The Week 15 NFL Dashboard
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Raiders at Chargers
The Raiders travel to San Diego in a matchup against the Chargers that has a Vegas total of 49 points. San Diego is a three-point home underdog implied to score 23 points. Oakland’s implied for 26.
Oakland Raiders
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Derek Carr
Carr has been one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the league this season, but his Week 14 performance on Thursday Night Football was one of the worst in recent history. Maybe it was because of the cold and his injured pinky finger, but Carr completed only 17-of-41 passes, averaging just 2.85 yards per attempt. And he might’ve been worse than those numbers.
This game is probably a tough ‘get right spot,’ as the Chargers defense is ninth against the pass in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Also, FanDuel QBs with comparable salaries tend to perform below salary-based expectations (per our Plus/Minus metric) when facing a division rival for the second time in a season. Per our Trends tool:
Carr has only two Pro Trends on DraftKings.
RB – Latavius Murray
The Chargers don’t have a true funnel defense, but they rank 15th in rush DVOA and 17th in pass DVOA against RBs. The good news for Murray is that the Raiders starting left guard, Kelechi Osemele, is expected to return for Week 15. He’s Pro Football Focus’ second-best guard this season. Murray’s tough to trust in cash games, but he’s appealing as a GPP RB, given that he’s not expensive, he’s used in the red zone and passing game, and he’s usually not heavily owned. He has seven touchdowns over the last five games and has exceeded salary-based expectations in seven straight:
RB – DeAndre Washington, Jalen Richard, and Jamize Olawale
Too talented to ignore, too limited to roster, too productive to allow Latavius a real chance to be a workhorse, this trio of terror is the DFS WOAT.
WR – Amari Cooper
Cooper is dealing with a shoulder injury but has struggled to get going lately, failing to surpass 60 receiving yards in a game since Week 8. He’ll look to break out of his slump against a Chargers defense allowing the eighth-most passing yards this season. That said, Cooper has a tough matchup this week. Per our Matchups tool, Cooper is expected to run the majority of his routes against Casey Hayward, who has a near-elite 88.3 Pro Football Focus coverage grade — the fourth-highest mark of the year. Rosterable only in guaranteed prize pools, Cooper has a FantasyLabs ownership projection of five to eight percent on DK.
Cooper’s officially questionable but expected to play.
WR – Michael Crabtree
Crabtree (finger) was limited in practice this week but is officially questionable and expected to play. Crabtree has a top-20 target share in the league this year and is second in contested catch rate – 84.6 percent on 13 targets. Crabtree has a lot of TD equity on a weekly basis and is tied for first with eight DK Pro Trends.
WR – Seth Roberts
Carr looks to Roberts in the red zone, but he is not a focal point in the Raiders offense. He has a scary projected floor of 0.8 points on FD and a ceiling of 12.3 points.
TE – Clive Walford
Walford has had more than three catches in a game just once all year.
San Diego Chargers
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Philip Rivers
Rivers threw three interceptions last week in a great matchup in Carolina, but he’s also thrown for multiple touchdowns in six straight weeks. This week he’s at home with a solid matchup against the Raiders defense, which is 21st in pass DVOA. Rivers is priced as the DK QB13, but he has the sixth-highest ceiling projection. Rivers has some potential as a GPP play at five to eight percent projected ownership. Home underdog QBs with comparable point projections tend to perform above salary-based expectations on DK:
RB – Melvin Gordon
Gordon (hip, knee) is out for Week 15.
RB – Kenneth Farrow
The undrafted free agent is expected to start this week. He’ll likely split time with career underperformer Ronnie Hillman, but Farrow has the chance to be a workhorse against a Raiders defense that’s 26th in rush DVOA. Priced outside of the top-20 RBs, Farrow’s in consideration for both cash games and tournaments. He’s currently the No. 1 RB in the Levitan Model on DK, where he has a position-high Projected Plus/Minus and the fifth-highest floor projection. If the Chargers continue to run the ball inside the 10-yard line at a high rate, Farrow has a reasonable chance of scoring. Farrow’s not a great player, but opportunity is everything.
RB – Ronnie Hillman
Expected to work in with Farrow, the veteran Hillman has made a career of lowering the ceilings of those around him. If he had handed Michelangelo a paint brush in 1508, The Creation of Adam would’ve been on the Sistine Chapel’s floor.
WR – Tyrell Williams
Williams (shoulder) is clearly limited by his injury, as he has just four receptions over the past two weeks. Before the injury, he was absolutely smashing value:
Ultimately, Tyrell’s been one of the league’s best WRs when healthy and not facing the Broncos:
He has plenty of weekly upside for tournaments, but Rivers’ erratic play and Williams’ injured shoulder make him too risky for cash games.
WR – Travis Benjamin
Last week, Benjamin managed to find his way into the winning DraftKings Fantasy Football World Championship lineup. He scored -0.2 DK points on three targets. Benjamin’s been a disaster as he’s battled through a PCL injury. He hasn’t cleared five points in any of his last four games.
WR – Dontrelle Inman
With the offense decimated by injuries, Inman is seemingly the only healthy WR on the team. He has averaged 6.75 targets over the past four weeks and has three touchdowns over that period. He doesn’t rate highly in our models, but he still provides value at $5,500 on FD, where he holds a 94 percent Bargain Rating. He’s projected for zero to one percent ownership in the Sunday Million.
TE – Antonio Gates
This week, Gates has another soft matchup against a Raiders defense that ranks 21st in pass DVOA against TEs. Gates is just three TDs shy of owning the all-time TE record outright. At some point, the Chargers are going to try to get the ball to him near the goal line, right? At just $5,300 FD, he is the No. 4 TE in the Tournament Model and has the fourth-highest ceiling on the slate.
TE – Hunter Henry
At $2,900 DK, Henry’s a top-10 TE in our Tournament Model on DK, where he owns a 92 percent Bargain Rating and is projected to be zero to one percent owned in the Millionaire Maker.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
