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Quarterbacks
Matt Ryan: $6,300 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel
The Falcons are currently six-point favorites on the road against a Buccaneers defense that Ryan torched for 317 yards three weeks ago and currently ranks 31st in pass DVOA (Football Outsiders). In case you’ve already forgotten, Julio Jones erupted for 253 yards and two touchdowns against this defense, but Mohamed Sanu stole one of those with his best Boobie Miles impression, throwing a 51-yard touchdown bomb. OOHH! And he can pass!
Although Julio isn’t likely to have 253 receiving yards again, the Falcons could certainly replicate their 34-point performance in Week 12. Further, it is far less likely that Ryan is involved on just one of those scores this time around. Ryan has thrown more interceptions (three) than touchdowns (two) over his past three games, but, in 30 road games since 2014, Ryan has averaged 19.16 PPG and a +0.84 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and 17.92 PPG with a +0.16 Plus/Minus on FanDuel. The Falcons have the highest implied point total (27.5) on the primetime slate, and Matty Ice owns the highest ceiling projection of any quarterback.
Dak Prescott: $6,400 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel
Prescott — despite being the No. 1 rated primetime DraftKings quarterback in each of the Three Donkeys Models — has played below expectations in four of five games since Ezekiel Elliott began his six-game suspension. Over that time period, Dak has an undesirable 13.76 PPG with a -4.75 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and 14.28 PPG with a -4.42 Plus/Minus on FanDuel. That said, he’s seemingly turned things around recently with two or more touchdowns in three straight games, and Oakland is dead last in pass DVOA.
Running Backs
Devonta Freeman: $6,200 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel
Tevin Coleman scored two touchdowns the last time these two teams met, but he has already been ruled out for Monday Night Football. The Tampa Bay defense funnels offenses toward the pass game, but they are still well below average against the run — something the Falcons are doing a lot more of lately. Over the past three weeks, Atlanta’s 48.33 run play percentage is sixth-highest, and Freeman has averaged 23.1 DraftKings PPG with an average of 18.6 rushes in seven games Coleman has missed since 2015.
Marshawn Lynch: $5,100 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel
After Freeman, the running back position is incredibly thin. Over the course of the past three weeks, Beast Mode has averaged 18.67 touches (along with 2.67 targets) and led the Raiders with three opportunities inside the 10-yard line. Dallas ranks 27th in rushing DVOA, but the Raiders are slight underdogs, so it’s conceivable that Lynch is scripted out of this game unless he continues to see at least some passing game involvement. If he does, Dallas has been especially vulnerable to running backs out of the backfield, allowing the second-most receptions and third-most yards to the position.
Wide Receivers
Julio Jones: $8,500 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel
Mount St. Julio owns a massive 35 percent target market share and 52 percent market share of air yards over his past four games. Julio’s matchup against Brent Grimes is Pro Football Focus’ No. 1 WR/CB advantage of Week 15, and Bryan Mears had this to say about the Falcons in his Funnel Defense Ratings piece:
The Falcons-Bucs game on Monday night is projected to have warm 70 degree weather in Tampa and owns the week’s highest combined pass funnel rating. In yesterday’s Buffet podcast, Scooch told Chad that the public is back on the Falcons after beating a great Saints team and beating this very Bucs team by 14 points back in Week 12.
Julio could see massive ownership on this short slate, which means you could gain a massive edge over the field if you fade him and he posts a dud. Still, that’s scary: He owns easily the top raw points projection at the position.
Dez Bryant: $6,500 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel
Bryant’s 28.0 percent target market share over the past four weeks leads the Cowboys, and he’s one of five wide receivers with double-digit targets inside the 10-yard line this season. Of those players, Dez and Julio have the lowest catch rate at 40.0 and 30.0 percent, respectively. That said, Dez is the league’s most-cornerback sensitive receiver and should abuse PFF’s 59th-ranked player at the position. It’s also a bonus that Dez has a strong .60 correlation coefficient with Dak, especially since most of the ownership on the slate will likely revolve around Ryan-Julio.
Tight Ends
Jared Cook: $4,400 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel
You could run your Dak-Dez stacks back with Michael Crabtree, but you could also gain an ownership advantage with Cook. He leads all tight ends on the slate in target share (17.0 percent) and market share of air yards (17.0 percent) over his past four games. Still, there’s risk: He had just one reception for nine yards on five targets in his last full game without Amari Cooper… and that was against the defensively-inept Giants.
Good luck this week and be sure to research with our suite of Tools.
