The Week 15 NFL Dashboard
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Browns at Bills
The Browns head to Buffalo to take on the Bills as 10.5-point road dogs. This game has a low over/under of only 41.5 total points. The Browns’ 15.5-point implied team total is the lowest of the main slate, while the Bills have a strong implied total of 26 points.
Cleveland Browns
Writer: John Proctor
QB – Robert Griffin III
It was no surprise that Griffin flopped in his second start for the Browns. He has completed less than 50 percent of his passes in both of his starts for Cleveland, taking three sacks and throwing an interception in each game.
This week he faces a Buffalo defense that ranks fifth in Football Outsiders’ adjusted sack rate with 33 sacks this season. While the Bills have struggled at times, they still rank 19th in passing defense per FO’s Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). There is little reason to expect RG3 to have success against the Bills’ pass rush. He has the lowest FanDuel median projection for main slate quarterbacks.
RB – Isaiah Crowell
Last week Crow had his first 100-yard rushing game since Week 4. He still carried the ball just 10 times in the game, and he also saw only two targets. He has only four total targets in Griffin’s starts.
The Bills are 29th in rush DVOA and allowing the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing RBs. Even in what looks to be a good matchup, Crowell is difficult to trust as a big road dog on account of his small workload.
RB – Duke Johnson Jr.
With Griffin at the helm, Duke saw four carries and two targets in Week 14. For a RB who’s supposedly an asset in the passing game, he’s seeing remarkably little work when the Browns actually need to pass the ball.
WR – Terrelle Pryor
After seeing seven targets from Griffin in Week 1, Pryor saw only three targets in Week 14. He caught one of those targets for three yards. However, (per our Matchups tool) Pryor does have a very winnable matchup against Ronald Darby, who grades as Pro Football Focus’ 64th overall cornerback in coverage this season. It is impossible to project stability with Griffin under center, but Pryor should have some opportunities to get behind Darby.
WR – Corey Coleman
Coleman was the most targeted player on the Browns in Week 14, seeing 11 targets on Griffin’s 28 attempts. However, Coleman caught only three of his targets for 26 yards. With this kind of target volume, Coleman is definitely in play. However, his lack of efficiency makes him difficult to trust.
Like Pryor, Coleman has a very winnable matchup this week. He’s expected to run most of his routes on the outside against Stephon Gilmore, who ranks as PFF’s 71st CB in coverage this season. In general, the Bills have struggled to defend WRs on the outside with Gilmore and Darby. If Coleman’s usage this week is similar to last week’s, he’ll likely have a big game. But, with RG3 quarterbacking, our Coleman has a floor projection of less than three DK points.
WR – Andrew Hawkins
Baby Hawk continues to see little usage, with only one target in Week 14.
TE – Gary Barnidge
Barnidge saw more usage in Week 14 with Griffin than he did in Week 1, with five targets in this game. However, this entire passing game is difficult to rely on with Griffin playing so poorly. With the Browns’ low team total, Barnidge lacks reliable red-zone upside.
Buffalo Bills
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Tyrod Taylor
Deciding how to handle double-digit spreads is tricky, especially at QB, because a blowout could result in run-heavy play calling. Supported by his strong rushing production, Taylor has averaged 37.86 yards and 0.63 TDs on the ground in his last eight games. The matchup couldn’t be any better, as he faces a winless Browns team ranked 31st and 32nd in pass and rush DVOAs. Taylor is the highest-rated DK QB in the Levitan Player Model, as he possesses the position’s highest floor projection and third-highest Projected Plus/Minus as well as a 92 percent Bargain Rating. He’s likely to be popular and safe in cash games, but his tournament upside might be limited due to the large spread.
RB – LeSean McCoy
Per Player Profiler, McCoy is first in the NFL in runs of 15-plus yards this season with 1.2 per game. Per our Trends tool, home favored RBs with double-digit spreads typically perform above expectation:
On top of that, McCoy has the highest Opponent Plus/Minus on the slate. The Bills are likely to milk a lead for most of this game, and the massive volume McCoy sees regularly makes him playable in all formats. He’s the No. 5 FanDuel RB in our Cash Model with a position-leading 15 Pro Trends and 99 percent Bargain Rating. He has a chalky 17-20 percent ownership projection.
RB – Mike Gillislee and Reggie Bush
When McCoy is healthy, Gillislee’s usage is inconsistent and Bush hardly ever sees the field. With seven TDs in 12 games, Gillislee has some tournament appeal as a contrarian play, but he could easily finish the game with 15 yards and three carries on 10 snaps,
WR – Sammy Watkins
Since returning three games ago, Watkins’ snap rate has gone from 45.5 percent to 68.1 percent to 94.2 percent last week. This week Watkins has a great matchup against a Browns’ defense that ranks as the fourth-worst unit in pass DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers. He’s in play in all formats priced at $6100 FD with a 96 percent Bargain Rating and has a +3.75 Projected Plus/Minus.
Watkins (foot) is questionable but fully expected to play.
WR – Robert Woods
Woods secured just one of three targets last week for 29 yards. He again ‘lived up’ to his horrific Watkins/non-Watkins splits:
Still, this weekend at least Woods is expected to run most of his routes against in the slot against Tramon Williams, who has an awful PFF coverage grade of 46.4. If he gets the targets, Woods might be able to churn that milk into butter.
WR – Marquise Goodwin, Justin Hunter, and Brandon Tate
On an offense that moves the ball primarily on the ground, these guys are basically worth one sentence.
TE – Charles Clay
Clay got in the end zone last week and saw six targets. The Browns are dead last in the league in pass DVOA against TEs. At zero to one percent ownership, Clay could be a viable (even if tilting) punt in tournaments this week near stone minimum on both sites.
Clay (knee) is questionable but fully expected to play.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
