The Week 15 NFL Dashboard
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Jets at Dolphins
The Dolphins host the Jets as three-point underdogs on Saturday night. The Jets have an implied total of just 17.75 points; the Dolphins, 20.25.
Miami Dolphins
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Matt Moore
Moore hasn’t started a game since 2011, although he was competent enough to throw for 16 touchdowns and nearly 2,500 passing yards during his 12 starts. He has a great matchup this week against a Jets funnel defense that ranks sixth against the run but last against the pass in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Nevertheless, Moore’s by far the lowest-rated DraftKings QB in the Levitan Player Model. He has the slate’s third-lowest floor projection.
RB – Jay Ajayi
Without center Mike Pouncey (hip) for the last three games, Ajayi has had a rough time, averaging just 12.9 DraftKings points per game. Pouncey is now on Injured Reserve. Ajayi could have a tough time getting back on track this week against a Jets defense that has held runners to a league-low 37.97 percent rush success rate over the past 12 months. It’s true that the Jets did just allow Carlos Hyde to do this to them in Week 14 (per our Trends tool):
Regardless, it’s a tough week to consider Ajayi. He’s too risky for cash games and lacks the upside for guaranteed prize pools with the low team total and Moore as his QB. For Ajayi to hit value in GPPs, he might need to luck his way into a couple of cheap TDs.
RB – Damien Williams
Williams scored a touchdown in Week 14, but he also touched the ball just seven times . . . for eight yards.
WR – Jarvis Landry
Quietly, Landry has seen a big uptick in yards (190) and targets (20) over the past two games. Landry’s ceiling is capped by his low TD equity and inability to stretch the field, but he does have a great matchup. The Jets have officially tapped out on the season, they rank dead last in pass DVOA, and Landry is likely to face some combination of Marcus Williams, Justin Burris, and Buster Skrine, not one of whom has an above-average Pro Football Focus coverage grade. If the production does truly funnel to the passing game, then Landry should see his targets.
WR – DeVante Parker
Parker (back) is still dealing with injury issues, but he did play a full complement of snaps against the Cardinals last week. If Moore throws a couple of nice balls against one of the worst teams pass defenses in the league, then Parker could easily be a prime beneficiary, but it’s tough to trust this offense outside of tournaments in Week 15. The sample is small, but in the few instances in which the Jets have faced WRs comparable to Parker on the basis of salary and point projection, they’ve outperformed expectations with low ownership:
He’s expected to run most of his routes against Darrelle Revis. It’s not polite to speak ill of the dead, but Revis hasn’t been himself this season. His 70.6 PFF coverage grade barely average.
WR – Kenny Stills
He doesn’t rate highly in the Models, but Stills probably has the best chance of any of the Dolphins receivers to get deep. If you roster Stills, hope that Moore can get the ball to him for the big play — and then hope that Stills doesn’t drop the pass. Enjoy. He has a 1.7-point floor projection on DK.
TE – Dion Sims
Sims has two TDs in his last three games, but he doesn’t have more than four targets in any game this season and has cracked 50 yards just once. His floor projection on FD is literally 0.1 points.
New York Jets
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Bryce Petty
Petty has underwhelmed during his limited action this season, as he’s completed fewer than 59 percent of his passes and averaged just six yards per attempt. Petty does have a good matchup this week against a Dolphins defense that has allowed a +4.6 DK Opponent Plus/Minus to QBs over the last 16 games — the third-highest mark in the league. Even at the stone minimum on DK, Petty has too low of a floor for cash games, and he lacks the ceiling for GPPs.
RB – Matt Forte
Forte left early during the Jets’ Week 14 win over the 49ers with a knee injury. He’s officially questionable after a limited practice on Friday and is expected to be a game-time decision. Monitor his status via the FantasyLabs News feed. Even if he’s active in Week 15, it’s possible that No. 2 RB Bilal Powell might get most of the wordk against a Dolphins defense ranked 22nd in rush DVOA.
RB – Bilal Powell
Powell was the team’s featured back after Forte was injured, and he made good use of his opportunity. Powell converted his 29 carries into 145 yards and two TDs against the 49ers, routinely making the first defender miss. Overall, his six tackles avoided were the second-most among all RBs last week, per Pro Football Focus. For what it’s worth, over the past two years Powell has performed very well in games in which he’s had 10-plus rush attempts. Per RotoViz:
Unfortunately, Powell has been priced up to $5600 DK and $6200 FD and doesn’t rate highly in any of our Models. He’s in consideration for tournaments, but a lot of his potential value has been negated by the price escalation.
WR – Brandon Marshall
Marshall has underperformed this year relative to his target share and red zone involvement. He’s been bad with Ryan Fitzpatrick — and he’s been even worse without him:
With Petty starting, Marshall is inordinately risky even as a GPP play.
WR – Robby Anderson
Evidently, no one told Petty that Anderson is the team’s No. 3 WR. All he seems to know is that they had success together in the preseason. Petty has peppered Anderson with an averaged of 11.5 targets over the past two games. Anderson’s price is still reasonable at $4700 on FD, where he has a 92 percent Bargain Rating. Anyone in this Jets offense is far from safe, but Anderson has reached his salary-based expectations on FD in seven of his last eight games.
WR – Quincy Enunwa
Enunwa has clearly taken a backseat to preseason Petty’s pet preseason GOAT. He has four receptions for 39 yards over the last two games.
TE – Austin Seferian-Jenkins
We don’t have a TE from the Jets listed in our Models and that’s not by accident. Actually, we do. That was a joke. ASJ’s in the Models. He has a floor projection of zero points. And that’s not a joke.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
