Week 16 presents us with some studs in great spots. Unfortunately most elite receivers have either been underperforming or hurt recently. It will be key to get the studs right this week. Let’s break down the notable WR/CB matchups using our NFL Matchups tool as a guide.
The Studs
Antonio Brown vs. Jimmy Smith-less Ravens
The Ravens rank sixth against the pass in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). However, Smith (ankle), the team’s top cornerback, missed last week’s game and is yet to return to practice. The Ravens have allowed a 43 percent passing success rate with Smith and a 52 percent rate without him, per Warren Sharp of Sharp Football Analysis.
Because the Ravens have a run-stopping funnel defense, teams are often forced to throw against them. In that situation, they often throw away from Smith. Lined up against other Ravens CBs, this season Michael Crabtree caught seven passes for 88 yards and three touchdowns. Corey Coleman caught five passes for 104 yards and two touchdowns. Odell Beckham Jr. caught six passes for 211 yards and two touchdowns after Smith left with an injury. If Smith misses Week 16, that will give a huge boost to Antonio, who is playing at home. Brown is currently the highest-rated DraftKings and FanDuel WR in the Levitan Player Model. Monitor Smith’s status via the FantasyLabs News feed.
Odell Beckham Jr. vs. Leodis McKelvin and Nolan Carroll
Even though the Eagles are second in pass DVOA, they are the fifth-worst team in the NFL against deep passing, allowing 53.4 percent more production than league average. Antonio and Julio Jones have combined for 22 catches and 275 yards against the Philadelphia secondary this season. The Eagles have also allowed four receivers — Dez Bryant, Davante Adams, DeSean Jackson, and Doug Baldwin — to clear 100 yards on no more than receptions.
The Eagles’ CB play is atrocious. McKelvin ranks 83rd and Carroll ranks 104th in coverage out of 123 PFF qualifiers. As long as Eli Manning’s protection holds up against No. 7 pass rush DVOA, Beckham should feast. He has the position’s third-highest FD ceiling projection this week.
Julio Jones vs. Panthers Secondary
To start the season, the Panthers were horrible at CB. However, Daryl Worley and James Bradberry have played strong football recently on the outside, and now both have PFF coverage grades over 72. The secondary’s weakness is in the slot, where Leonard Johnson has a horrible PFF coverage grade of 43.
Fortunately for Julio, offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan is inventive enough to scheme him open by playing him in the slot and at LWR so that he avoids Bradberry, PFF’s No. 26 cover CB. Julio went 12-300-1 against this defense in his last outing against the now-departed Bene Benwikere.
Note that Julio (toe) missed Weeks 14-15 and is not certain to play this week.
Mike Evans vs. Saints Secondary
The Buccaneers face a Saints defense that has quietly turned into a passing funnel in the second half of the NFL season, ranking 28th against the pass and 19th against the run. However, the Saints have only allowed two receivers to clear 100 yards since Week 4, and they rank 11th in pass DVOA against WR1s. On top of that, Evans has no more than eight targets in any of his last three games. In what superficially looks like a decent spot, Evans doesn’t rate inside the top 12 at the position in the Levitan Model.
Notable Upgrades
T.Y. Hilton vs. T.J. Carrie
Hilton is the type of receiver who has given the Raiders problems this season. Small and athletic WRs such as Willie Snead, Brandin Cooks, Travis Benjamin, Ted Ginn, Steve Smith, and Marqise Lee have all cleared 100 yards against the Raiders. And Hilton is one of the best of this breed of WRs.
Additionally, he should match up against the Raiders’ weakest cornerback. T.J. Carrie spends the majority of his snaps defending the slot, where Hilton runs 56 percent of his routes. Carrie is the No. 58 PFF cover CB.
Other Notable Upgrades
Julian Edelman, Chris Hogan, and Malcolm Mitchell have the potential to accumulate a lot of production against a Jets defense that’s 32nd in pass DVOA.
Kenny Britt is intriguing as a contrarian play against a 49ers defense that’s 29th in pass DVOA.
Notable Downgrades
Rishard Matthews vs. Jalen Ramsey
Ramsey may not shadow Matthews, but we’re expecting the two to match up frequently, given that Ramsey plays the LCB position, where Matthews runs nearly 50 percent of his routes. Ramsey is allowing only 0.25 fantasy points per route.
With Ramsey playing shutdown coverage this season, the Jaguars have not allowed a single WR1 to go over 100 yards receiving. The only three receivers to reach that mark have been Travis Benjamin, Cam Meredith, and Adam Thielen. Overall, the Jaguars are holding WRs to a -2.2 DK Opponent Plus/Minus over the last 12 months.
