The Week 15 NFL Dashboard
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Rams at Seahawks
The Cleveland Browns are 0-13, yet they’re currently implied to score 3.75 more points than the Rams. This game has a low 39.5-point Vegas total, and the Rams are currently implied for a slate-low 11.75 points as 16-point dogs versus the Seahawks. What a time to be alive.
Los Angeles Rams
Writer: Bryan Mears
QB – Jared Goff
Goff has thrown five interceptions over his last three games and now faces a Seahawks defense that ranks sixth overall in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) and 10th against the pass. He’s quarterbacking a team implied for 11.75 points. Let’s take a look at our NFL Trends tool to see how QBs have historically performed with implied totals of, let’s say, fewer than 13 points:
Oh. This is the lowest team total in our database (which goes back to 2014). That doesn’t bode well for Goff. He’s one of the lowest-rated QBs for both sites in all of our Pro Player Models, and he owns a slate-low -2.01 DraftKings Projected Plus/Minus.
RB – Todd Gurley
Gurley had perhaps his best game of the year in Week 14, scoring 17.3 DK points on a 16-61-1 line with three catches as well. However, that was against a Falcons defense that ranks 28th in rush DVOA. Seattle ranks a stout third on the season, allowing 23.8 percent less production than league average. Gurley has solid market share data: He owns 74.07 percent of the Rams’ rushes over the past four games (per the Market Share Report). That said, he’s an incredibly risky play given the low team total and terrible matchup: RBs have exceeded DK value only 32.1 percent of the time against the Seahawks. Still, Gurley’s only $4,500 DK this week and will likely have minuscule ownership in tournaments.
Note: Benny Cunningham is out for Week 15, which means that Gurley will get nearly all of the RB touches in the Rams offense.
WR – Kenny Britt
Britt continues his excellent season in LA: He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his last nine games, averaging an impressive +5.89 DK Plus/Minus during that time. He’s scored at least 14 DK points in five of his last six games, and he had a team-high 12 targets last week against the Falcons. He leads the team with 26.32 percent of the targets over the past four weeks, and he even has the most opportunities inside the 10-yard line over that time:
He’s not a complete fade even with the awful team total: At $4,600 DK, he’s projected to outperform salary-based expectations by 2.15 points. Per our NFL Matchups tool, he’s set to run most of his routes against DeShawn Shead instead of Richard Sherman. Both are top-40 cornerbacks on the year, per Pro Football Focus, but Sherman is the superior player with an excellent 81.3 coverage grade. Britt is a fringe tournament player, but he’s perhaps the one Ram to have a little exposure to in this game.
WR – Brian Quick
Quick is expected to line up opposite Sherman in Week 15. He had only 2.0 DK points on three targets in Week 14 versus a very beatable Falcons pass defense. Against Sherman and the Seahawks secondary, he’s not a recommended fantasy option. He has only 14.29 percent of the team’s targets over the past four weeks.
WR – Tavon Austin
Austin has owned only 12.78 percent of the Rams’ targets over the last four weeks, although he did miss one week during that time frame, and he saw 11 targets in Week 14. He’s put up back-to-back games of 15-plus DK points, but he still has yet to exceed 82 yards in a single game this season. He does have a nice matchup this week: He’ll line up in the slot against CB Jeremy Lane, who is PFF’s 86th-ranked corner on the year with a 60.0 coverage grade. Still, it’s hard to get excited about a WR with a projected FD ceiling of only 11.8 points and floor projection of 1.7.
TE – Lance Kendricks
Goff has not looked Kendricks’ way in recent weeks: Kendricks has caught only three balls on eight targets over his past two games. Seattle is mediocre against TEs — they rank 15th versus the position in pass DVOA — but Kendricks isn’t getting enough volume to be a fantasy option. He saw only 7.32 percent of the Rams’ targets in Week 14.
Seattle Seahawks
Writer: Bryan Mears
QB – Russell Wilson
The Seahawks are currently implied for 27.75 points — the third-highest mark of the week. This game couldn’t come at a better time, as Wilson had easily his worst game of the year in Week 14 versus the Packers: He went 22-of-39 for 240 yards, one touchdown, and five interceptions. After posting three straight 20-plus FD outings in mid-November, Wilson has disappointed in each of his last three games. For all the talk about Aaron Rodgers‘ inability awhile ago to hit the 300-yard passing bonus, Wilson has done it only twice this year. Wilson is priced as the QB15 on FD, which makes him intriguing in tournaments despite his recent poor play.
RB – Thomas Rawls
Almost all RBs this week are, in terms of historical pricing, much cheaper on FD than on DK. That holds true for Rawls, whose $6,400 price tag comes with a +3.20 Projected Plus/Minus, six Pro Trends, and a 99 percent Bargain Rating. Rawls came back to earth last week after scoring 24.3 FD points against the Panthers in Week 13: He had only 7.9 FD points on 12 rushes in Week 14. That said, Rawls’ low touches were due to game flow: The Seahawks were down 21-3 at halftime and 31-3 at the beginning of the fourth quarter. Rawls had 46.15 percent of the carries last week and owns 49.53 percent of the carries over the past four weeks. The Seahawks are in a different spot this week as 16-point favorites, which is historically a situation in which RBs have thrived:
RB – Alex Collins
Collins had seven carries and three targets last week, but he’s not projected to be a large part of the offense moving forward.
WR – Doug Baldwin
Baldwin typically goes as Wilson goes: Of the Seahawks’ WRs, Baldwin has the strongest correlation (0.40) with Wilson in terms of fantasy production. In a week in which Wilson threw five picks, it’s no surprise that Baldwin also struggled, scoring only 10.6 DK points on 11 targets. That said, this is a plus matchup against a Rams defense that ranks 20th in pass DVOA, and Baldwin owns a team-high 22.14 percent of the team’s targets over the past four games. He has a fairly tough individual matchup against Rams slot corner Lamarcus Joyner, who is PFF’s 28th-ranked CB on the year with a 79.1 coverage grade. That said, Baldwin is only $6,800 FD, the Seahawks are implied for 27.75 points, and he’s a solid bet to see seven-plus targets. That’s worth tournament exposure.
WR – Tyler Lockett
Lockett has seen six targets in each of his last six games, although he has only nine receptions during that time. He owns a low 15.0 percent of the team’s target share over the past month, and he could struggle to find volume against Trumaine Johnson, PFF’s 22nd-ranked CB on the year with an excellent 81.4 coverage grade. He presents most value on FD, where his near-min $4,700 salary comes with a +2.35 Projected Plus/Minus and an 88 percent Bargain Rating.
WR – Jermaine Kearse
Kearse put up a dud last week, scoring only 1.2 FD points on six targets and a putrid 1-7-0 line, but he’s a sneaky play in Week 15. He’s only $4,600 FD, and he’s set to line up against easily the Rams’ worst CB, E.J. Gaines, PFF’s 117th-ranked corner (out of 120 eligible CBs). Gaines has a miserable 37.4 coverage grade. Kearse has a 15.4-point projected FD ceiling along with a +3.10 Projected Plus/Minus. He’s a worthy GPP dart in large-field tournaments.
TE – Jimmy Graham
Graham really struggled last week against a Green Bay defense that has been the seventh-best unit versus TEs this season. He posted only 2.1 FD points on four targets and a 1-16-0 line, and he hasn’t been above 67 receiving yards in six weeks. That would be fine if he were a threat in the red zone, but he’s seen only one target inside the 10-yard line over the last month:
(Hello again, Kearse.) The Rams have been slightly above average against TEs this season, ranking 13th versus the position in pass DVOA. Graham additionally has a -1.6 Opponent Plus/Minus. He’s always worth rostering in GPPs because of his talent, but his $5,300 DK and $6,400 FD salaries make him more of a contrarian option in Week 15.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
