, 199 pounds, 4.43-second 40 time, 6.85-second three-cone) and NFL role (latter-day Danny Woodhead).

Ekeler has had at least six opportunities in eight career games (with six such games in his last nine appearances). He’s averaged 13.3 DraftKings points per game with the requisite circumstances. Last year, the Bills frequently allowed backup and change-of-pace backs to produce. In 16 games, 23 backs had at least 8.0 DraftKings points against them. Ekeler himself even had 13.8 against them on eight touches while MG3 had 14.0 on 20 touches in a 54-24 route.

With an offense that last week managed a league-worst 2.5 yards per play and this week is giving inaccurate rookie quarterback Josh Allen his first start, the Bills could give a lot of extra series to the Chargers offense. Gordon could approach 25 touches and is the No. 1 back in the SportsGeek Model.

Model Running Backs

Besides Gurley, Gordon and Conner, there are three running backs atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek) and I have constructed.

  • Kareem Hunt: $6,200 DraftKings; $7,800 FanDuel
  • Royce Freeman: $4,300 DraftKings; $6,000 FanDuel
  • Peyton Barber: $4,000 DraftKings; $6,200 FanDuel

Kareem Hunt: Kansas City Chiefs (+4) at Pittsburgh, 52.5 O/U

Considering that the Chiefs offense scored only 38 points and averaged 6.6 yards per play against a stout Chargers defense and now are in the game with the highest over/under, Hunt has generated almost no buzz across the industry this week. We’re projecting him for less than double-digit ownership, which is notable since he averaged a 21.3% rate last year in his league-leading 1,327-yard rushing campaign.

A three-down back with an NFL-high 137 evaded tackles in 2017, Hunt is one of just 10 players in NFL history with 250+ carries and 50+ receptions as a rookie: In that group are Hall-of-Famers Eric Dickerson, LaDainian Tomlinson and Marshall Faulk as well as lesser legends Edgerrin James and Matt Forte.

Why is Hunt being ignored? Because last week, in quarterback Patrick Mahomes’ first game as the full-time starter, Hunt had just 49 yards. On top of that, he had just one target.

People are acting as if Hunt is now horrible. That’s a massive overreaction.

  • Hunt played 71.4% of the offensive snaps.
  • Hunt had 17 total opportunities.
  • Hunt was targeted on second-and-goal at the one-yard line.

Ever since Steelers linebacker Ryan Shazier (back) suffered a debilitating injury in the first quarter of the team’s Week 13 game against the Bengals last season, they have been intensely vulnerable to running backs. In their seven Shazier-less games (including Week 13 and playoffs and Week 1 of 2018), the Steelers have allowed opposing backfields to average 31.6 DraftKings points. For reference: The Bills allowed an NFL-worst 29.1 DraftKings points per game last year.

With his three-down role and matchup, Hunt is the highest-rated DraftKings back in the Bales and CSURAM88 Models.

Royce Freeman: Denver Broncos (-6) vs. Oakland Raiders, 46 O/U

In Week 1, undrafted scatback Phillip Lindasy ($4,400 DraftKings; $4,900 FanDuel) unexpectedly crashed Freeman’s Week 1 party while the anticipated nuisance Devontae Booker ($3,700 DraftKings; $5,200 FanDuel) showed up but managed not to cause a scene.

  • Freeman: 7.1 DraftKings points, 29 snaps (39.2%), 15 carries, 71 yards rushing, zero touchdowns
  • Lindsay: 18.2 DraftKings points, 26 snaps (35.1%), 15 carries, 71 yards rushing, three targets, two receptions, 31 yards receiving, one touchdown
  • Booker: 3.5 DraftKings points, 19 snaps (25.7%), two carries, four yards rushing, two targets, two receptions, 11 yards receiving

Even with that upside-killing backfield split, Freeman is the No. 1 DraftKings back in my Model. Why? Lindsay was great in college, averaging 1,738 yards and 16 touchdowns from scrimmage across his two final seasons, but his physical profile (5-feet-7, 185 pounds, 4.38-second 40 time) suggests that he will ultimately be a change-of-pace and pass-catching back — not one who steals 15 carries per game from a big-and-athletic third-round with pass-catching ability — and that’s what Freeman is.

Basically, I’m betting that eventually Freeman’s talent will lead to a bigger role, and that could happen this week.

Royce-Freeman

Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

The Broncos are significant home favorites, and they are hosting the Raiders, who might struggle at elevation on short rest (they played the late game on Monday night). Additionally, after trading away their top edge defender in Khalil Mack (four straight PFF run defense grades of 89+), the Raiders gave up 31.0 DraftKings points to Rams running backs in Week 1, and now the Raiders will be without run-stopping defensive tackle Justin Ellis (foot, injured reserve) and maybe defensive tackle P.J. Hall (ankle, questionable).

Freeman isn’t Gurley, but he still might be good enough to exploit the Raiders at a projected ownership rate of less than 5%.

Peyton Barber: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) vs. Philadelphia, 44 O/U

The Bucs put up a slate-high 48 points and 8.5 yards per play on the road against the Saints in Week 1, and yet their starting running back had only 69 yards. (Side note: Nice.) As a result, Barber is the cheapest No. 1 back on the DraftKings slate — he’s even $100 cheaper than he was last week — and that’s probably a mistake. Although he had just one goal-line attempt and no targets, he still had 19 carries and played 48 snaps (72.7%). All others Bucs backs combined for just four opportunities. Barber is still the unquestioned leader in the backfield, and as such he’s averaged 18.5 opportunities and 11.5 DraftKings points per game since Week 13 of last year.

Barber won’t have an easy matchup against the Eagles rush defense, which last year was second with a -21.6% DVOA, but he probably still warrants exposure: He has a locked-in high-volume role, and his low salary provides significant roster optionality. Plus, last year he had a 0.9% ownership rate in his five lead-back games. After his disappointing Week 1 performance, he could have a rate approaching that mark.

Barber offers significant GPP upside as the highest-rated DraftKings back in the Koerner Model.

Running Back Rundown

Here’s a quick look at the remaining fantasy-relevant backs on the slate.

Christian McCaffrey & C.J. Anderson: Carolina Panthers (+6) at Atlanta, 44.5

  • McCaffrey: $7,000 DraftKings; $7,400 FanDuel
  • Anderson: $3,900 DraftKings; $5,300 FanDuel
  • McCaffrey has underperformed as a road dog with 12.0 DraftKings points per game (-2.72 Plus/Minus) at 10.2% ownership; Anderson might see more carries in the “Jonathan Stewart role” with tight end Greg Olsen (foot) out.

Leonard Fournette & T.J. Yeldon: Jacksonville Jaguars (+1) vs. New England Patriots, 45 O/U

UPDATE (9/16): The Jaguars are reportedly expecting Fournette (hamstring) not to play in Week 2.

  • Fournette: $6,800 DraftKings; $7,700 FanDuel
  • Yeldon: $5,600 DraftKings; $6,200 FanDuel
  • Fournette (hamstring, questionable) is likely to be a game-time decision and limited if he plays; Yeldon averaged 12.7 PPR points per game last year without Fournette while splitting snaps with the absent Chris Ivory.

Dalvin Cook & Latavius Murray: Minnesota Vikings (+1) at Green Bay Packers, 46.5 O/U

  • Cook: $6,500 DraftKings; $6,500 FanDuel
  • Murray: $4,600 DraftKings; $5,500 FanDuel
  • Cook played 80.3% of the snaps and had 22 touches in Week 1; Murray saw carries on 11 of his 14 snaps.

Jay Ajayi, Darren Sproles & Corey Clement: Philadelphia Eagles (-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 44 O/U

UPDATE (9/16): Sproles (hamstring) has been ruled out for Week 2.

  • Ajayi: $6,300 DraftKings; $6,800 FanDuel
  • Sproles: $4,700 DraftKings; $5,000 FanDuel
  • Clement: $3,500 DraftKings; $5,000 FanDuel
  • Ajayi had 12 of his 15 Week 1 runs after half time; Sproles has averaged 10.7 opportunities and 54.3 yards per game under head coach Doug Pederson; Clement was the third wheel last week with just 13 snaps (18.1%).

Devonta Freeman & Tevin Coleman: Atlanta Falcons (-6) vs. Carolina Panthers, 44.5 O/U

UPDATE (9/16): Freeman (knee) has been ruled out for Week 2 and is expected to miss 2-3 weeks.

  • Freeman: $6,000 DraftKings; $6,800 FanDuel
  • Coleman: $5,300 DraftKings; $5,900 FanDuel
  • Freeman as a home favorite averaged 22.8 DraftKings points per game with OC Kyle Shanahan (2015-16) but has just 14.5 with OC Steve Sarkisian (2017); Coleman, 8.9 with Shanny but 12.0 with Sark.

Adrian Peterson & Chris Thompson: Washington Redskins (-6) vs. Indianapolis Colts, 47 O/U

  • Peterson: $5,500 DraftKings; $6,700 FanDuel
  • Thompson: $5,900 DraftKings; $6,200 FanDuel
  • The Colts defense was 32nd (28.5%) in rush DVOA and 31st (27.9%) in pass DVOA against running backs last year.

Kenyan Drake & Frank Gore: Miami Dolphins (+3) at New York Jets, 44 O/U

  • Drake: $5,800 DraftKings; $6,600 FanDuel
  • Gore: $3,900 DraftKings; $5,300 FanDuel
  • Drake has had 16+ opportunities in six straight games; Gore touched the ball on half of his 18 Week 1 snaps.
LeSean-McCoy

Credit: Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports

LeSean McCoy: Buffalo Bills (+7) vs. Los Angeles Chargers, 43 O/U

  • $5,700 DraftKings; $6,800 FanDuel
  • Rage, rage against the dying of the light.

Lamar Miller & Alfred Blue: Houston Texans (-2.5) at Tennessee Titans, 45 O/U

  • Miller: $5,400 DraftKings; $6,800 FanDuel
  • Blue: $3,900 DraftKings; $5,200 FanDuel
  • Miller is perpetually undervalued and leads the position with 81% DraftKings and 79% FanDuel leverage scores; Blue converted his only Week 1 goal-line carry and is an annoying vulture picking at Miller’s living flesh.

Derrick Henry & Dion Lewis: Tennessee Titans (+2.5) vs. Houston Texans, 45 O/U

  • Henry: $5,200 DraftKings; $6,200 FanDuel
  • Lewis: $5,000 DraftKings; $6,500 FanDuel
  • Henry played just 20 snaps (29.0%) in Week 1 even though the Titans didn’t have negative game flow till the end of the fourth quarter; Lewis turned his 24 opportunities into 22.0 DraftKings points.

Jamaal Williams & Ty Montgomery: Green Bay Packers (-1) vs. Minnesota Vikings, 46.5 O/U

  • Williams: $5,200 DraftKings; $6,100 FanDuel
  • Montgomery: $3,700 DraftKings; $5,700 FanDuel
  • Williams has an average of 21 opportunities per game since becoming the lead back in Week 10 last year; Montgomery ran routes or pass-blocked on 21-of-23 Week 1 snaps (91.3%).

Bilal Powell & Isaiah Crowell: New York Jets (-3) vs. Miami Dolphins, 44 O/U

  • Powell: $5,100 DraftKings; $6,200 FanDuel
  • Crowell: $4,600 DraftKings; $6,400 FanDuel
  • Powell and Crowell both had 24 Week 1 carries; Powell had 14 opportunities to Crowell’s 10, although Crowell had four red-zone carries to Powell’s zero.

Marshawn Lynch, Doug Martin & Jalen Richard: Oakland Raiders (+6) at Denver Broncos, 46 O/U

  • Lynch: $5,100 DraftKings; $6,300 FanDuel
  • Martin: $3,900 DraftKings; $5,100 FanDuel
  • Richard: $3,400 DraftKings; $4,600 FanDuel
  • Lynch was the only Raiders back in Week 1 to touch the ball in the red zone (three carries); Martin saw usage on 6-of-9 snaps but didn’t get an opportunity after half time; Eleven of Richard’s team-high 14 touches came in the hurry-up drive to close the second quarter and two meaningless drives to close the fourth quarter.
Duke-Johnson-Carlos-Hyde

Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

Carlos Hyde & Duke Johnson: Cleveland Browns (+8.5) at New Orleans Saints, 49.5 O/U

  • Hyde: $4,900 DraftKings; $6,300 FanDuel
  • Johnson: $4,200 DraftKings; $5,200 FanDuel
  • Hyde got literally every one of his 23 Week 1 touches on first and second down; Johnson got all his carries and targets with 7+ yards to go for first down.

Matt Breida, Alfred Morris & Kyle Juszczyk: San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) vs. Detroit Lions, 48 O/U

  • Breida: $4,800 DraftKings; $6,100 FanDuel
  • Morris: $3,600 DraftKings; $5,800 FanDuel
  • Juszczyk: $3,200 DraftKings; $4,500 FanDuel
  • Breida led the 49ers with 13 Week 1 opportunities; Morris had only three second-half touches; Juicy has averaged 3.7 targets and 41.8 receiving yards per game in quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo’s six starts with the 49ers.

LeGarrette Blount, Kerryon Johnson & Theo Riddick: Detroit Lions (+6.5) at San Francisco 49ers, 48 O/U

  • Blount: $4,500 DraftKings; $5,300 FanDuel
  • Johnson: $4,200 DraftKings; $6,100 FanDuel
  • Riddick: $4,000 DraftKings; $5,400 FanDuel
  • The 49ers have allowed an NFL-high 6,651 yards and 58 touchdowns rushing since former head coach Jim Harbaugh’s departure in 2015.

Rex Burkhead, James White & Sony Michel: New England Patriots (-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars, 45 O/U

  • Burkhead: $4,400 DraftKings; $6,300 FanDuel
  • White: $4,500 DraftKings; $5,900 FanDuel
  • Michel: $4,100 DraftKings; $5,600 FanDuel
  • Burkhead (concussion, questionable) got all but two of his team-high 18 carries in Week 1 on first and second down; White has 17.0 DraftKings points per game since 2016 when he’s gotten double-digit opportunities in quarterback Tom Brady’s starts (including playoffs); first-round rookie Sony Michel could make his first appearance this week and could have 10+ touches if Burkhead sits.

Marlon Mack, Jordan Wilkins & Nyheim Hines: Indianapolis Colts (+6) at Washington Redskins, 47 O/U

  • Mack: $4,500 DraftKings; $6,000 FanDuel
  • Wilkins: $4,400 DraftKings; $6,000 FanDuel
  • Hines: $4,100 DraftKings; $5,500 FanDuel
  • Mack (hamstring) might make his first appearance of the season this week; Wilkins led the backfield with 46 Week 1 snaps (56.1%) and had three touches inside the 10-yard line; Hines is small (5-feet-8 and 198 pounds), but he had nine targets and an 80% success rate on his five carries.

Positional Breakdowns & News

Be sure to read the other Week 2 positional breakdowns.

• Quarterbacks
• Wide Receivers
• Tight Ends

For more in-depth NFL analysis information, check out The Action Network.

After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.



Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.

Photo credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Pictured above: Todd Gurley

Week 1 of the NFL regular season was one for the ages: The double-digit underdog (+10) Buccaneers beat the Saints in a shootout on the road, the Packers overcame a 20-point deficit to beat the Bears in the final minutes of Sunday night’s matchup and the traveling Jets (+7) withstood a first-play pick-six from rookie quarterback Sam Darnold to destroy the Lions, 48-17.

And, of course, the Browns managed not to lose.

Week 2 should be equally fantastic, with a teeming main slate on Sunday, Sept. 16 that kicks off at 1 p.m. ET.

For analysis on the smaller slates, consult Chris Raybon’s premium strategy pieces (released throughout the week).

In writing this piece, I’ve relied primarily on the FantasyLabs Models. This breakdown is less of a comprehensive analysis of each running back and more of an introduction to this week’s players via our large suite of analytic DFS Tools. We’ll start with five high-priced running backs, follow with three rushers at the top of our individual Pro Models and finish with the rest of the slate’s fantasy-relevant backs.

For updates on Vegas spreads and over/unders, check out The Action Network Live Odds page.


>> Sign up for The Action Network’s daily newsletter to get the smartest NFL conversation delivered into your inbox each morning.


Jump to: The Five Priciest RBs | At the Top of Our Models | Rundown of the Rest
 

Highest-Priced Running Backs

The same five running backs occupy the top of the salary scale across sites this week.

  • Alvin Kamara: $9,500 DraftKings; $9,000 FanDuel
  • Todd Gurley: $9,200 DraftKings; $8,900 FanDuel
  • Le’Veon Bell: $9,000 DraftKings; $8,400 FanDuel
  • David Johnson: $8,200 DraftKings; $8,400 FanDuel
  • Melvin Gordon: $7,400 DraftKings; $8,200 FanDuel

Alvin Kamara: New Orleans Saints (-8.5) vs. Cleveland Browns, 49.5 over/under

Last year Kamara joined Pro Football Hall-of-Famer Charley Taylor and College Football HOFer Herschel Walker as one of only three rookies in NFL history with 700 yards as both a rusher and receiver. Then in Week 1 he scored a slate-best 46.1 DraftKings points with 141 yards and three touchdowns from scrimmage on eight carries and 12 targets (nine receptions), good for a logic-defying +25.73 Plus/Minus. With teammate Mark Ingram (suspension) out, Kamara saw 80% of the team’s backfield opportunities, and he led the league last week with seven touches inside the red zone.

Regression will eventually come, but Week 2 might be as kind to Kamara as Week 1 was. The Saints are big home favorites, and in his eight such games, Kamara has been at his point-per-reception (PPR) best.

  • Kamara as a home favorite (8 games): 24.1 PPR points, 9.6 rushes and 7.1 targets, 109.6 scrimmage yards, 1.25 all-purpose touchdowns
  • Kamara in all other situations (9 games): 18.1 PPR points, 5.7 rushes and 6.2 targets, 90.9 scrimmage yards, 0.66 all-purpose touchdowns

Like quarterback Drew Brees, Kamara has significant home/road and favorite/dog splits. After this week, the Saints will play at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome just once before November: If you’re looking to roster Kamara at the Coors Field of fantasy football, this is your opportunity.

Drew-Brees-Alvin-Kamara

Credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports

The Superdome has an A-graded 56-39-2 over/under record with Brees at quarterback. Even though the Browns were tough against the Steelers last week, holding Pittsburgh to 21 points in a 70-minute game and forcing six turnovers, Cleveland did allow a backup running back — albeit a great backup — to slash the Browns on the ground and through the air for 38.2 DraftKings points.

Last year, the Browns rush defense was fourth with a 21.6% mark in Football Outsiders’ DVOA, but their pass defense against running backs ranked 30th (24.9%). Given that the Browns allowed the second-most points in the league (25.6 per game) in 2017, Kamara could get a lot of action in a high-scoring game.

Kamara will have a high ownership rate in guaranteed prize pools, but it’s warranted given his upside. When constructing tournament lineups, use our Lineup Builder to stack Kamara with Brees. Since 2014, No. 1 backs on average have had a 0.29 correlation with their quarterbacks. With Brees, Kamara has had a personal-high 0.55 correlation.

Some DFS players don’t like to use quarterback-running back stacks, and they also try to avoid chalky players. But in GPPs, it’s fine to stack a receiving back with his passer, and it’s fine to eat chalk.

Example: The Saints were heavily owned in the Week 1 DraftKings Millionaire Maker. Kamara was the most exposed player at 33.51%, and Brees was the most popular quarterback (11.86%). Together, they were rostered in 5.24% of lineups. That might seem high, but the occurrence of that combination drops to a manageable 0.19% when the chalky James Conner (25.54%) and tight end Rob Gronkowski (20.78%) are added to the mix. Additionally, in the top 100 Milly Maker lineups, Brees (43%) and Kamara (86%) were two of the five highest-owned players.

In GPPs, it’s more than OK to stack a three-down back with the guy who throws him the ball, even if they’re both popular, especially if the back is one of Kamara’s caliber. This week, Kamara is tied for the position lead with 17 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where he leads all backs with a 99% Bargain Rating.

Todd Gurley: Los Angeles Rams (-12) vs. Arizona Cardinals, 45.5 O/U

As mentioned on the midweek edition of The Action Network NFL Podcast, most DFS players will be deciding between Kamara and Gurley this week. As great as Kamara is, Gurley was the No. 1 fantasy back last year (league-high 2,093 yards and 19 touchdowns from scrimmage in 15 games). He also had 147 yards and a touchdown on 25 opportunities (20 rushes plus five targets) in Week 1 and he’s cheaper than Kamara, even though the Rams are the slate’s biggest home favorite.

Gurley is the lead back for the No. 2 team in The Action Network Power Rankings: It’s hard to find reasons not to play him.

Because of his reliable volume, Gurley easily has the highest ceiling, median and floor projections among all backs in our Models, and he’s tied with Kamara for the position lead with 17 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where he just happens to be the No. 1 back in literally all of our Pro Models. For good measure, Gurley is also the No. 1 DraftKings back in the Levitan Model.

If there’s one potential area of concern, it’s Gurley’s matchup with the Cardinals defense, which last year was first against the run with a -24.4% DVOA — but that was with a different coaching staff. Just last week, the Cardinals allowed two different backs — one a 33-year-old two-down grinder with 3.1 yards per carry over the previous two seasons, the other a low-volume scatback returning from a season-ending knee injury — each to have 60+ yards rushing, 60+ yards receiving and a touchdown.

With an offense that last week looked lucky to score six points, the Cardinals could struggle to sustain drives against the Rams, who could have extra offensive opportunities as a result. Gurley should smash.

Le’Veon Bell (& James Conner): Pittsburgh Steelers (-5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs, 52.5 O/U

UPDATE (9/16): Bell is not on the Week 2 depth chart and will not play this week.

Bell missed Week 1 with his contract holdout and as of writing is still yet to sign his $14.54-million franchise tender. When on the field, Bell is perhaps the best back in the game: He finished last season first among all backs with a 91.7% snap share and 89.3% opportunity share (per PlayerProfiler.com), as well as 321 carries and 85 receptions. Since his 2014 breakout, Bell has smoked all other backs with 23.3 PPR points per game. (Kamara is second with 21.4.)

But it seems that Bell has no intentions of reporting to the team this week. Don’t panic if Bell’s on your fantasy team, though — he’s likely to return this season. But this week you should make alternative plans.

James-Conner

Credit: Scott R. Galvin-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: James Conner

In Bell’s place we should once again expect to see second-year backup James Conner ($6,700 DraftKings; $7,000 FanDuel), who destroyed the Browns in Week 1 with a slate-high 192 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns on 31 carries and six targets (five receptions). In the absence of Bell, Conner got literally every Steelers backfield touch. Even though the game went 70 minutes, Conner played 91.7% of the snaps. He perhaps got some extra run because the Browns-Steelers game had horrible weather (heavy rain, winds of 20+ miles per hour). In general, those conditions favor running backs. But his performance wasn’t the result of just weather: Conner is also really good.

He rushed for 4.5 yards per carry as a rookie, and he has a combination of size (6-foot-1 and 233 pounds), draft pedigree (third-round selection) and college production (4,145 yards and 56 touchdowns in 39 games) that tends to translate into NFL success. He was targeted just once last year, but as a Pitt senior he had a 21-302-4 receiving campaign, and as he demonstrated last week: He has three-down ability. Even when Bell returns, Conner might get double-digit carries each game — and next year the lead-back job will almost certainly be his.

Given his matchup against a Chiefs defense that last week gave up a league-high 54.3 DraftKings points to running backs and last year was last against the run with a 3.0% DVOA, Conner is projected for an ownership rate in excess of 30%, and he’s the No. 1 back in the Raybon Model.

David Johnson: Arizona Cardinals (+12) at Los Angeles Rams, 45.5 O/U

In the words of BBC’s Moriarty, “It’s not the fall that kills you, Sherlock. … It’s the landing.” And it was the roughest of Week 1 landings for the Cardinals and 2017’s No. 1 fantasy pick.

After missing all but 46 snaps last year with a random wrist injury and signing a $39-million extension right before the 2018 season started, Johnson was expected to play as the lead back in a run-heavy offense coordinated. Instead, he saw the small-school rookie Chase Edmonds ($4,500 DraftKings; $5,000 FanDuel) get 32.1% of the snaps and eight backfield opportunities. If not for a meaningless touchdown to put the Cardinals on the board with 5:47 left, Johnson would’ve been a stone-cold disaster in his 2018 debut.

Even so, there are some positive takeaways from Week 1: Johnson had 18 opportunities in total, he was second on the team with nine targets to wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald‘s 10, and Johnson had a league-high five opportunities (one rush and four targets) inside the 10-yard line. Even though the Cardinals (after the Bills) had the second-least productive offense of Week 1 — their skill-position players had just 53.75 PPR points among them — Johnson still finished as the fantasy RB14, and he had a high 32.9% of the team’s PPR output. For comparison, Kamara (28.9%), Gurley (27.3%) and Conner (32.5%) all had lower market shares of offensive production last week. If the Cardinals offense improves even a little, that could result in a big jump for Johnson.

But Johnson has a tough matchup this week. Even though the Rams last year allowed the league’s second-most fantasy points to opposing backfields (21.1 fantasy points per game), they should be stronger now thanks to the addition of Ndamukong Suh, Pro Football Focus’ No. 3 defensive tackle against the run in 2017 (90.6 PFF grade in rush defense). It’s not for nothing that we’re projecting the Rams defense to be one the most popular DFS units this week. As a double-digit road dog, Johnson might benefit from a few extra targets, but he’s unlikely to have the game script necessary to support heavy rushing volume. Johnson is a GPP-only play.

Melvin-Gordon

Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Melvin Gordon: Los Angeles Chargers (-7) at Buffalo Bills, 43 O/U

MG3 is one of just three backs (along with Gurley and Bell) with 250+ carries and 50+ targets in each of the past two seasons, and now he has the dreamiest of matchups against a Bills defense that last year allowed a league-high 29.1 DraftKings points per game to opposing backfields. As usual, Gordon in Week 1 wasn’t notably efficient as a runner (4.3 yards per carry), and it’s a little worrisome that he didn’t have a red-zone touch — because Gordon lives on touchdowns, and only one of his 24 scores has come from outside the 20-yard line — but he did have 15 carries and was targeted a position-high 13 times. In total, he had 166 scrimmage yards, and he added a two-point conversion. It’s hard to take umbrage with a 27.6-point DraftKings performance.

What’s encouraging — especially since the Chargers lost to the Chiefs — is that Gordon was still able to produce despite the presence of ace change-of-pace back Austin Ekeler ($4,400 DraftKings; $5,600 FanDuel), who turned five rushes and five targets (on just 22 snaps) into 126 yards and a touchdown. While Ekeler’s efficiency is likely to regress, it’s possible that he could be a viable fantasy contributor in 2018, given his college production (7,072 yards and 63 touchdowns from scrimmage in 40 games), physical profile (5-feet-9, 199 pounds, 4.43-second 40 time, 6.85-second three-cone) and NFL role (latter-day Danny Woodhead).

Ekeler has had at least six opportunities in eight career games (with six such games in his last nine appearances). He’s averaged 13.3 DraftKings points per game with the requisite circumstances. Last year, the Bills frequently allowed backup and change-of-pace backs to produce. In 16 games, 23 backs had at least 8.0 DraftKings points against them. Ekeler himself even had 13.8 against them on eight touches while MG3 had 14.0 on 20 touches in a 54-24 route.

With an offense that last week managed a league-worst 2.5 yards per play and this week is giving inaccurate rookie quarterback Josh Allen his first start, the Bills could give a lot of extra series to the Chargers offense. Gordon could approach 25 touches and is the No. 1 back in the SportsGeek Model.

Model Running Backs

Besides Gurley, Gordon and Conner, there are three running backs atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek) and I have constructed.

  • Kareem Hunt: $6,200 DraftKings; $7,800 FanDuel
  • Royce Freeman: $4,300 DraftKings; $6,000 FanDuel
  • Peyton Barber: $4,000 DraftKings; $6,200 FanDuel

Kareem Hunt: Kansas City Chiefs (+4) at Pittsburgh, 52.5 O/U

Considering that the Chiefs offense scored only 38 points and averaged 6.6 yards per play against a stout Chargers defense and now are in the game with the highest over/under, Hunt has generated almost no buzz across the industry this week. We’re projecting him for less than double-digit ownership, which is notable since he averaged a 21.3% rate last year in his league-leading 1,327-yard rushing campaign.

A three-down back with an NFL-high 137 evaded tackles in 2017, Hunt is one of just 10 players in NFL history with 250+ carries and 50+ receptions as a rookie: In that group are Hall-of-Famers Eric Dickerson, LaDainian Tomlinson and Marshall Faulk as well as lesser legends Edgerrin James and Matt Forte.

Why is Hunt being ignored? Because last week, in quarterback Patrick Mahomes’ first game as the full-time starter, Hunt had just 49 yards. On top of that, he had just one target.

People are acting as if Hunt is now horrible. That’s a massive overreaction.

  • Hunt played 71.4% of the offensive snaps.
  • Hunt had 17 total opportunities.
  • Hunt was targeted on second-and-goal at the one-yard line.

Ever since Steelers linebacker Ryan Shazier (back) suffered a debilitating injury in the first quarter of the team’s Week 13 game against the Bengals last season, they have been intensely vulnerable to running backs. In their seven Shazier-less games (including Week 13 and playoffs and Week 1 of 2018), the Steelers have allowed opposing backfields to average 31.6 DraftKings points. For reference: The Bills allowed an NFL-worst 29.1 DraftKings points per game last year.

With his three-down role and matchup, Hunt is the highest-rated DraftKings back in the Bales and CSURAM88 Models.

Royce Freeman: Denver Broncos (-6) vs. Oakland Raiders, 46 O/U

In Week 1, undrafted scatback Phillip Lindasy ($4,400 DraftKings; $4,900 FanDuel) unexpectedly crashed Freeman’s Week 1 party while the anticipated nuisance Devontae Booker ($3,700 DraftKings; $5,200 FanDuel) showed up but managed not to cause a scene.

  • Freeman: 7.1 DraftKings points, 29 snaps (39.2%), 15 carries, 71 yards rushing, zero touchdowns
  • Lindsay: 18.2 DraftKings points, 26 snaps (35.1%), 15 carries, 71 yards rushing, three targets, two receptions, 31 yards receiving, one touchdown
  • Booker: 3.5 DraftKings points, 19 snaps (25.7%), two carries, four yards rushing, two targets, two receptions, 11 yards receiving

Even with that upside-killing backfield split, Freeman is the No. 1 DraftKings back in my Model. Why? Lindsay was great in college, averaging 1,738 yards and 16 touchdowns from scrimmage across his two final seasons, but his physical profile (5-feet-7, 185 pounds, 4.38-second 40 time) suggests that he will ultimately be a change-of-pace and pass-catching back — not one who steals 15 carries per game from a big-and-athletic third-round with pass-catching ability — and that’s what Freeman is.

Basically, I’m betting that eventually Freeman’s talent will lead to a bigger role, and that could happen this week.

Royce-Freeman

Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

The Broncos are significant home favorites, and they are hosting the Raiders, who might struggle at elevation on short rest (they played the late game on Monday night). Additionally, after trading away their top edge defender in Khalil Mack (four straight PFF run defense grades of 89+), the Raiders gave up 31.0 DraftKings points to Rams running backs in Week 1, and now the Raiders will be without run-stopping defensive tackle Justin Ellis (foot, injured reserve) and maybe defensive tackle P.J. Hall (ankle, questionable).

Freeman isn’t Gurley, but he still might be good enough to exploit the Raiders at a projected ownership rate of less than 5%.

Peyton Barber: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) vs. Philadelphia, 44 O/U

The Bucs put up a slate-high 48 points and 8.5 yards per play on the road against the Saints in Week 1, and yet their starting running back had only 69 yards. (Side note: Nice.) As a result, Barber is the cheapest No. 1 back on the DraftKings slate — he’s even $100 cheaper than he was last week — and that’s probably a mistake. Although he had just one goal-line attempt and no targets, he still had 19 carries and played 48 snaps (72.7%). All others Bucs backs combined for just four opportunities. Barber is still the unquestioned leader in the backfield, and as such he’s averaged 18.5 opportunities and 11.5 DraftKings points per game since Week 13 of last year.

Barber won’t have an easy matchup against the Eagles rush defense, which last year was second with a -21.6% DVOA, but he probably still warrants exposure: He has a locked-in high-volume role, and his low salary provides significant roster optionality. Plus, last year he had a 0.9% ownership rate in his five lead-back games. After his disappointing Week 1 performance, he could have a rate approaching that mark.

Barber offers significant GPP upside as the highest-rated DraftKings back in the Koerner Model.

Running Back Rundown

Here’s a quick look at the remaining fantasy-relevant backs on the slate.

Christian McCaffrey & C.J. Anderson: Carolina Panthers (+6) at Atlanta, 44.5

  • McCaffrey: $7,000 DraftKings; $7,400 FanDuel
  • Anderson: $3,900 DraftKings; $5,300 FanDuel
  • McCaffrey has underperformed as a road dog with 12.0 DraftKings points per game (-2.72 Plus/Minus) at 10.2% ownership; Anderson might see more carries in the “Jonathan Stewart role” with tight end Greg Olsen (foot) out.

Leonard Fournette & T.J. Yeldon: Jacksonville Jaguars (+1) vs. New England Patriots, 45 O/U

UPDATE (9/16): The Jaguars are reportedly expecting Fournette (hamstring) not to play in Week 2.

  • Fournette: $6,800 DraftKings; $7,700 FanDuel
  • Yeldon: $5,600 DraftKings; $6,200 FanDuel
  • Fournette (hamstring, questionable) is likely to be a game-time decision and limited if he plays; Yeldon averaged 12.7 PPR points per game last year without Fournette while splitting snaps with the absent Chris Ivory.

Dalvin Cook & Latavius Murray: Minnesota Vikings (+1) at Green Bay Packers, 46.5 O/U

  • Cook: $6,500 DraftKings; $6,500 FanDuel
  • Murray: $4,600 DraftKings; $5,500 FanDuel
  • Cook played 80.3% of the snaps and had 22 touches in Week 1; Murray saw carries on 11 of his 14 snaps.

Jay Ajayi, Darren Sproles & Corey Clement: Philadelphia Eagles (-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 44 O/U

UPDATE (9/16): Sproles (hamstring) has been ruled out for Week 2.

  • Ajayi: $6,300 DraftKings; $6,800 FanDuel
  • Sproles: $4,700 DraftKings; $5,000 FanDuel
  • Clement: $3,500 DraftKings; $5,000 FanDuel
  • Ajayi had 12 of his 15 Week 1 runs after half time; Sproles has averaged 10.7 opportunities and 54.3 yards per game under head coach Doug Pederson; Clement was the third wheel last week with just 13 snaps (18.1%).

Devonta Freeman & Tevin Coleman: Atlanta Falcons (-6) vs. Carolina Panthers, 44.5 O/U

UPDATE (9/16): Freeman (knee) has been ruled out for Week 2 and is expected to miss 2-3 weeks.

  • Freeman: $6,000 DraftKings; $6,800 FanDuel
  • Coleman: $5,300 DraftKings; $5,900 FanDuel
  • Freeman as a home favorite averaged 22.8 DraftKings points per game with OC Kyle Shanahan (2015-16) but has just 14.5 with OC Steve Sarkisian (2017); Coleman, 8.9 with Shanny but 12.0 with Sark.

Adrian Peterson & Chris Thompson: Washington Redskins (-6) vs. Indianapolis Colts, 47 O/U

  • Peterson: $5,500 DraftKings; $6,700 FanDuel
  • Thompson: $5,900 DraftKings; $6,200 FanDuel
  • The Colts defense was 32nd (28.5%) in rush DVOA and 31st (27.9%) in pass DVOA against running backs last year.

Kenyan Drake & Frank Gore: Miami Dolphins (+3) at New York Jets, 44 O/U

  • Drake: $5,800 DraftKings; $6,600 FanDuel
  • Gore: $3,900 DraftKings; $5,300 FanDuel
  • Drake has had 16+ opportunities in six straight games; Gore touched the ball on half of his 18 Week 1 snaps.
LeSean-McCoy

Credit: Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports

LeSean McCoy: Buffalo Bills (+7) vs. Los Angeles Chargers, 43 O/U

  • $5,700 DraftKings; $6,800 FanDuel
  • Rage, rage against the dying of the light.

Lamar Miller & Alfred Blue: Houston Texans (-2.5) at Tennessee Titans, 45 O/U

  • Miller: $5,400 DraftKings; $6,800 FanDuel
  • Blue: $3,900 DraftKings; $5,200 FanDuel
  • Miller is perpetually undervalued and leads the position with 81% DraftKings and 79% FanDuel leverage scores; Blue converted his only Week 1 goal-line carry and is an annoying vulture picking at Miller’s living flesh.

Derrick Henry & Dion Lewis: Tennessee Titans (+2.5) vs. Houston Texans, 45 O/U

  • Henry: $5,200 DraftKings; $6,200 FanDuel
  • Lewis: $5,000 DraftKings; $6,500 FanDuel
  • Henry played just 20 snaps (29.0%) in Week 1 even though the Titans didn’t have negative game flow till the end of the fourth quarter; Lewis turned his 24 opportunities into 22.0 DraftKings points.

Jamaal Williams & Ty Montgomery: Green Bay Packers (-1) vs. Minnesota Vikings, 46.5 O/U

  • Williams: $5,200 DraftKings; $6,100 FanDuel
  • Montgomery: $3,700 DraftKings; $5,700 FanDuel
  • Williams has an average of 21 opportunities per game since becoming the lead back in Week 10 last year; Montgomery ran routes or pass-blocked on 21-of-23 Week 1 snaps (91.3%).

Bilal Powell & Isaiah Crowell: New York Jets (-3) vs. Miami Dolphins, 44 O/U

  • Powell: $5,100 DraftKings; $6,200 FanDuel
  • Crowell: $4,600 DraftKings; $6,400 FanDuel
  • Powell and Crowell both had 24 Week 1 carries; Powell had 14 opportunities to Crowell’s 10, although Crowell had four red-zone carries to Powell’s zero.

Marshawn Lynch, Doug Martin & Jalen Richard: Oakland Raiders (+6) at Denver Broncos, 46 O/U

  • Lynch: $5,100 DraftKings; $6,300 FanDuel
  • Martin: $3,900 DraftKings; $5,100 FanDuel
  • Richard: $3,400 DraftKings; $4,600 FanDuel
  • Lynch was the only Raiders back in Week 1 to touch the ball in the red zone (three carries); Martin saw usage on 6-of-9 snaps but didn’t get an opportunity after half time; Eleven of Richard’s team-high 14 touches came in the hurry-up drive to close the second quarter and two meaningless drives to close the fourth quarter.
Duke-Johnson-Carlos-Hyde

Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

Carlos Hyde & Duke Johnson: Cleveland Browns (+8.5) at New Orleans Saints, 49.5 O/U

  • Hyde: $4,900 DraftKings; $6,300 FanDuel
  • Johnson: $4,200 DraftKings; $5,200 FanDuel
  • Hyde got literally every one of his 23 Week 1 touches on first and second down; Johnson got all his carries and targets with 7+ yards to go for first down.

Matt Breida, Alfred Morris & Kyle Juszczyk: San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) vs. Detroit Lions, 48 O/U

  • Breida: $4,800 DraftKings; $6,100 FanDuel
  • Morris: $3,600 DraftKings; $5,800 FanDuel
  • Juszczyk: $3,200 DraftKings; $4,500 FanDuel
  • Breida led the 49ers with 13 Week 1 opportunities; Morris had only three second-half touches; Juicy has averaged 3.7 targets and 41.8 receiving yards per game in quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo’s six starts with the 49ers.

LeGarrette Blount, Kerryon Johnson & Theo Riddick: Detroit Lions (+6.5) at San Francisco 49ers, 48 O/U

  • Blount: $4,500 DraftKings; $5,300 FanDuel
  • Johnson: $4,200 DraftKings; $6,100 FanDuel
  • Riddick: $4,000 DraftKings; $5,400 FanDuel
  • The 49ers have allowed an NFL-high 6,651 yards and 58 touchdowns rushing since former head coach Jim Harbaugh’s departure in 2015.

Rex Burkhead, James White & Sony Michel: New England Patriots (-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars, 45 O/U

  • Burkhead: $4,400 DraftKings; $6,300 FanDuel
  • White: $4,500 DraftKings; $5,900 FanDuel
  • Michel: $4,100 DraftKings; $5,600 FanDuel
  • Burkhead (concussion, questionable) got all but two of his team-high 18 carries in Week 1 on first and second down; White has 17.0 DraftKings points per game since 2016 when he’s gotten double-digit opportunities in quarterback Tom Brady’s starts (including playoffs); first-round rookie Sony Michel could make his first appearance this week and could have 10+ touches if Burkhead sits.

Marlon Mack, Jordan Wilkins & Nyheim Hines: Indianapolis Colts (+6) at Washington Redskins, 47 O/U

  • Mack: $4,500 DraftKings; $6,000 FanDuel
  • Wilkins: $4,400 DraftKings; $6,000 FanDuel
  • Hines: $4,100 DraftKings; $5,500 FanDuel
  • Mack (hamstring) might make his first appearance of the season this week; Wilkins led the backfield with 46 Week 1 snaps (56.1%) and had three touches inside the 10-yard line; Hines is small (5-feet-8 and 198 pounds), but he had nine targets and an 80% success rate on his five carries.

Positional Breakdowns & News

Be sure to read the other Week 2 positional breakdowns.

• Quarterbacks
• Wide Receivers
• Tight Ends

For more in-depth NFL analysis information, check out The Action Network.

After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.



Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.

Photo credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Pictured above: Todd Gurley

About the Author

Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. The only edge he has in anything is his knowledge of '90s music.