The Week 15 NFL Dashboard
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49ers at Falcons
This game boasts the highest Vegas total of the week at 51.5 points. The Falcons are 14-point favorites implied for a slate-high 32.75 points. The 1-12 49ers are currently implied for 18.75 points on the road.
San Francisco 49ers
Writer: Bryan Mears
QB – Colin Kaepernick
Given the Vegas data for this game, you might expect that all of the fantasy plays are on the Atlanta side. Not so fast: Kaep is currently the No. 2 and No. 3 QB in the DraftKings and FanDuel Bales Model, and he boasts top-three floor projections on both sites. Kaep’s legs make him fairly game-flow independent: He owns a whopping 20.35 percent of the 49ers’ rushes over the past month, and that includes a game in which he was benched because of his inability to grip the football in snow. Just three games ago, on the road against Miami, he ran 10 times for 113 yards. He also threw for 296 yards and three touchdowns, making him just four yards shy of hitting both the throwing and rushing DK bonuses. He has an excellent matchup this week against an Atlanta defense that ranks 27th, 23rd, and 28th in overall, pass, and rush Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). He should be chalky in cash games, although he’ll likely split ownership with fellow runner Tyrod Taylor, who is $100 cheaper on DK and $100 more expensive on FD.
RB – Carlos Hyde
Last week, Hyde was the No. 1 RB in the Bales Model for DK, mostly because he was one of the few RBs in the league cheaper there than on FD: He had an 82 percent Bargain Rating and low $4,900 price tag. This week, he’s rejoined the herd: He’s $5,900 DK and owns a 10 percent Bargain Rating. Because of the price hike, Hyde is more difficult to play this week, even after a massive 30-point DK outing against the Jets. However, he’s definitely worth tournament exposure: He owns a position-high +4.0 DK Opponent Plus/Minus and faces the fifth-worst run defense in the league. Hyde struggled in his two high-total games this year, scoring only 1.4 and 7.2 DK points as 14- and 12-point dogs against the Cardinals and Panthers. However, both of those teams boast top-10 rush defenses. Hyde certainly has downside given his game-flow concerns, but he also has massive upside.
RB – Shaun Draughn
The Falcons are 27th in pass DVOA against RBs, and Draughn owns 10.34 percent of the team’s targets over the past month (per the Market Share Report). It’s a thin play, but the Falcons could give up value to both RBs: Doug Martin and Charles Sims, for example, both exceeded salary-based expectations against them earlier this year.
WR – Jeremy Kerley
Kerley is technically the ‘WR1’ in this offense in terms of volume — he owns 17.24 percent of the team’s targets over the past month and got eight targets last week — but his weekly target totals and efficiency numbers are volatile. Per the Matchups tool, Kerley is likely to run most of his routes in the slot against Falcons slot cornerback Brian Poole, who has a league-average 76.8 Pro Football Focus coverage grade. This probably goes without saying, but Kerley is not league average. He’s only $3,400 DK, but all of the 49ers pass-catchers are projected for zero to one percent ownership for a reason.
WR – Quinton Patton
Patton led the team with 49 offensive snaps last week, but he owns only 10.34 percent of the 49ers’ targets over the last four weeks. Even with Torrey Smith (concussion) out for Week 15 and Vance McDonald on the Injured Reserve, Patton has a floor projection of only 2.3 DK points.
TE – Garrett Celek
Of the two 49ers TEs — Blake Bell being the other option — Celek has the higher median projection on both sites. That said, neither are projected for even seven fantasy points, and Kaepernick throws to his TEs on only 4.6 percent of his passes — the third-lowest mark among QBs this week.
Atlanta Falcons
Writer: Tyler Buecher
QB – Matt Ryan
Missing his top receiving options last week (Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu), Ryan was able to put up 21.5 FanDuel points and throw for three touchdowns. Ryan should have an easy time against San Francisco, which is allowing the third-most passing touchdowns and fifth-most fantasy points to opposing QBs. Ryan has 30 passing TDs on the season and has thrown multiple TDs in nine of 13 games. The 49ers are giving up the most points on the road this season to opposing offenses (34.7) and a +2.2 FD Opponent Plus/Minus to passers. QBs priced similarly on FD have fared well against San Francisco this season. Per our Trends tool:
RB – Devonta Freeman
A massive home favorite, Freeman has a chance to go off against a defense that has been burned by running backs all season. Last week’s eight-touch performance may have some people hesitant, but this spot is ideal. San Francisco is giving up the most rushing touchdowns, rushing yards, and DraftKings points to RBs. The 49ers rank dead last in most red-zone trips allowed and 31st against the run in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). He has a 29.9-point ceiling projection on DK in our Player Models.
RB – Tevin Coleman
Even with Freeman’s limited touches last week, Coleman accumulated just 10 touches himself. He did, though, score two TDs and turn in quite the fantasy performance. Coleman has scored nine TDs in ten games played this season. He’s a very affordable $6,500 FD ($1,200 less than Freeman), and he has 10 Pro Trends and a 21.1-point ceiling in his favor.
WR – Julio Jones
Julio (toe) has been ruled out for Week 15.
WR – Mohamed Sanu
Sanu (groin) missed last week’s game but is no longer on the injury report and fully expected to play this week. Sanu’s been a highly volatile player, accruing five or more targets just three times in his last six games. Slot defender Jimmie Ward has struggled this season, allowing 0.37 fantasy points per route defended while being targeted on 20 percent of his routes in coverage. Our models have Sanu with a 23-point DK ceiling and a FantasyLabs ownership projection of zero to one percent.
WR – Taylor Gabriel
Gabriel’s been a master of producing on very little volume. He hasn’t accrued more than six targets in a game this season, yet he has double-digit fantasy outings in five of his last six games, averaging 16.97 DK points and scoring six TDs in that span. With all of that production, his price has gone up $2,600 DK since Week 10. CB Tramaine Brock will have the unenviable task of trying to keep up with Gabriel. Brock is moderately athletic, but he hasn’t been particularly effective in coverage, ranking as PFF’s No. 49 CB. Gabriel is a fantasy option in guaranteed prize pools with Julio out.
WR – Aldrick Robinson
A Shanahan pet, the OG A-Rob is is a speedster who’s slotting into Julio’s spot. Over the last two weeks he has nine total targets, which he’s turned into 8.5 DK and 7.25 FD points per game. The sample is small, but in his five career games with at least four targets, A-Rob’s done well. Per RotoViz:
A-Rob draws a great matchup against a 49ers secondary that’s giving up the second-most receiving touchdowns and sixth-most fantasy points to opposing WRs. Seven receivers have scored 20-plus DK points on them this season. A-Rob is expected to run most of his routes against Rashard Robinson, PFF’s 73rd-ranked CB. At $3,400 DK and $4,500 FD, A-Rob is an intriguing punt play.
TE – Austin Hooper
Hooper has scored just once since Jacob Tamme‘s season-ending injury, failing to capitalize on a massive opportunity. He has a surprisingly difficult matchup this week, as the 49ers allow the 13th-fewest DK points to opposing TEs and have given up just one TD since Week 3. Hooper has averaged 3.3 targets since Week 8, failing to surpass 50 receiving yards in a single contest. He has a 0.5-point floor on DK.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
