The Week 15 NFL Dashboard
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Eagles at Ravens
It’s the battle of the birds as the Ravens host the Eagles as 5.5-point favorites this Sunday. The Ravens are currently implied to score 23.5 points; the Eagles, 18 points — the sixth-lowest total of the week. Keep an eye on the winds, which are currently forecast to be at 13 miles per hour.
Philadelphia Eagles
Writer: Kelly McCann
QB – Carson Wentz
Wentz has attempted 187 passes in his last four games and at least 43 passes in five of his last seven. He’s now sixth in the NFL with 498 attempts this season. The Ravens are seventh against the pass in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) but were torched by Tom Brady for 406 yards and three touchdowns last week. Obviously Wentz is no Brady but cornerback Jimmy Smith (ankle) — an integral part of the pass defense — was carted off the field last week and seems unlikely to play this week. Wentz would be a brave dart in guaranteed prize pools if Smith is sidelined. Per our Trends tool, Wentz has produced a +3.90 Plus/Minus while averaging 18.28 DraftKings points per game over his past four games.
RB – Ryan Mathews
With Wendell Smallwood and Darren Sproles expected to carry the load last week, Mathews carried 15 times for 60 yards. In other words, it was typical 2016 Eagles RB usage. Smallwood is now out with a season-ending sprained MCL, and Sproles was knocked out last week on a cheap shot by Deshazor Everett. Sproles (concussion) seems unlikely to play this weekend. Someone will have to carry the Eagles load this week, and it seems safe to assume that person will be Mathews — but you never really know with the Eagles.
On defense, Baltimore is No. 1 in rush DVOA, allowing the fewest rushing yards (878) and fantasy points per game to RBs (13.5) this season (per Pro Football Reference).
RB – Kenjon Barner
Barner has nine total carries in the Eagles’ last 10 games. He and recent call-up Byron Marshall are expected to fill the ‘Sproles Role,’ in much the same way that Val Kilmer and George Clooney filled Michael Keaton’s Batman role in the ’90s.
WR – Jordan Matthews
Matthews has been targeted 10 or more times in five of his last seven games. Importantly, his injured ankle held up well last week, as he played on 76 of the Eagles’ 78 offensive snaps. Matthews is currently a top-five rated WR in the Levitan Player Model for DK, where he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position. With a FantasyLabs projected ownership of zero to one percent in the Millionaire Maker and a top-15 ceiling projection, Matthews is a fine play in large field GPPs.
Matthew (ankle) is officially questionable but expected to play after practicing in full on Thursday and Friday.
WR – Dorial Green-Beckham
DGB sat out Week 14 with an oblique injury but is practicing and expected to play in Week 15. Prior to sitting out, Green-Beckham had been targeted 28 times in three games, averaging 12.5 DK points per game during that stretch. A freakish athlete who should be a red-zone monster but has scored only twice this season, Green-Beckham is an extremely volatile GPP dart.
DGB (abdomen) is questionable but expected to play.
WR – Nelson Agholor
Agholor played 68 of the Eagles’ 78 offensive snaps last week but was targeted just four times. He has not had more than four catches, 42 receiving yards, or a TD since Week 1.
TE – Zach Ertz
Per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report, Ertz leads the Eagles with a 24.19 percent target share over the last four games. Ertz has been targeted at least 11 times in three of those four games and has made an extraordinary 19 receptions in his last two. The Ravens are third in pass DVOA against TEs, but Ertz’s recent volume is too good to ignore. Ertz is especially enticing on FanDuel, where he has a 93 percent Bargain Rating this week.
Baltimore Ravens
Writer: John Proctor
QB – Joe Flacco
Flacco has turned in two straight 300-yard passing games, both with multiple touchdown passes. Prior to these outings, Flacco had only two 300-yard passing games in the first 11 weeks. Much of Flacco’s surge in production is attributable to the recent strong play of the offensive line, which now ranks sixth in adjusted sack rate, per Football Outsiders.
Flacco faces an Eagles defense that has been Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde at home and on the road. At home the Eagles have allowed only five total TD passes, but on the road they have allowed multiple TDs in all but one of their games. They’re also allowing 7.7 yards per attempt on the road but only 6.7 Y/A at home. The Eagles’ strength is their pass rush, as they rank eighth in FO’s adjusted sack rate. Luckily for Flacco, his strong offensive line should allow him time to pick on Philadelphia’s weak cornerbacks. Flacco’s currently the No. 6 QB in the Levitan Model.
RB – Kenneth Dixon
Dixon was the lead back in Week 14, playing 60 percent of the snaps and seeing 19 touches. However, Dixon’s 11 targets came in a game in which the Ravens trailed for a majority of the time, and backfield mate Terrance West is still expected to start in Week 15. It’s possible that Dixon’s usage was a product of game flow, but it is still very encouraging for his outlook.
The Ravens are facing a defense that’s fifth overall in DVOA but ranks 12th in rush DVOA and 21st in pass DVOA against RBs. As a home favorite, Dixon has a very attractive price point on DK, where he rates as the No. 7 RB in the Levitan Model. It is notable, though, that he has a floor projection of just 4.1 DK points.
RB – Terrance West
West saw only two carries and 20 percent of the snaps last week as the Ravens trailed for the majority of the game against the Patriots. West seems to be an afterthought when the Ravens are playing from behind. However, in Week 12 and 13, West saw at least 10 carries in both games. He was also the preferred goal line option in Week 12, as both of his touchdowns came inside the 10.
It’s more than possible that as the expected starter West could see the majority of the backfield work if the Ravens play most of the game with a lead.
WR – Steve Smith
Smith has only 20 targets over the Ravens last three games, seeing only six targets last week, even as Flacco attempted 52 passes. The Ravens offense is spreading the ball around, as Flacco targeted 11 different pass catchers in Week 14. If this wide distribution of targets continues, Smith will be an unreliable fantasy option.
He is, though, in an attractive spot this week, as he should run the majority of his routes at Leodis McKelvin, per the FantasyLabs Matchups tool. McKelvin ranks as Pro Football Focus’ 76th cornerback in coverage. With this matchup, Smith has six DK Pro Trends and a ceiling projection of over 25 DK points.
WR – Mike Wallace
Eagles CB Nolan Carroll has been even worse than McKelvin. He ranks as PFF’s 107th-graded CB in coverage. Wallace is expected to run the majority of his routes against Carroll. Unfortunately, like Smith, Wallace is inconsistently targeted, although he has 15 targets over the last two weeks and 29 over the last month.
WR – Breshad Perriman
Perriman has fewer than five targets in six straight games. As the fourth option in this passing offense, he’s a risky tournament play at best.
TE – Dennis Pitta
Pitta came crashing back to earth in Week 14. He caught 4-of-5 targets for 18 receiving yards. This week, Pitta faces an Eagles defense that ranks second against TEs in pass DVOA. He is not a recommended option in this spot.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
