Ben Gretch is the Senior Fantasy Analyst at RotoViz. He is the author of “2017 Will Not Look Like 2016 – Or Anything We’ve Seen Before” and the weekly column Stealing Signals.
Welcome to Week 2 of Deconstructing the Vegas Betting Lines. The Week 1 article has all you need to know about methodology, but here are the Cliff’s Notes:
- We’re breaking the implied team total into four scoring types — passing, rushing, kicking, and defensive/special teams scores (i.e. returns and safeties).
- To do this, we’re leveraging the rates at which teams score their points and their opposing defenses concede them in each phase of the game.
- There are two calculation methods — one averages the offensive and defensive rates, and the other squares, combines, and square roots the differences of the rates from the league mean. The latter method uses the principles of standard deviation to emphasize rates further from the mean.
Obviously implied team totals will not be 100 percent accurate. In cases where you’re not buying the line it’s beneficial to think in terms of relative ranking — does applying this methodology move a team up or down the list in a particular phase?
Last week, we used 2016 rates to deconstruct the lines. As we move along in 2017, we want to include more current year data. It’s a precarious balance in the early going as we’re dealing with small samples. This week will be 75 percent 2016 data and 25 percent Week 1. For Tampa Bay, Miami, and Baltimore’s defense, we don’t have Week 1 splits, so we’ll use 100 percent 2016 data. Any impact from the shutout Baltimore pitched last week would theoretically be captured in the implied total.
There are some teams with interesting Week 1 trends, and we want to incorporate the most relevant data. At the same time, there were three teams who scored 100 percent of their points on field goals. That will have an outsized impact, although it only accounts for 25 percent of one of the two inputs into the final projection, so the effect is relatively muted. I’ve noted a few extreme situations below, but always be wary of the effect of small sample sizes. As we move through the season, the splits will naturally get more robust and reliable.
As always, consult the NFL Content Dashboard for more information on individual matchups that stand out. Here are the Week 2 deconstructions:
Passing Scoring and Notes
2016 League Average Passing Points Rate: 40.5 percent
Note: Lines pulled from Sports Insights on September 15.
The Chargers scored the sixth-highest rate of passing points in 2016 and opened 2017 by scoring all three of their touchdowns through the air on Monday night. In a home matchup with a Miami team that conceded the eighth-highest rate of passing points last year, the line has moved 1.5 points toward the Dolphins since opening, suggesting we could be in for a close game. Despite these trends, Philip Rivers is just the 14th highest-priced quarterback on DraftKings and 19th highest-priced quarterback on FanDuel. Keenan Allen is his highest-priced pass catcher at a measly $5,800 on DraftKings and $7,100 on FanDuel. Allen projects for high ownership, but leverage plays abound here. Antonio Gates played 66 percent of the Week 1 snaps (compared to Hunter Henry‘s 39 percent) and sports the seventh-highest ceiling projection on DraftKings at a $3,000 salary.
The high-priced Patriots get a bad rap from the early-season data, as they scored zero passing points in Week 1, which is weighing down their passing points rate (denoted “Tm %”). In 2016, they posted the 11th-highest rate of passing points despite Tom Brady‘s four-game suspension. Brady completed just 44 percent of his passes in the opener, but his top three targets — Brandin Cooks, Rob Gronkowski, and Chris Hogan — were all among the 18 players with 100 or more Air Yards in Week 1. With the only implied team total over 30 points, it’s wheels up for this passing game.
The Patriots’ opponents grade out highly, as well. The Saints scored the fifth-highest percentage of points through the air in 2016, while New England conceded the third-highest rate. The other game with a huge over/under (Green Bay at Atlanta) doesn’t disappoint in the passing splits either. All four offensive and defensive units in this game scored or conceded passing points at above-average rates in 2016. The hype appears legit in the two potential dome shootouts.
Rushing Scoring and Notes
2016 League Average Rushing Points Rate: 22.7 percent
Carolina didn’t score any rushing points in Week 1 but carried the eighth-highest rate of rushing points last year. As touchdown favorites at home against 2016’s top defense to target by this metric, the Panthers are a good bet to get a chunk of their 25 implied points on the ground. Cam Newton and Jonathan Stewart are the likeliest beneficiaries, but don’t sleep on Christian McCaffrey, who played 70 percent of the team’s snaps in plus game script in Week 1, usage that suggests he’s more than a passing back.
The Seahawks have a similar setup. They are even bigger home favorites, and their opponent (the 49ers) conceded the third highest rushing points rate in 2016. Unfortunately, determining the best bet to find the end zone in this backfield is more difficult. Thomas Rawls returns, joining Chris Carson, C.J. Prosise, and Eddie Lacy, who played just seven snaps in Week 1. Rawls and Carson have the highest ceiling projections of the bunch and make for the best dart throws.
The Patriots have an inflated rushing points rate thanks to Mike Gillislee‘s three Week 1 TDs. That said, they were above league average in 2016, and the Saints defense actually conceded a higher rushing points rate than passing points rate last year, relative to league averages for both. Game stacks are squarely in play in both the New England-New Orleans and Green Bay-Atlanta matchups. Due to his lack of receiving role, Gillislee grades much higher at FanDuel in the Models.
Kicking and Defense/Special Teams Scoring and Notes
2016 League Average Kicking Points Rate: 31.5 percent
Three of the five kicker recommendations last week scored 12 or more FanDuel points, and one who fell short wasn’t in the player pool (Ka’imi Fairbairn). The other four averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.15. This method of highlighting teams that have high totals, score a high percentage of their points through the kicking game, and are playing teams who concede a high percentage of their points through the kicking game continues to be a strong way to choose kickers, as it was throughout last season.
Before we get to the top plays for this week, note that the Seahawks, Giants, and 49ers all scored 100 percent of their Week 1 points in the kicking game. Due to this, their offenses, as well as the Packers, Cowboys, and Panthers defenses, have slightly skewed rates.
Blair Walsh comes in as the top name with Matt Bryant a close second. The described inflation effect applies to both, although they are strong plays on their own merits. Stephen Gostkowski, Graham Gano, and Giorgio Tavecchio round out the top five.
2016 League Average D/ST Points Rate: 5.2 percent
The D/ST table is included mostly to be transparent with all the data. In my review of 2015 data, the subdivided defense/special teams scoring projections were the only scoring type to perform worse than the betting lines, and it was notably worse. The implication is that conceding or scoring D/ST touchdowns and safeties isn’t predictive of future performance, which is useful to know, since it’s possible that some teams could have inflated over/unders and/or implied point totals if they have scored and/or conceded a high rate of points via defense/special teams.
In other words, later in the year we should fade a small degree of the implied totals for teams who grade highly here. Of course, the unleavened fade is already baked into the passing, rushing, and kicking projections in this column because those percentages are relatively lower. For example, the Rams scored 30.4 percent of their 46 Week 1 points through two interception returns and a safety. The impact is lower rushing, passing, and kicking percentages applied to their Week 2 implied total.
Good luck this week and be sure to research for yourself with the entire suite of Tools.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players mentioned. Stay ahead of your competition with the NFL news feed:
