No More Intros
It is Week 2, and the need for introductions is a week past us.
Week 1 was a little hectic due to some of the scratches and T.J Yeldon‘s last-minute emergence as a cash-game option. One thing I took away from Week 1 was how accurate the FantasyLabs ownership projections are. I am even more excited about them now. Let’s look at how to leverage these projections to our advantage.
Quarterback: Eli Manning
Projected Ownership: 17-20 percent (FD)
Eli’s 17-20 percent FantasyLabs ownership projection leads all quarterbacks this week, and there are three other players at his position — Matthew Stafford, Cam Newton, and Drew Brees — with projections between nine and 12 percent. With every other quarterback currently projected to be in less than eight percent of lineups, there are plenty of pivot options if you were to fade Eli.
Blake Bortles currently has the fourth-highest projection of all quarterbacks and is the exact same price as Eli ($8,100). Not only does Blake project well, but he also offers easy stacks with the likes of Allen Robinson (who currently has eight Pro Trends and a 94 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel) and Allen Hurns (who is currently projected to be in only zero to one percent of lineups). Not only does Blake make sense as a pivot from Eli, but stacking him with one or more of his wide receivers will additionally serve as leverage off of Yeldon, who currently has the fifth-highest ownership projection at the running back position.
If you do decide to roll with Eli, the decision will beg you to pair him with Odell Beckham, Jr., who is currently projected to be somewhere between 26-30 percent owned. The Giants other wide receivers — Sterling Shepard and Victor Cruz — both played at least 50 snaps last week, but as expected OBJ led the team with 32 percent of the receiving targets. Shepard and Cruz have FantasyLabs ownership projections of five to eight and zero to one percent on FD. They are excellent options as leverage against the Eli-Beckham stacks.
Running Back: T.J. Yeldon
Projected Ownership: 17-20 percent (DK)
I still like the idea of targeting Bortles and the Jacksonville wide receivers instead of Yeldon on FanDuel, but fading a $4,700 pass-catching back on DraftKings may not be the greatest option. The salary relief and his +4.0 Projected Plus/Minus are strong reasons to have at least some exposure to Yeldon.
Forgive me for going back to last week’s well, but playing opposite of Yeldon this week is Danny Woodhead, who ran the ball 16 times and caught five of seven passes against the Chiefs in a Week 1 game in which the Chargers led for a majority of the time. Woodhead’s game-script independence may not last, but his average of six receptions per game over the last year should. Also, it still seems that people do not like to roster two running backs on opposing teams. In last week’s Millionaire Maker contest — which featured 1,436,510 entries — the combination of Woodhead and Spencer Ware was in fewer than 0.5 percent of lineups.
Per the FantasyLabs news feed, Chris Ivory is out once again this week, so we can expect Yeldon to have a substantial workload. Pairing him with Woodhead, who is currently projected to be in nine to 12 percent of lineups, could be an easy way to get some Yeldon exposure in a distinctive way. Woodhead is projected to be in more lineups this week than he was last week, but I still expect the Woody-Yeldon combination to be minimally owned.
If Woodhead isn’t a player you are interested in this week, you could also stack Yeldon with Bortles. The two have a 0.25 positive correlation, as seen on Yeldon’s FantasyLabs player card:
Although it is more popular now than it was at the beginning of last year, stacking a quarterback with his running back remains an underutilized form of gaining differentiation.
Wide Receiver: Odell Beckham Jr. & Antonio Brown
Projected Ownership: 21-25 percent (DK)
If you are going to pay up for one of these guys, you will have quite the decision on your hands deciding which one to go with, but let’s assume that you wanted to fade them entirely.
Fading them in lieu of lower-priced options is going to take your roster construction in an entirely different direction. However, If you find yourself with the wide receiver slot open and a ton of salary left, then it could be worth taking a look at Julio Jones, who currently is projected in our Player Models to be in nine to 12 percent of lineups. He isn’t going to be significantly low-owned, but he is quite the ownership discount on OBJ and AB.
There is a lot of hype surrounding Beckham’s matchup versus the Saints, but let’s not ignore the fact that Julio draws a matchup versus a Raiders defense that just last week allowed two 100-yard receivers and four total passing touchdowns.
If you are fine with paying down a bit, DeAndre Hopkins is $8,700 and currently projected to appear in five to eight percent of lineups. However, Dez Bryant is $300 cheaper than Nuk and currently has a FantasyLabs ownership projection of only two to four percent. Dez is a great example of how a highly-talented player coming off of a poor performance can be severely under-owned. Also, his quarterback (Dak Prescott) is currently expected to be in only two to four percent of lineups after a week in which he let a lot of cash-game players down.
Tight End: Delanie Walker
Projected Ownership: 13-16 percent (DK)
I love Delanie this week, but there are a few options at the tight end position who are offering value at lower FantasyLabs projected ownership. Gary Barnidge and Coby Fleener are the third- and fifth-rated tight ends in the Bales Model this week. Barnidge and Fleener — at five to eight and two to four percent — both have lower FantasyLabs ownership projections than Walker does. Fleener in particular might be the stand-out option at $3,900, with his median projection of 11 points and +3.5 Projected Plus/Minus.
Fleener is coming off of a disappointing week in which he caught only one pass for six yards while failing to reach the end zone. His market share of Week 1 targets is alarming, but I think it is wise not to overreact to Week 1 statistics, especially for a player on a new team. Fleener did see the field. In fact he was on the field for 56 of the Saints’ 69 offensive snaps, second to Brandin Cooks. Not only is Fleener a much-cheaper option than Walker, but he will also serve as leverage off of Willie Snead, whose outstanding Week 1 performance has contributed to his having a high FantasyLabs ownership projection of 17-20 percent.
Marcus Mariota — currently the No. 2 quarterback in the Bales Model — is projected to be in two to four percent of lineups. At only $6,000 on DraftKings, Mariota (and maybe another Titan) could be stacked with Delanie as a means of differentiation. Tajae Sharpe might be the best option to top off the double stack, due to his seeing the most passes from Mariota last week. However, Rishard Matthews has a FantasyLabs ownership projection of zero to one percent. A Mariota-Walker-Matthews stack should easily enable you to feast on some chalk with the remainder of your lineup.
Best of luck this weekend
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
