The Five Under Five focuses on players projected to have less than five percent ownership in large-field guaranteed prize pools on DraftKings and FanDuel. For more of our weekly football content, visit the NFL homepage.
QB: Blake Bortles
Projected Ownership: 2-4 percent DraftKings and FanDuel
Bortles has had a lot working against his fantasy production: Allen Robinson is out for the year, Allen Hurns has been out for the past month, and the Jags run the ball more frequently than any team in the NFL. And yet, Bortles is a top-10 fantasy QB since the Week 8 bye and currently ranks seventh with in overall fantasy points during that span. In his past two weeks, Bortles has avoided turnovers and thrown for two touchdowns in both outings. The Jaguars host the Houston Texans, who have yielded the second most DraftKings PPG to quarterbacks in 2017. Bortles should be in positive game script this week, but even when leading, the Jaguars have shown a mild willingness to throw the ball in the past five weeks. Bortles has thrown the ball on 48 percent of plays while leading, good for 160 total attempts, the most in the league. Volume isn’t a direct path to efficiency, but it seems that previous issues with rostering Bortles may be fading away.
RB: Jay Ajayi
Projected Ownership: 2-4 percent DraftKings and FanDuel
There’s no telling how the Eagles will react to losing Carson Wentz for the year, but it could be a good week to lean on Ajayi. Coming into this week, the Eagles actually ran the ball at the league’s seventh-highest rate (54 percent of plays), despite having the league’s second-most efficient pass offense. Ajayi’s workload has been trending in the right direction, just in time. In the past two weeks, he has seen both his snap and carry counts rise to season highs, earning 17 total opportunities against the Rams on 47 percent of snaps. Ajayi has graded out as the 10th-most effective back in the league by Pro Football Focus, and since joining the Eagles, Ajayi has gained 7 yards per carry, second to only Alvin Kamara. If Doug Pederson and the Eagles are interested in easing Nick Foles into his new role, they should be able to run the ball comfortably against the Giants, who have allowed the sixth most DraftKings PPG to running backs on the season.
RB: Latavius Murray
Projected Ownership: 0-1 percent DraftKings and FanDuel
The Minnesota backfield has been more of a minefield this year, but this weekend as an 11-point home favorites against a reeling Bengals defense, we may know where to step. Since the departure of Dalvin Cook, Latavius Murray has had a borderline elite workload on the ground. He’s earned 129 carries, gaining 4 yards per rush and scoring five times. That’s enough to make him a top-10 fantasy running back in standard scoring during that timespan. The Vikings are coming off a loss in which Murray was rendered useless by the Panthers’ fifth-ranked rush defense. This week, however, Murray will face a Bengals team that has allowed the NFL’s second-most rush yards and the most DraftKings points to RBs in that span. Murray has been the bellcow in the past seven Vikings wins, never getting fewer than 15 carries, and earning multiple red zone touches in all of those games. If we expect the Vikings to win, we should expect Murray to eat. He currently owns the highest player rating in our FanDuel models.
WR: Brandon LaFell
Projected Ownership: 0-1 percent DraftKings and FanDuel
Since the Week 6 bye, LaFell has 29 total touches, only four fewer than A.J. Green. While Green is obviously the greater talent, LaFell has been a useful fantasy asset, averaging 8.25 DraftKings PPG on the season. That may not seem like much, but given his near-minimum salary ($3,400) on DraftKings this week, it would be a solid return on value. What’s appealing about LaFell is the struggle Green will have with Xavier Rhodes. The Vikings CB has once again earned status as an elite shutdown corner. LaFell moves around the field quite a bit, but will likely draw Trey Waynes for more than 40 percent of snaps. Waynes allows the most fantasy points per route among the Minnesota cornerbacks. LaFell has a 97 percent bargain rating in our DraftKings models this week.
TE: Ben Watson
Projected Ownership: 2-4 percent DraftKings and 0-1 FanDuel
Watson is 36 years-old, a fact that makes him the oldest player on the Ravens and second-oldest tight end in the league behind Antonio Gates. While Watson shouldn’t be someone we rush to roster any week, there is some merit to playing the veteran against the Browns this week. In Week 2, Watson had eight receptions for 91 yards. He turned in 17.1 DraftKings points that week. Since then, the Browns have maintained a strong commitment to the trend, yielding an average of 16.58 DraftKings points per game on the season. On the year, Watson has been quiet, and seen a recent reduction in workload, but he’s third on the Ravens in total targets and has as many receiving touchdowns on the year as Jeremy Maclin and Mike Wallace. If you are looking to punt the position, Watson may be your man.
