Week 17 is a difficult one to predict, as different teams are motivated (or not) for different reasons. We must examine not only the matchups that a receiver will face, but we also need to find out how much they will play. Rostering receivers in line for a full complement of snaps is paramount this week. Let’s break down the notable WR/CB matchups (and motivations) using our NFL Matchups tool as a guide.
The Studs
Antonio Brown vs. Joe Haden and Browns Secondary
Haden has been shadowing opposing receivers since returning from his injury. However, he has not been particularly successful: He currently grades as the 96th-ranked cornerback in coverage this season, per Pro Football Focus. He should not be a concern for Brown.
However, Brown might not play the entire game, and maybe not at all. The Steelers cannot change their playoff seeding with a win (or loss) and therefore have no reason to subject Brown to injury. Even if he is active, he is a very risky play.
Odell Beckham Jr. vs. Josh Norman and Redskins Secondary
Beckham should see shadow coverage from Norman on nearly 80 percent of his routes this weekend. Norman has not played at the level he did in 2015, but he has still graded as PFF’s 16th-best cornerback in coverage. Overall, the Redskins secondary has been quietly falling apart for weeks now. They have allowed 18 or more DraftKings points to the last six quarterbacks they’ve faced. They have also allowed five 300-yard passers over their last six games.
Norman struggled against OBJ earlier this season; he shadowed him on 38 of his routes in Week 3. Beckham caught 7-of-11 targets for 121 yards in that contest. Beckham has been on an absolute tear over the past five weeks with 100 yards receiving or a touchdown in every game during that span. He has a whopping 64 targets over the past five games. Norman is a ‘downgrade’ for a wide receiver, but there is plenty of reason to expect Beckham to have success against him this week.
Unfortunately, the Giants have very little to play for this weekend since they are guaranteed the fifth seed in the playoffs. Like Brown, Beckham may not play the entire game or at all. Beckham needs only four more catches for his first 100-reception season, and it’s certainly possible that he could exit this game after his fourth catch.
Julio Jones vs. Saints Secondary
The Saints secondary does not have a single cornerback that grades higher than 66th in coverage, per PFF. However, because of their scheme, they have been much stronger against WR1s than they have been against quarterbacks. Per Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), they rank 16th against WR1s on the season. That said, over the last six weeks they have allowed a touchdown of over 20 yards to Ted Ginn, Tavon Austin, Golden Tate, John Brown, and Mike Evans. Four of Julio’s five touchdowns this season have gone for 20 yards or longer.
However, the Falcons have plenty of reason to play it safe with Julio. In his first game back from injury, he played only 62 percent of the snaps. The Falcons do need to win this game in order to hold their second seed in the NFC, but Julio is unlikely to play a full complement of snaps unless they are trailing. If they do manage to get behind, expect some shots to Julio. He’s currently the highest-rated receiver in the Levitan FD Model.
Jordy Nelson vs. Lions Secondary
Nelson has been the most consistent elite receiver since Week 8: He has double-digit DraftKings points in each of those games and a league-high nine touchdown catches in that span. He has had two games since Week 8 with less than 90 receiving yards but managed to score a touchdown in both of those contests.
This week he draws an interesting matchup against the Lions, who have not allowed a 100-yard receiver since Week 7. However, without Darius Slay in Week 16, they did allow Dez Bryant to catch four passes for 70 yards and two touchdowns. Slay is a big question mark this week. That said, even with Slay on the field in Week 3, Jordy managed to catch six passes for 101 yards and two touchdowns.
The Packers are playing for the division title and we should expect to see plenty of Jordy this week. He is going to be a very chalky option in Week 17: He’s currently projected for position-high ownership ranges of 26-30 and 21-25 percent on DK and FD.
Mike Evans vs. Panthers Secondary
Evans finally showed some life last week, catching seven passes for 97 yards and a touchdown. However, for the third straight week, he saw only eight targets. Evans should benefit from Cameron Brate’s injury with a few extra targets this week, but his early-season volume looks to be a thing of the past.
This week, Evans will face off against a Carolina passing defense that has greatly improved in the second half of the season: They now rank 12th against the pass, per DVOA. Most of their success comes from generating pressure against the quarterback, as they lead the NFL with 44 sacks this season. That being said, Carolina is still allowing a low -1.20 Plus/Minus to opposing wide receivers on DK this season. Evans should mostly avoid their top cornerback, James Bradberry, as he plays the left cornerback position, where Evans runs less than half of his routes.
Evans carries situational risk, as the Buccaneers are essentially eliminated from playoff contention. We should expect him to play in this game, but they’ll be cautious with him.
Notable Upgrades
Cameron Meredith vs. Captain Munnerlyn
Meredith has been spending most of his time in the slot over the past few weeks while Eddie Royal has been out of the lineup. Royal has been moved to the Injured Reserve, and we should continue to see Meredith in the slot for Week 17. Jordy Nelson avoided Xavier Rhodes by playing nearly 40 percent of his snaps in the slot in Week 16. While in the slot, Jordy caught 3-of-4 targets for 81 yards and a touchdown. While Rhodes has struggled recently — he now grades as PFF’s 37th cornerback in coverage — he and Terence Newman are still the corners to avoid on Minnesota. Munnerlyn grades as PFF’s 45th-best cornerback in coverage and should spend most of his day covering Meredith. Meredith rates as a top-10 receiver this week in the Levitan DK Model.
DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon vs. Possible Giants Backups
The Giants are guaranteed the fifth seed in the playoffs this year; they cannot pass the Cowboys and the Redskins cannot pass them. The Redskins can, however, get the sixth seed with a win. They may be the most motivated team in the NFL on Sunday. One area where the Giants have struggled with multiple injuries this season is at the cornerback position. It is increasingly likely that we could see the Giants sit Landon Collins, Janoris Jenkins, and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie in a pointless game. If these guys sit, fire up Kirk Cousins‘ pass-catchers, as they’ll face Trevin Wade and Eli Apple, who grade as the 62nd- and 72nd-overall cornerbacks in coverage, per PFF.
If the normal Giants starters are active, consider this a downgrade for the Redskins pass-catchers. We want to target the backups.
Notable Downgrades
T.Y. Hilton vs. Jalen Ramsey
Ramsey is one of the few shadow cornerbacks this season who will follow a receiver into the slot. I fully expect him to follow Hilton all over the formation this weekend. Ramsey grades as the best cornerback in coverage over the past four weeks, according to PFF. He has allowed a 34 percent completion percentage and zero touchdowns with two interceptions over that span. Ramsey is the real deal and someone to avoid.
Raiders Receivers vs. Denver Secondary
Since the Broncos are eliminated from the playoffs, it’s important to monitor the statuses of their starting cornerbacks. If Aqib Talib and Chris Harris Jr. are active, Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree receive serious downgrades this weekend. Not only are Harris Jr. and Talib PFF’s highest-graded cornerbacks this year, but Matt McGloin is starting at quarterback for Oakland. As a starter, McGloin has never eclipsed 300 yards passing; he’s a major downgrade for the entire offense.
