The Week 15 NFL Dashboard
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Buccaneers at Cowboys
The Buccaneers take on the Cowboys this week in a game with a Vegas over/under of 46.5 points. Dallas is a seven-point home favorite with an implied team total of 26.75 points. Tampa Bay has an implied total of 19.75.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Writer: Tyler Buecher
QB – Jameis Winston
Winston’s play has deteriorated over the last few games, with each games yielding fewer fantasy points than the one before it. In fact, he’s coming off the first game of his career without a TD. He could be in for a bounceback game this week against a Cowboys defense that hasn’t been effective stopping QBs. Dallas ranks bottom-10 against the pass in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) and has allowed a +1.6 DraftKings Opponent Plus/Minus to QBs over the last year. Dallas has allowed some big fantasy outings, with both Kirk Cousins and Ben Roethlisberger eclipsing the 30-point mark. Winston has a FantasyLabs projected ownership of just two to four percent.
RB – Doug Martin
Martin has scored in three of his last five games since returning from injury, commanding 64 percent of the snaps and 71.3 percent of the RB touches over that span. He has a difficult matchup against a Dallas defense that’s held every RB it’s faced other than Le’Veon Bell under 15 FanDuel points. The Cowboys are allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points and fifth-fewest rushing TDs to their opponents. Martin has a dangerous 4.2-point floor projection, making him tough to trust at $6,500 FD.
RB – Charles Sims and Jacquizz Rodgers
Last week Sims returned to action for the first time since Week 4. He tallied seven touches on 15 snaps, but this matchup on the ground isn’t worth pursuing heavily. Rodgers played on just seven snaps and had two carries for zero yards. He has faded to irrelevancy.
WR – Mike Evans
After starting the season with 11 or more targets in seven of his first eight games, Evans has seen 11-plus in just two of his last five. He draws a great matchup against a Dallas secondary that’s giving up the second-most receptions and ninth-most receiving touchdowns to WRs and ranks 26th in pass DVOA against WR1s.
Per our Matchups tool, Evans will likely run most of his routes against cornerback Brandon Carr, who is allowing 0.28 fantasy points per route and ranks 49th among Pro Football Focus’ cover CBs. Evans leads all receivers this week in projected ceiling (33.0 FD points) and floor (9.3).
WR – Adam Humphries
Humphries (concussion) was held out of last week’s game, but he’s been almost irrelevant this season anyway. He has just three games with double-digit DK points and has cleared 50 receiving yards just once since Week 3. One positive for him is that slot receivers have fared well against Dallas, with Steve Smith (19.9 DK points), Jordan Matthews (18.0), and Jeremy Kerley (17.8) having standout games. At the same time, Humphries might not be as talented as even Kerley. He’s cleared the league’s concussion protocol and should play in Week 15.
WR – Russell Shepard and Freddie Martino
Neither Shepard nor Martino have had more than one game with four-plus targets this season.
TE – Cameron Brate
Brate has been fantastic this season, often easily surpassing his salary-based expectations:
He draws a great matchup against a Cowboys squad that has struggled defending TEs. Dallas is allowing the second-most receptions, fifth-most receiving yards, and seventh-most DK points to TEs, making Brate a terrific play this week at $3,800 DK, given his 19.0-point ceiling. He has a FantasyLabs projected ownership of just two to four percent.
Dallas Cowboys
Writer: Kelly McCann
QB – Dak Prescott
Sound the alarm! After scoring at least 20.5 DK points per game for six straight games, Prescott has now totaled 21 DK points in the past two games combined. That said, Prescott was on the road playing against the defenses ranked second and fifth against the pass in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Up next is a Bucs defense ranked sixth in pass DVOA. Per our Trends tool, the Bucs have held opposing QBs to a -3.18 Plus/Minus over the past four weeks. Fortunately, Prescott is playing at home, where he has averaged 24.28 DK points per game with a whopping +8.21 Plus/Minus and average ownership of just 1.4 percent in his last four such games. With a FantasyLabs projected ownership of two to four percent in the Millionaire Maker, Prescott is an excellent contrarian play at QB.
RB – Ezekiel Elliott
Elliott leads the league in rushing attempts (287) and rushing yards (1,392) and is second to only LeGarrette Blount with 12 rushing touchdowns. Over his past six games, Zeke has averaged 21.83 FD points per game and scored fewer than 18.5 FD points in just two contests. The Buccaneers have faced four RBs with a salary of at least $8,000 FD this season, allowing an average of 16.03 FD points per game and a+3.03 Plus/Minus to those backs. Of that group, only Devonta Freeman was held to fewer than 15.8 FD points. Elliott is currently the No. 1 RB in the CSURAM88 Player Model for FD, where he has a projected ownership of nine to 12 percent in the Sunday Million. Not chalky enough to fade, Elliott should be deployed with great confidence in all formats.
RB – Alfred Morris
Is this the real life? Is this just fantasy? Morris has accumulated a total of four rushes in the Cowboys’ past four games. As Freddie Mercury sang, “No, no, no, no, no, no, no! Oh, mama mia, mama mia.”
WR – Dez Bryant
The bad news: Bryant caught one ball for 10 yards and a fumble last week. The good news: He was targeted nine times and has 39 targets in the Cowboys’ last five games. According to Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report, Bryant leads the Cowboys with a 26.32 percent target share the last four games. We’re expecting Dez to run most of his routes against Vernon Hargreaves III, who has a PFF coverage grade of 56.6. If he’s targeted in that matchup, Dez could have a big game. Having a projected ownership of no more than four percent on both sites, Bryant is an ideal stacking partner to pair with Prescott in large field GPPs.
Bryant (back) is questionable but expected to play.
WR – Cole Beasley
Beasley has not had more than 59 yards receiving for nine straight weeks, and Tampa Bay has held WRs to a -1.12 Plus/Minus over the past four weeks. Only one of the 14 WRs they have faced during that stretch has scored more than 12.9 DK points. Beasley is a risky play with limited upside.
WR – Terrance Williams
T-Will had his outlier T-Will game last week, so you should be safe to keep him benched until 2017. Prior to last week’s outburst of 18.6 DK points, Williams had been targeted 11 times in five games and. “Beelzebub has a devil put aside for me, for me, for me.”
TE – Jason Witten
Witten has been targeted 35 times in the Cowboys’ last six games but has scored no more than 8.9 FD points in five straight games. Plus, the Buccaneers rank fifth in pass DVOA against TEs. Nevertheless, Witten is a top-three TE in the Bales, CSURAM88, and Sports Geek Models for FD, where he has an 85 percent Bargain Rating.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
