QB: Dak Prescott
Projected Ownership: 2-4 percent DraftKings and FanDuel
If the public is going to be scared of the Seahawks defense, let them be frightened and let me roster Dak Prescott as a home favorite with Ezekiel Elliott back in the lineup. Seattle’s D has name value, but the “Legion of Boom” has been down three starters for the better part of the year, and Earl Thomas, KJ Wright and Bobby Wagner are featured on this week’s injury report. That’s more than 50 percent of the boom on the bench. In the last two games, the team has yielded a combined 72 points and four passing touchdowns to Jared Goff and Blake Bortles. Prescott has been hot and cold this year, but his success correlates clearly with the presence of Elliott and home-field advantage. In the first nine weeks of the season prior to Elliott’s suspension, Prescott was fourth in overall quarterback scoring, with only Deshaun Watson averaging more points per drop back. If you restrict that split to home games, Prescott averaged 24.5 DraftKings points per game. You’re getting him at a relative discount too. Prescott’s salary has never been this low in 2017 with Elliott in the backfield.
RB: Joe Mixon
Projected Ownership: 2-4 percent DraftKings and 0-1 FanDuel
Joe Mixon returned to Bengals practice on Wednesday as a full participant and should be able to pick up where he left off in Week 13 on Sunday. In the two weeks before he exited Week 13 with an injury, Mixon saw bell cow level work, earning a combined 43 carries and 5 receptions. Mixon will return to a plumb matchup with the Lions, who currently rank 26th in rush Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) and have allowed 134 total yards per game to running backs and 30.40 DraftKings points per-game in the last month. As long as he gets the volume, Mixon makes a viable tournament play.
WR: Chris Godwin
Projected Ownership: 0-1 percent DraftKings and 2-4 FanDuel
DeSean Jackson sat out back-to-back days of practice with an ankle injury and has been ruled out on Sunday against Carolina. Next man up would be rookie Chris Godwin, who has only played starter’s snaps in one game this year- against the Jets in Week 10 during Mike Evans’ suspension. In that game, he saw 97 percent of team snaps, and earned 10 targets from Ryan Fitzpatrick. While we may not be excited to roster a rookie in a new role, Godwin has actually seen over 55 percent of snaps in the last two weeks and earned eight targets in those games. He’s not a total newbie to playing with Jameis Winston, and it’s clear the Buccaneers were moving to get the rookie more regular season snaps for development purposes. No team in the NFL has yielded more total DraftKings points than the Panthers in the last month and 47.25 of those points are going to wide receivers on a weekly basis. Godwin is listed at minimum salary on both platforms and makes an intriguing punt play in large field GPPs.
WR: Mohamed Sanu
Projected Ownership: 0-1 percent DraftKings and 2-4 FanDuel
To the dismay of Julio Jones owners this year, Mohamed Sanu is the Falcons’ leader in receiving touchdowns. Jones does have more targets inside the 10-yard-line this year, but Sanu has made the most of his five looks in that same situation, turning them all into six points. One of those red-zone touchdowns came in Week 14 against the Saints and it makes good sense that Sanu could be a viable option again this week. His matchup with PJ Williams in the slot will be the best among all the Atlanta wide receivers. Williams yields the Saints highs in catch rate allowed, yards per-route covered and fantasy points per-route covered. Sanu’s a high floor option with game-stack appeal.
TE: Eric Ebron
Projected Ownership: 5-8 percent DraftKings and 2-4 FanDuel
Note: On Friday, Ebron’s projected ownership was elevated from 2-4 percent to 5-8 percent. Be sure to track changes to our projections throughout the weekend.
Not many people would guess that Eric Ebron was the Lions’ leading pass catcher in Week 14, or that he has as many targets as Marvin Jones in the last month, but it’s true. He’s inspired many-a-tilt over the years, but it seems that Ebron may be more fantasy viable than ever. He’s earned more than four receptions in every game since Week 11 and has turned in back-to-back double digit DraftKings points in two weeks. This week, he’ll see the Bengals, who have yielded back-to-back weeks with a tight end touchdown and over 30 raw points to opponents in both of those games. Ebron is hard to trust at times, but now seems as good an occasion as any.
