Week 15 presents very few downgrades. Let’s break down this week’s notable WR/CB matchups using our NFL Matchups tool as a guide.
The Studs
Antonio Brown vs. Bengals Secondary
Since Brown runs the majority of his routes on the outside, he should spend most of his day against Dre Kirkpatrick and Adam Jones. Both Kirkpatrick and Jones have been very average this season, ranking outside of PFF’s top-50 coverage cornerbacks. Neither Kirkpatrick nor Jones are a concern for Brown.
The issue for Brown is that has seen only 34 targets over his last four games, as the Steelers have won four straight. Fortunately for Brown, he saw 11 targets in the closest game of their win streak (last week). Vegas projects for another close game in this spot: The Steelers are currently three-point favorites. In what should be a fiery divisional matchup, we should expect Brown to see plenty of action in a beatable matchup. That said, his recent volume concerns make him more of a GPP play, and he ranks outside of the top-10 receivers in the Levitan FanDuel Model.
Mike Evans vs. Brandon Carr
Evans has now seen under 10 targets in two straight games. Interestingly, the Buccaneers are on a five-game win streak. They are playing strong defense, limiting the Chargers, Saints, and Seahawks to a combined 37 points over their last three weeks. In each of those three games, Winston attempted 30 or fewer passing attempts. The Bucs are also operating at the second-slowest pace in the NFL over the last five weeks, per Pat Thorman of PFF. Now facing the Cowboys, this game is sure to project for the fewest snaps of the week.
Pace concerns aside, the Bucs do project to trail in this game. It would be their first true trailing scenario over the past three weeks and should result in more passes for Winston. With Anthony Brown struggling, the Cowboys deployed Brandon Carr in shadow coverage against Odell Beckham in Week 14. We should expect them to deploy him in a similar fashion against Evans this weekend. Outside of some uncharacteristic drops, Beckham dusted Carr to the tune of 94 yards and a touchdown. Carr, PFF’s 47th-graded cornerback in coverage, is no concern for Evans. Evans currently projects for the highest floor among WRs in our Player Models on both FD and DK.
Odell Beckham Jr. vs. Darius Slay
Beckham should expect to be followed by Slay this weekend, and possibly even into the slot. Tavon Wilson, the Lions’ slot corner, has played only 99 snaps this season and is allowing the second-most fantasy points per route (0.51) among qualified CBs. It’s difficult to imagine the Lions allowing him to get matched up with Beckham. Per Nathan Jahnke of PFF, Slay has not allowed more than 31 receiving yards in any of his four games since returning from injury. He has allowed 71 total receiving yards over that span.
Not only is the matchup a negative for Beckham, but the projected pace of this game is a concern as well: The Lions are playing at the third-slowest pace in the NFL. That said, even against a slower Dallas team, Beckham saw nine targets. Regardless, Beckham faces a very difficult matchup and projects for volume concerns against the slow-paced Lions. However, always a bet to take a slant to the house, Beckham still projects for the third-highest ceiling among DK WRs.
Notable Upgrades
Mike Wallace and Steve Smith vs. Nolan Carroll and Leodis McKelvin
Carroll and McKelvin have been utter disasters over the last few weeks. McKelvin now grades as PFF’s 76th-ranked cornerback in coverage and Carroll grades 107th. Over their last four weeks, the Eagles have allowed Doug Baldwin, Davante Adams, Jordy Nelson, Brandon LaFell, and DeSean Jackson to crack 90 yards receiving. While it is difficult to project volume in the Ravens’ offense, both Smith and Wallace should have plenty of opportunities to burn McKelvin and Carroll for some big plays.
Michael Crabtree vs. Trevor Williams
Amari Cooper should spend his day shadowed by Casey Hayward, PFF’s fourth-ranked cornerback in coverage. This leaves Williams to cover Crabtree opposite of Hayward. Williams has not played enough snaps to qualify for a PFF ranking, but he has received a poor 52.1 coverage score, which would place him in the bottom 100. With Hayward playing lights out, Carr should look often to Crabtree in the superior matchup.
Notable Downgrades
Allen Robinson vs. A.J. Bouye
Not that anyone needs much reason to downgrade Robinson right now, but he draws a pretty tough matchup this week. Bouye does not shadow opposing WR1s, but A-Rob does spend the majority of his day on Bouye’s side of the field. He will run nearly 50 percent of his routes at Bouye. Pro Football Focus has graded Bouye as their third-best cornerback in coverage this season; he is allowing only 0.20 points per route against him. Marqise Lee, on the other hand, will run the majority of his routes against Robert Nelson. Nelson is allowing a hefty 0.36 fantasy points per route.
Patriots Receivers vs. Broncos Secondary
Receivers that are facing DVOA’s top-ranked passing defense get a major downgrade. Per DVOA, the Broncos are allowing 32.3 percent less production than league average. Chris Harris and Aqib Talib are PFF’s No. 1 and No. 2 coverage cornerbacks this season. While Bradley Roby has graded poorly in coverage, he has given up only 0.23 fantasy points per route against him. The Broncos’ passing defense is allowing a league-low 5.3 yards per reception. They have also allowed a league-low 10 passing touchdowns. This is a major downgrade for all Patriots.
