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Quarterbacks
Case Keenum: $6,700 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel
Now that they are out of playoff contention, the Packers have placed Aaron Rodgers on injured reserve and the team is in uncharted territory as nine-point home dogs. Keenum and the 11-3 Vikings — also 10-4 ATS — are implied to score 24.75 points against a Green Bay defense that has surrendered the third-highest quarterback rating over the last three games (115.0) and the fifth-most passing touchdowns (1.86 per game) this year. Minnesota is also the third-fastest paced offense in neutral situations this season, we currently project them for 65 offensive plays. That said, comparably favored quarterbacks on the road average a putrid -2.65 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and 30.8 percent Consistency rating in the second division game of the year.
Jacoby Brissett: $4,600 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel
Brissett — the No. 1 rated Saturday slate DraftKings quarterback in two of the Three Donkeys Models — has played below his salary-based expectations in four straight games, but has DraftKings gone overboard in their salary adjustment? The Indianapolis offensive line is in shambles, ranking dead last in adjusted sack rate, so Brissett could be in trouble against a Baltimore front seven we project for the most sacks (3.9) of any defense on the entire Week 16 slate. Of 29 qualifying players, Brissett has the ninth-worst quarterback rating while under pressure (61.8) according to Pro Football Focus, but his rushing equity and price could make him a reasonable pivot off of Keenum in guaranteed prize pools. The main issue is Brissett may actually correlate better with the Baltimore defense than any of his pass-catchers.
Running Backs
Alex Collins: $5,600 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel
On a slate that features two large favorites, taking into account game script and usage at the running back position will be crucial. He carried the ball just 12 times in Week 15, but after seeing more than two targets only once all season, Collins reeled in five catches on eight targets and now has 17 or more touches in five straight games. The Indianapolis defense has been getting gashed on the ground, allowing 24.6 and 18.8 DraftKings points to LeSean McCoy and C.J. Anderson respectively over the last two weeks, but they also rank 32nd in DVOA at defending running backs in the passing game. Historically, running backs as home favorites with comparable spreads and implied totals have provided 12.02 DraftKings PPG and a +3.26 Plus/Minus with a 47.1 Consistency rating.
Latavius Murray: $5,400 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel
Per my Rushing Expectation Methodology in regards to his efficiency on the ground, Murray finished in the rock-bottom first percentile in 2015 and 40th percentile in 2016. That said, even bad players can fall into the end zone with high-value touches and favorable game script. That’s exactly what Murray has done, hitting his salary-based expectation in four of his last five games.
Over that same sample, Murray has averaged 17.4 touches per game, 80.2 yards from scrimmage, and 0.8 touchdowns. Predictably, his fewest touches (11) came in Minnesota’s lone loss over that span, but the positive game script should favor his skill set against a Packers defense allowing the third-most DraftKings PPG to running backs this season.
Wide Receivers
Adam Thielen: $8,100 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel
With Damarious Randall likely shadowing Stefon Diggs, fade Thielen at your own risk despite potential game script concerns for the passing game. He is expected to run the majority of his routes against PFF’s 89th ranked cornerback Davon House and owns the top raw points projection for any non-quarterback on the slate. Thielen has posted a phenomenal 16.95 PPG with a +3.09 Plus/Minus on DraftKings this year, but he has absolutely smashed that Packers in his young career, registering 24.77 PPG with a ludicrous +15.14 Plus/Minus in a small three-game sample since emerging for the Vikings in 2016.
Mike Wallace: $5,400 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel
Jeremy Maclin is officially doubtful for Saturday, and in theory, the Ravens passing game is in a great spot against the Colts’ 30th-ranked pass DVOA. Quietly, Wallace has averaged 8.5 targets over his past four games and predictably leads the Ravens with 46 percent market share of air yards over that span (tied for fifth-highest in the league). He is currently the fifth-highest graded WR play on DraftKings in our Adam Levitan Model.
Tight Ends
Jack Doyle: $4,700 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel
He has just one look inside the 10-yard line over his past four games, but Doyle still carries a solid target floor with a 21 percent market share overall, and Brissett (29.9 percent) trails only Alex Smith (32.6) in throws directed towards tight ends over the past year. The Ravens rank 31st in DVOA against the tight end position, but historically, the position does not fare well in games with comparably low implied totals. They have averaged 3.78 DraftKings PPG and -2.03 Plus/Minus with a minuscule 15.2 percent Consistency rating since 2014.
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