The NFL DFS prime time slates are small but have massive guaranteed prize pools. This week, here are the games offered in the ‘Holiday’ slate:
That snippet is from our free NFL Vegas dashboard and is current as of Saturday morning. Keep tabs on the dashboard for updates on the lines.
Quarterback
Projected Ceiling (DK): 30.9, Ben Roethlisberger
The QB position for the holiday slate isn’t elite, even with Joe Flacco in it. (Editor’s Note: How do you like that eggnog?!) As a point of reference: None of these six QBs is implied for more than one percent ownership in the main slate of games. That said, there are some upside plays, such as Big Ben, who will be back home in Pittsburgh after playing four of his last five games on the road. He’s facing a tough Ravens defense that ranks third, sixth, and first in overall, pass, and rush Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), but he’s still been excellent historically against all kinds of defenses as long as he’s been at home:
His matchup is bad, but Big Ben has the kind of upside no other QB in the slate possesses, and he currently has a DK ceiling projection of 30.9 points — 6.1 points higher than that of any other player.
Adjusted Yards per Pass Attempt: 7.22, Tom Savage
Savage is starting over Brock Osweiler, although that probably says more about the latter than it does the former. Savage probably isn’t a good QB, although he did complete 23 of his 36 attempts for 260 yards and no interceptions last week. Playoff implications will be important to monitor: The Texans — who currently have a 58 percent chance of making the playoffs, per fivethirtyeight.com — may be the only team other than the Steelers and Ravens who still really care about winning. Savage has low ratings in our Pro Models and a slate-low 22.2-point FD projected ceiling, but he should have low ownership and might be one of the few QBs in this small slate not to mail it in.
Running Back
Median Projection (FD): 21.3, Le’Veon Bell
Bell is much like his QB in this slate: His 21.3-point median projection is a whopping 8.1 FD points higher than that of any other RB. He’s clearly the most talented guy in the slate, although he’ll really have to earn it against the league’s No. 1 rush defense. The Ravens held Bell to only 10.0 FD points in their first meeting this year, but there’s reason to be more optimistic this time around. Bell got nine targets last game and actually owns 20.33 percent of the Steelers’ targets over the past month (per the Market Share Report):
He wasn’t able to do much with his nine targets last game, catching six of them for 38 yards. However, with his QB back on the right side of his home/road splits, Bell certainly has much more upside in the passing game.
Opponent Plus/Minus (FD): +1.4, Spencer Ware
Ware is currently the No. 1 RB in the Bales Model for both DK and FD partially because of his stellar matchup versus a Denver funnel defense through which production flows toward the running game. In this week’s WR Breakdown, I created a funnel rating system that measures how good a defense is versus the run and the pass and how much production might be funneled to the former:
Although this was designed for WRs, you can see at the bottom how extreme the Broncos are: Their pass defense with an elite secondary is perhaps historically great, while their run defense sucks. As a result, teams attack them hard on the ground, and they’ve been successful doing so:
Wide Receiver
Average TDs per Game, Last Year: 0.8, Antonio Brown
I don’t want to make this piece too chalky, but it’s difficult to fade AB in this slate. He’s easily the No. 1 WR in the Bales Model for both DK and FD, and he’ll face a Baltimore secondary without No. 1 cornerback Jimmy Smith (ankle). Per our Matchups tool, he’ll line up for much of the game against Shareece Wright, Pro Football Focus’ 57th-ranked CB with a mediocre 74.7 coverage grade. Brown has notable home/road splits because of his QB’s splits, and he also gets the benefit of the Ravens’ pass-friendly funnel defense. He managed to put up 21.5 DK points on the road in their last meeting, and he’s projected for a massive 33.3-point ceiling this week. This slate has several talented WRs, but fading AB in tournaments will make cashing very hard if he goes off.
Target Share, Last Month: 27.9 percent, DeAndre Hopkins
Savage targeted Hopkins on a silly 42 percent of his passes once he replaced Brock last week, and Nuk finished Week 15 with a season-high 17 targets. He now owns 27.86 percent of the Texans’ targets over the past month and will look to keep rolling with Savage getting the start. He doesn’t have a great matchup — his -2.2 DK Opponent Plus/Minus is low for the slate — but, again, the Texans have something to play for, and Nuk could be in line for the most targets of the week again. He’s currently the No. 2 WR in the Bales Model for DK, where his low $5,200 salary comes with a +3.78 Projected Plus/Minus and seven Pro Trends.
Tight End
Yards per Reception, Last 12 Months: 12.6, Travis Kelce
Since Rob Gronkowski‘s injury, Kelce has arguably been the best TE in the league. He’s had ridiculous volume lately: Not only is his 30.51 percent four-week target share the best mark among TEs, but it’s actually the fourth-best mark in the entire NFL.
He has a tough matchup — the Broncos rank sixth in pass DVOA versus TEs — but Kelce put up an 8-101-0 line on 15 targets against them just four weeks ago. Kelce is the most talented TE in this slate, and he could be in line for double-digit targets yet again.
Opponent Plus/Minus (DK): +4.7, C.J. Fiedorowicz and Ryan Griffin
The Houston TEs have easily the best matchup in the slate going against a Bengals defense that ranks 22nd versus TEs on the year. Unfortunately, trying to pick between them could be a challenge yet again. C.J. has been excellent this season: He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last nine games and averaged a +4.89 DK Plus/Minus during that time. However, Griffin went off last week in C.J.’s absence, grabbing all eight of his targets for 85 yards and 16.5 DK points. C.J. is set to return to action in Week 16, but Savage and Griffin clearly showed some chemistry. C.J. has the position’s second-highest ceiling projection (18.6 points), but Griffin isn’t far behind at 15.6.
Good luck!
