Week 14 presents us with multiple spots in which a top cornerback projects to shadow the opposing top receiver. Let’s break down this week’s notable WR/CB matchups using our NFL Matchups tool as a guide.
The Studs
Julio Jones vs. Trumaine Johnson
We should expect Johnson to shadow Julio on the outside this weekend. While this is not necessarily a downgrade, it does mean that Julio won’t see much of E.J. Gaines, who is the cornerback to target on this defense. This results in a big upgrade for both Mohamed Sanu and Taylor Gabriel when they line up opposite Julio. For reference, Johnson is Pro Football Focus’ 31st-ranked cornerback in coverage and Gaines is 118th.
There is risk for Julio, however, as offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan likes to exploit defensive weaknesses. With Julio banged up and facing the Rams’ top cornerback, he could see less volume than normal. The Falcons are currently six-point favorites and may not need a big game from Julio to win. That said, if Julio sees legitimate volume against Johnson, we should still expect Jones to win this matchup. Assuming he’s able to go, Julio is the fourth-highest rated receiver in Adam Levitan’s FanDuel Player Model.
Note: Jones did not practice Monday through Wednesday this week but is expected to see limited work on Thursday. He should be considered questionable for this matchup against the Rams.
Antonio Brown vs. Bills Secondary
Since Brown runs the majority of his routes on the outside, he should spend most of his day against Stephon Gilmore and Ronald Darby. Gilmore and Darby have been excellent in coverage in the past but have struggled for the majority of 2016. Both rank outside of PFF’s top-65 coverage cornerbacks this season. This duo allowed touchdowns to both Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper in Week 13.
Brown has seen only 13 targets over his last two games, as the Steelers have smashed both the Colts and the Giants. Fortunately for Brown, Vegas projects a closer game in this spot: The Steelers are currently two-point favorites. In the Steelers’ three most recent losses, Brown saw 40 targets and had 345 receiving yards over that span; he could have a big day if this game stays close. Brown is tied for the highest median projection in our DraftKings Player Models.
Mike Evans vs. Delvin Breaux
Last weekend, Evans was nearly blanked by Casey Hayward and saw only six targets on the day. He managed to bring in only three of those targets for 38 yards. He did catch a two-point conversion to help his day and now has a touchdown or two-point conversion catch in every game but three this season.
Evans is PFF’s top-ranked receiver this season but struggled against the fifth-ranked coverage CB in Hayward. That said, Evans will face a much more beatable opponent this week in Breaux. Since returning from his injury, Breaux has allowed 0.32 fantasy points per route against and owns a poor PFF coverage grade of 41.6. Breaux is a talented player and has flashed shutdown ability at times, but he just isn’t playing well right now. Expect a bounce-back game from Evans. He’s tied with Brown for the highest median projection in our DK Player Models.
Odell Beckham Jr. vs. Brandon Carr and Anthony Brown
DFS players should hope that Ben McAdoo game plans to match Beckham against Brown. While Carr is not playing at an elite level, he is still PFF’s 27th-ranked CB in coverage. Brown, on the other hand, ranks 65th and is giving up 0.40 fantasy points per route. He has been atrocious as Morris Claiborne’s replacement. If McAdoo does not game plan for this spot, Beckham should run nearly 50 percent of his routes against Carr and 40 percent at Brown. He should still see opportunities to take a slant to the house on Brown.
However, the concern for a receiver facing the Cowboys is game speed. The Cowboys continue to play at the slowest pace in the NFL, taking 29.76 seconds per play, per Football Outsiders. They currently rank second in the NFL in time of possession. While this is a concern, the Vegas total for this game is still 47.5, and the Giants have an implied total at 22.25. This is a ‘must-win game’ for the Giants in terms of playoff implications. Beckham is the highest-rated receiver in Adam Levitan’s DraftKings Player Model, although he has a low nine percent Bargain Rating.
Notable Upgrades
Amari Cooper vs. Not Marcus Peters
The Chiefs benched Phillip Gaines last weekend due to an injury and Julio still picked them apart while lined up away from Marcus Peters. They don’t have a single strong cornerback outside of Peters. Cooper and Crabtree have been difficult to pin down this season, but this matchup should lead to a Cooper week. He projects to run less than 30 percent of his routes at Peters and the rest of his routes against Gaines (or his replacement) and Steven Nelson. Per Scott Barrett of PFF, Gaines and Nelson have allowed 27 catches for 520 yards and two touchdowns on 37 targets in their coverage over their last two games.
TY Hilton vs. Kareem Jackson
Hilton has been on fire this season, averaging six catches for 91 yards per game with five touchdowns on the year. This week, Hilton will avoid the Texans’ stud coverage cornerback, A.J. Bouye, who should spend most of his day covering Donte Moncrief. Hilton will run the majority of his routes against Kareem Jackson in the slot. Jackson will get the nod after the Texans waived struggling slot CB Charles James. Jackson has a poor PFF coverage grade of 63.7. Hilton is averaging nine targets per game over Luck’s last three starts and should get plenty of opportunity to perform in this spot.
Other Notable Upgrades
Steve Smith is facing the Patriots, who have the 25th-ranked pass defense, per Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). They rank 21st against WR1s.
Pierre Garcon should draw Nolan Carroll, who is PFF’s 104th-ranked cornerback in coverage this season.
Doug Baldwin will face Packers slot CB Micah Hyde, who is allowing a high 0.41 fantasy points per route.
Ted Ginn should avoid Casey Hayward, who should shadow Kelvin Benjamin. Ginn will instead run against Craig Mager, who has an awful 41.1 PFF coverage grade to date.
Notable Downgrades
Jordy Nelson vs. Richard Sherman
Because of Nelson’s elite play this year, we can assume that he’ll draw coverage from Sherman this weekend. The Seahawks are without Earl Thomas, and we saw Sherman get dismantled by Mike Evans in Week 12. Sherman is PFF’s 33rd-ranked cornerback in coverage this season. To his credit, however, he is allowing only 0.20 fantasy points per route against. Sherman may not be the same downgrade he was earlier this season with the Seahawks at full strength, but he hurts Nelson’s outlook.
DeVante Parker vs. Patrick Peterson
There is little reason to go into how good Peterson is, but we can note Julio Jones’ line while in Peterson’s coverage. Jones caught four of seven targets for 35 yards. We should not expect Parker to have much success against Peterson this weekend. It is another great opportunity for Jarvis Landry to see more volume in the slot.
