The Saturday Only Slate Breakdown offers data-driven analysis each week. For more of our weekly football content, visit our NFL homepage.
Quarterbacks
Matthew Stafford: $6,400 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel
After playing on the road for three of their past four games, the Lions return home as a five-point favorite implied to score 24.5 points against the Bears. Historically, quarterbacks average a -1.06 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and 42.2 percent Consistency rating in the second division game of the year, but surprisingly, Stafford has been unfazed in this spot, posting a +1.05 Plus/Minus 54.5 percent Consistency rating since 2014. The Lions also have a league-best 9-4 over/under record and the highest pass funnel rating of Week 15. Though his 299 yards passing benefited only 1.7 percent of the field in the DraftKings Millionaire Maker the last time these two teams met, Stafford had nearly a 70 percent completion rate and two touchdowns.
Philip Rivers: $7,200 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel
Playing as a quarterback in Arrowhead is typically not a pleasant experience — opposing signal callers have averaged a -1.32 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and a -0.88 Plus/Minus on FanDuel since 2014. However, the Kansas City Chiefs have proven that they are not the same threatening defense without Eric Berry and Dee Ford, consequently ranking 28th in DVOA this season. In 30 road games since 2014, Rivers has averaged 19.41 PPG and a +2.11 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and 17.67 PPG with a +0.56 Plus/Minus on FanDuel. Rivers is the most expensive quarterback on both sites and could be a viable pivot off of Stafford in guaranteed prize pools.
Running Backs
Kareem Hunt: $7,100 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel
If you’ve been chasing Hunt’s insane efficiency since Week 5, I guess congrats are in order, although you’ve likely been on the same bankroll trajectory as Amari Cooper truthers (sorry Pete). After Hunt’s 138 total yards on 28 touches in Week 14, logic could certainly lead you toward Hunt as a locked in feature-back the rest of the way. The Chargers defense offers a favorable funnel situation on the ground, ranking sixth against the pass and 28th against the run. Meanwhile, Andy Reid doesn’t want us to have nice things and is likely plotting how to get Charcandrick West five to six touches.
Melvin Gordon: $7,400 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel
Per my Rushing Expectation Methodology, Gordon is a below-average runner posting rushing Expectation Scores in the 42nd percentile in 2015 and the 22nd percentile in 2016. So he less talented than Hunt, but Bryan Mears had this to say about Gordon in the Week 15 Market Share Report:
Melvin Gordon leads the league with 11 opportunities inside the 10-yard line over the past four games. Say what you want about whether Gordon is good at football; it’s impossible to ignore high-value touches like he’s getting. This Chargers offense is humming right now, and they’ll look to keep things rolling in Arrowhead in Week 15. The Chiefs rank 30th in rush DVOA this season.
The usage is undeniable. Over his past four games, Gordon has averaged 22.5 touches per game and 89.25 yards from scrimmage. Falling into the end zone (at least once) in a pristine matchup seems probable. Despite scoring zero touchdowns in his rookie season, Gordon has been a monster in the division since entering the league — especially on the road — posting 17.43 FPPG and a +6.19 Plus/Minus on FanDuel in six games.
Theo Riddick: $5,200 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel
The return of Ameer Abdullah this week could slow down Riddick, who has averaged 9.5 carries and 7.5 targets per game while scoring three touchdowns over the past two weeks. As a five-point home favorite, game-script is concerning for Riddick’s market share if Abdullah is healthy but he makes an intriguing contrarian play.
Wide Receivers
Keenan Allen: $8,400 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel
Allen is the top-rated wide receiver in the Bales Model on both sites. Despite being one of The Three Donkeys, Bales earned his first seat to the WFFC with him back in Week 11, which probably isn’t relevant. But I did want to say good luck anyway. Run hot buddy, just think of all the Etherium t-shirts and GrubHub you can buy with $2 million.
Anyway, it’s really not too complicated with Allen. His 12.25 targets and 136.75 receiving yards per game over his past four trails only Antonio Brown (14.75, 156.75). The next closest player over this time period is Julio Jones, and he has roughly 100 less receiving yards. Oh yeah, the Chiefs’ pass defense is bad, and Allen should run the majority of his routes against Steven Nelson who ranks as Pro Football Focus’ 73rd ranked cornerback. The only player with a better CB/WR advantage on the entire slate is Julio against Brent Grimes. I swear if I hear the words “eruption spot” 13 or 14 more times … I’m outta here!
Marvin Jones: $6,200 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel
Chicago ranks 22th in DVOA against opposing WR1s and 26th in regards to defending the middle of the field. Obviously, the matchup sets up well for Golden Tate, but consider: Jones has gotten 40 percent of the Lions’ market share of air yards over the past four games. He is tied with Allen and Tyreek Hill for the most DraftKings Pro Trends at the wide receiver position.
Tight Ends
Hunter Henry: $4,800 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel
Travis Kelce is on the slate, and despite his high price tag ($7,000 on DraftKings and $8,400 FanDuel), he is probably still worth it with a massive 27.0 percent target market share and 35 percent market share of air yards over his past four games. If you don’t want to pay all the way up for Kelce, consider his opponent. Quietly, Henry has a 19 percent target share over the past two games even with Allen going completely ham. His red zone usage is especially intriguing — six red zone targets and two touchdowns over his past four games. The Chiefs have allowed the second-fewest touchdowns to tight ends this season, but the eighth-most receiving yards.
Good luck this week and be sure to research with our suite of Tools.
