Our NFL product at FantasyLabs is powered by our Models, which feature projections from Sean Koerner. He’s been FantasyPros’ most accurate in-season ranker in three of the past four seasons, which makes our Models a must-have for the serious DFS player.
One of the best ways to incorporate his projections is by looking at each player’s Projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Projected Plus/Minus is a proprietary metric that measures projected points vs. expected points. The higher the number, the better that player is expected to perform relative to his price tag.
If you wind up rostering players who finish the week with a good Plus/Minus, there’s a good chance you’re going to find yourself at the top of the leaderboards.
Here are six players who are popping as values in our NFL Models for Week 15.
Quarterback
Kyler Murray ($5,600 on DraftKings) vs. Cleveland Browns
Murray has struggled recently, posting a negative Plus/Minus in each of his past two games on DraftKings, but there’s a lot to like with him this week vs. the Browns. For starters, he’s way underpriced on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 96%. That’s as cheap as Murray has been since Week 2 when he faced the Baltimore Ravens on the road.
His salary is particularly appealing when you factor in his rushing ability. Murray has averaged 34.5 rushing yards per game, and QBs with similar rushing averages have historically posted a Plus/Minus of +2.75 with a comparable price tag (per the Trends tool).
He a slight underdog vs. the Browns — which obviously isn’t ideal — but he does benefit from getting to play at home. Home underdogs of three points or less have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.40 with a comparable salary.
Running Back
Boston Scott ($3,000 on DraftKings) @ Washington Redskins
Jordan Howard will miss his fifth straight game for the Eagles, which opens up more opportunities for the rest of the roster. Miles Sanders has operated as the lead back for most of that period, but his production remains inconsistent: He’s averaged 4.16 yards per rush and 5.57 yards per reception while scoring just one touchdown. He was forced to miss large stretches of their last game vs. the Giants, which ultimately opened the door for Scott, who was far more effective on the ground. He racked up 59 yards on just 10 carries and also caught all six of his targets for 69 receiving yards. It seems likely that he has earned a larger share of the work moving forward.
That could pay off this week vs. the Redskins, particularly at a minimum salary. The Eagles are favored by 5.5 points on the road, and we currently have him projected for more than 10 touches in that matchup. He’s also projected for less than five percent ownership on DraftKings, which makes him an appealing flyer for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Patrick Laird ($5,500 on FanDuel) @ New York Giants
Laird has garnered a cult-like following from fantasy analysts on Twitter, but he’s a legitimately strong value this week. He’s coming off a season-high 15 rushing attempts in his last contest, and he also converted five targets into four catches for 38 yards.
While the increased rushing workload is nice, where Laird really makes his money is in the passing game. He was an excellent receiver in college, posting a 14.9% market share and catching at least 45 passes in each of his final two seasons. That puts him in the 94th percentile at the RB position per Player Profiler.
The Dolphins WR corps will not be as thin as originally expected — DeVante Parker, Albert Wilson, and Allen Hurns are all expected to play — but Laird could still see a larger receiving workload than usual vs. the Giants. The Giants have fared much better vs. the run than vs. the pass this season, so the Dolphins may throw the ball more than usual.
Wide Receiver
Chris Conley ($3,600 on DraftKings) @ Oakland Raiders
There is plenty of value available at the WR position this week. The Jaguars will be without D.J. Chark in an excellent matchup vs. the Raiders, which makes them one of the strongest teams to target. Chark leads the WR corps with a target market share of 21.7%, which opens up plenty of opportunities for the rest of the roster.
Conley is someone who could take advantage of an increased opportunity. He’s averaged 1.29 DraftKings points per target this season, and his price has decreased by -$800 over the past month. He’s seen at least seven targets in six of his first 13 games, and he’s averaged 13.2 DraftKings points per game in those contests.
A.J. Brown ($6,200 on FanDuel) vs. Houston Texans
Brown stands out as an elite option on FanDuel, where his $6,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past seven games, and he’s displayed plenty of upside over that time frame. He exploded for 153 yards and two TDs vs. the Raiders in his last contest just two weeks after posting 135 yards and one TD vs. the Jaguars.
Brown has taken off since Ryan Tannehill has taken over as the starting QB, which is not surprising considering just how dominant Tannehill has been. He looks nothing like the guy who struggled in Miami, leading the league in yards per attempt, yards per completion, and QB Rating. If he had played this way from the start of the season, we would be talking about him as a legit dark horse MVP candidate.
Tight End
Darren Waller ($6,200 on FanDuel) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
There is plenty of value available in Week 15, so paying up at TE shouldn’t be a problem. Waller is one of the priciest options at the position, but he still stands out as the best pure value on both FanDuel and DraftKings. His salary has decreased from its peak across the industry, but his role his increased following the injury to Hunter Renfroe. He’s logged at least six catches in back-to-back games, and he’s averaged 86 yards in those contests.
He has a nice matchup this week vs. the Jaguars, who have been a dumpster fire on defense. They’ve allowed at least 28 points in four straight games, and they’ve allowed at least 42 points in two of them. Waller leads all TEs with 10 Pro Trends on FanDuel, and his eight Pro Trends ranks second on DraftKings.
