The Week 15 NFL Dashboard
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Steelers at Bengals
The Steelers prepare for the second straight road game as they head to Cincinnati as three-point road favorites. The over/under for this game sits at 44 points, as AFC North divisional matchups are often low-scoring. The Steelers have an implied total of 23.5 points, while the Bengals have an implied total of 20.5.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Writer: John Proctor
QB – Ben Roethlisberger
Big Ben predictably struggled on the road last week, throwing three interceptions. He now travels to Cincinnati for the second divisional matchup with the Bengals. Roethlisberger has thrown only eight touchdowns in seven road games this season. He has thrown 17 TDs in five home games. On the road, he’s averaging 1.14 INTs per game; at home, 0.6.
This week the Steelers face a run-flowing funnel defense that is 17th against the pass in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). On the season, the Bengals hold opposing QBs to bottom-10 ranks in yards per attempt (6.5) and quarterback rating (83.47). They are also hold QBs to only 10.3 yards per completion. As a road QB playing in a divisional game, Ben rates in the bottom-10 of DraftKings QBs in the Levitan Player Model.
RB – Le’Veon Bell
Bell put together a historic performance last weekend, with 298 total yards and three touchdowns. This was his fourth straight game with over 20 carries and 100 rushing yards. He also has five rushing TDs in that span. However, as his rushing totals have increased his work in the passing game has decreased: Bell has seen only 17 targets over the last three weeks.
Bell faces another weak rushing defense this week, as the Bengals are allowing 4.5 yards per carry, the fifth-highest mark in the NFL. However, the Bengals are near league average with only 10 rushing TDs allowed on the season. They’re fresh off of a game in which they allowed 113 rushing yards on 10 carries to Isaiah Crowell. Bell has the highest RB ceiling projections for DK and FanDuel.
RB – DeAngelo Williams
Williams (knee) finally seems likely to play this week — not that it matters. With Le’Veon handling over 90 percent of the RB work, Williams will not be a fantasy-relevant option as long as Bell is healthy. If he is out again this weekend, Fitzgerald Toussaint will continue pretend to be Le’Veon’s backup.
WR – Antonio Brown
Brown now has four straight games with fewer than 100 yards. Partially because of game flow, the Steelers have been running the offense through Bell, as Ben has fewer than 40 attempts in each game over the last month. As favorites, the Steelers once again might choose to rely more on the running game, thereby limiting Brown’s volume.
While the Bengals have been fairly strong against the pass, they don’t have a single cornerback who is particularly threatening to Brown. Their strongest cornerback, Joshua Shaw, plays exclusively in the slot and should cover Brown on only 15-20 percent of his routes. Per our Matchups tool, the other 80 percent of Brown’s routes should come against Adam Jones and Dre Kirkpatrick, Pro Football Focus’ 54th- and 51st-ranked CBs in coverage. While concerns over Brown’s recent production are warranted, he still continues to have a top-5 projected ceiling on both FD and DK.
WR – Eli Rogers
Ladarius Green has emerged in this offense, and Rogers seems to be forgotten. With Green playing some snaps in the slot, Rogers has seen only six targets over the last two weeks.
WR – Cobi Hamilton
Hamilton had a chance to seize the deep-threat role vacated by Sammie Coates, but he’s been targeted only six times over the last three weeks. He has 21 targets over half a season’s worth of games.
TE – Ladarius Green
Green did not follow up his breakout game with a big performance, as he managed only two catches for 25 yards in Week 14. Luckily, the Steelers continue to use him solely as a pass catcher. He was targeted on six of Ben’s 31 attempts. While his usage did drop, it’s encouraging that he saw almost 20 percent of Ben’s passes. Green is in a great spot to bounce back this week, as he is facing a defense ranked 20th in pass DVOA against TEs. Over the last 12 months, the Bengals have allowed TEs to accumulate a +3.6 DK Opponent Plus/Minus, the second-highest mark in the slate.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Writer: John Proctor
QB – Andy Dalton
In his four games without a healthy A.J. Green (hamstring), Dalton has been basically the same player he was earlier in the season with Green. Per RotoViz:
If Green is unable to play this week, Dalton still could have a good game.
Dalton now faces a Steelers defense that is 13th in pass DVOA and has 17 sacks during the recent four-game winning streak. Unfortunately for Dalton, his offensive line has the sixth-highest adjusted sack rate allowed (per FO). Dalton is the second-lowest rated FD QB in the Levitan Model.
RB – Jeremy Hill
In a prime bounceback spot as the team’s lead runner, Hill ravaged the Browns ‘rushing defense’ for 111 rushing yards and a touchdown on 25 carries. With RB Giovani Bernard out of the lineup, Hill has seen 13 targets over the last three games and is averaging 20 rushing attempts in those games.
Hill faces a defense that is 10th in rush DVOA and has allowed only 11 rushing touchdowns on the season. However, the Steelers rushing defense is not invincible, as it is allowing RB units to score 27.5 DK and 23.5 FD PPG, the fifth-highest totals in the league. The Steelers also rank 19th against RBs in pass DVOA.
RB – Rex Burkhead
Burkhead continues to operate as a change-of-pace back and Hill’s backup. He does not have standalone fanstasy value, but he plays enough snaps to limit Hill’s ceiling. Burkhead has seven targets and 17 carries over the last two weeks.
WR – A.J. Green
Green (hamstring) is officially doubtful for Week 15. The Bengals reportedly plan to put AJG through a pre-game workout to gauge his availability, but he’s unlikely to play.
Prior to his hamstring injury, Green had eight or more targets in every full game he played. He was averaging 11 targets per game over that span. However, Green was a a volatile player, clearing 120 yards in four of his games and failing to surpass 80 in another four, one of which was his 38-yard performance against Pittsburgh in Week 2, his worst game of the season.
Green struggled against CB Ross Cockrell, who (per PFF) shadowed him on 52 of his snaps. Cockrell is likely to shadow Green again this weekend. PFF grades Ross Cockrell as the No. 26 cover CB this season.
Green will be extremely difficult to trust this weekend if he does play.
WR – Brandon LaFell
In Green’s absence, LaFell has piled up 31 targets over four games. However, he has managed to catch only 15 of them for 187 yards, failing to reach 50 yards in three of those four weeks. Prior to Green’s injury, LaFell had only two games with more than six targets. That said, one of those was in Week 2 when Cockrell shadowed Green. If that were to happen again, LaFell would likely run most of his routes against Artie Burns, PFF’s 53rd-graded CB in coverage. LaFell projects for a 23.5-point DK ceiling.
WR – Tyler Boyd
With Green back, Boyd will likely be little more than a part-time slot receiver. Boyd has not seen more than 80 percent of the snaps since Week 8, and in this game he’s likely to run most of his routes against William Gay, PFF’s 16th-ranked cover man and the Steelers strongest CB. Prior to Green’s injury, Boyd had only two games with at least five targets.
TE – Tyler Eifert
The real beneficiary of Green’s injury has been Eifert, who has four TDs over the last four games. However, the Steelers have been very strong against TEs this year, ranking eighth in pass DVOA against the position. Regardless, the Steelers look to be an almost-neutral DK matchup with a -0.1 Opponent Plus/Minus for TEs over the last year. Eifert has the highest TD ceiling of any TE in any given week.
News Updates
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