The Week 15 NFL Dashboard
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Patriots at Broncos
The Patriots travel to Denver for a matchup against the Broncos that Vegas has given for a game total of 43.5 points. Denver is a three-point home underdog implied to score 20.25 points. New England’s implied for 23.25 points.
New England Patriots
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Tom Brady
Brady has been in play every single week this season, but this is his toughest matchup to date, and he’s still not cheap. Denver is first in overall defense and against the pass in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). That makes Brady hard to roster in cash games and even guaranteed prize pools. Brady is the fourth-lowest rated QB in the Levitan Player Model on DraftKings, where the Broncos own a league-low -4.3 Opponent Plus/Minus for QBs.
RB – LeGarrette Blount
As good as the Broncos defense is, it’s been vulnerable on the ground, ranking 25th in rush DVOA. Blount is an underappreciated GPP option as the Patriots’ primary goal-line back, but (per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report) he’s recently lost work near the end zone to Dion Lewis and James White:
Blount has averaged more than four fewer opportunities per game since Lewis has returned. Per RotoViz:
At the same time, Blount leads the league with 14 rushing TDs and 28 carries inside the 10-yard line, and the Patriots are projected to win. Blount always has a good chance to score a TD.
He is currently projected for just two to four percent ownership in the Sunday Million and is the No. 6 RB in the Tournament Model on FD.
RB – James White / Dion Lewis
Leave it to Bill Belichick to ruin the value of two good RBs. The return of Lewis has severely devalued the pass-catching RB role in New England. There’s plenty of receiving work to go around, but as long as both White and Lewis are getting targets neither one is likely to be dependable or productive enough to roster. They have matchup that isn’t unfavorable, as the Broncos are 16th in pass DVOA against RBs. Neither RB rates well in our Pro Models.
WR – Julian Edelman
His massive volume over the past four weeks is appealing for cash games, but he still has just two TDs on the season. He has the potential to score multiple TDs in any given game — especially now with Rob Gronkowski out — but Edelman’s matchup this week is brutal. Per our Matchups tool, Edelman is expected run most of his routes against Chris Harris Jr., who has a league-high 91.5 Pro Football Focus coverage grade. We’re projecting him for two to four percent ownership.
WR – Malcolm Mitchell
Of all the passing options this week for the Patriots, Mitchell has the best matchup. He’s expected to run most of his routes against Bradley Roby, who has a poor PFF coverage grade of 51.8. Mitchell has the ability to exploit that mismatch.
Brady clearly likes this kid, who has 27 targets, 21 receptions, 263 yards, and four TDs over the past four games — but veteran Chris Hogan has still played more snaps since his return three weeks ago, and Mitchell won’t be matched up against Roby all game. Still, Mitchell leads the Pats WRs with a +1.52 DK Projected Plus/Minus.
WR – Chris Hogan
Hogan has seen an average of 5.7 targets since his return three weeks ago, but chasing last week’s massive game seems unwise considering that he’s expected to match up with Aqib Talib, who has a 91.4 PFF coverage grade — the second-highest mark in the league.
TE – Martellus Bennett
Bennett got back in the end zone last week in a tough matchup against the Ravens, who ranked No. 1 in pass DVOA against TEs. The Broncos are No. 6 against TEs. Bennett has some contrarian GPP appeal, but without Gronk around to do some of the blocking work Bennett’s upside as a receiver is limited.
Denver Broncos
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Trevor Siemian
He’s been serviceable lately, and the Patriots have the third-worst defensive line in adjusted sack rate. However, the Patriots are also allowing only 17.7 points per game to opponents, the third-lowest average in the NFL. Siemian is a GPP-only play this week against a defense that does not give up touchdowns. At zero to one percent projected ownership in the Sunday Million, Siemian is just $6,600 FD and the No. 4 QB in the Levitan Model.
RB – Devontae Booker
This backfield is extremely muddled due to Booker’s recent poor performance and the recent addition of veteran Justin Forsett. Neither impressed against the Titans last week. Booker led 29-26 in snaps, but he rushed only three times for one yard. Pass protection could limit Booker’s role, as Kubiak has shown faith in Forsett in this area in the past. With the uncertainty surrounding Booker, it’s hard to trust him against a Pats defense that is No. 2 in rush DVOA.
RB – Justin Forsett
He fumbled on his first carry, but the veteran still split carries with Booker in his first game with the team. He is probably the favorite to lead the team in carries, giving Forsett the potential to smash value at the stone minimum on DK, but this could easily be a pass-heavy week for the Broncos, especially since the Patriots are stout against the run but 27th in pass DVOA. Targeted heavily as Kubiak’s lead back with the 2014 Ravens, Forsett could be relied on as a receiver against the Pats, who are 24th in pass DVOA against RBs.
WR – Demaryius Thomas
Both Thomas and Sanders are intriguing each week because of how concentrated the targets have been all season. Over the last four weeks, Thomas and Sanders have 30.82 and 28.77 percent of the Broncos’ targets.
Per our Trends tool, home WRs with comparable salaries and point projections tend to perform above salary-based expectation on FD:
At just $6,700 FD, Thomas is tied for second with seven Pro Trends, and he has the slate’s seventh-highest ceiling projection. Thomas is currently the No. 2 FD WR in Bales Model and is in GPP consideration at just two to four percent projected ownership in the Sunday Million.
WR – Emmanuel Sanders
Like Thomas, Sanders has a lot to offer. It’s hard to get over who’s throwing him the ball — but at least it’s not Paxton Lynch. Per RotoViz:
Sanders is the No. 5 WR in the Bales Model on FD, where at just $6,600 he has the slate’s sixth-highest ceiling and a Bargain Rating of 97 percent.
WR – Jordan Norwood
He has two targets over the past four games and just one TD all season. Norwood dreams of the day when someone accidentally forgets to take him out of a dummy GPP lineup.
TE – Virgil Green
Green still has just three red-zone targets this entire season and hasn’t caught a pass in three straight games. A.J. Derby actually has more targets than Green over the last four games.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
