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Quarterbacks
Ben Roethlisberger: $6,300 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel
Big Ben returns home — where he’s a legendary fantasy beast — as a four-point favorite implied to score 23.8 points against the Ravens. Roethlisberger averages a redonkulous 26.21 points per game (PPG) and a +8.08 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and 23.65 PPG and a +6.20 Plus/Minus on FanDuel at home since 2014. While his numbers at home in divisional games haven’t been quite as eye-popping, they are still elite: 23.14 PPG and a +5.10 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and 20.45 PPG with a +3.51 Plus/Minus on FanDuel. Further, some of his best home games in recent years have come when playing Baltimore, against whom he has posted 30.40 DraftKings and 28.40 FanDuel PPG with perfect Consistency. After a concerning slow start to the season, Big Ben has now exceeded his salary-based expectations in five-straight games on DraftKings, during which time he has averaged 298.6 yards and 2.6 touchdowns per game.
Tom Brady: $7,500 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel
Brady — the No. 1 rated Primetime DraftKings quarterback in two of the Three Donkeys Models — has played below expectations on the road in divisional games since 2014. During those 11 games, Brady has failed to meet his salary-based expectations seven times while producing an undesirable 19.19 PPG with a -0.51 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and 18.10 PPG with a -1.89 Plus/Minus on FanDuel. That said, he is Tom f***ing Brady, and he’s playing Miami’s putrid defense. Brady put up 276 yards and three touchdowns last year in Miami.
Running Backs
Le’Veon Bell: $9,100 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel
As always, Bell is a serious market-share monster, logging an 87.4 percent rushing share, a 23.42 percent target share (second on the team), and a team-leading six opportunities inside the 10-yard line the past four weeks. Bell has been targeted a mind-blowing 31 times and hauled in 26 receptions in his past three games. In those three games, Bell has accounted for 468 total yards but scored only one touchdown, so a trip (or three) to the endzone this week seems probable. Le’Veon has been a beast vs. the AFC North, averaging 24.35 PPG with a +4.35 Plus/Minus on DraftKings in 16 games against divisional opponents.
Rex Burkhead: $5,900 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel
Over the course of the past four weeks, Burkhead has led the Patriots with eight opportunities inside the 10-yard line. He has scored five touchdowns, and averaged 16.90 PPG with a +6.28 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and 15.40 PPG with a +7.44 Plus/Minus on FanDuel. During that stretch, Burkhead ranks second on the Patriots with 35.4 percent of rushes and fourth with 11.4 percent of the team’s targets.
Alex Collins: $4,800 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel
The return of Danny Woodhead hasn’t slowed down Collins, who has averaged 17 carries and 3.6 targets per game while scoring four touchdowns over the past three weeks. As a four-point road underdog, a potentially negative game script is concerning for Collins but he makes an intriguing contrarian play.
Wide Receivers
Antonio Brown: $9,800 DraftKings, $9,100 FanDuel
Brown didn’t practice at all last week and was a legitimate game-time decision when he was targeted 15 times and caught eight balls for 101 yards and a touchdown. He is not on the final injury report this week so you can fade him at your own peril. Brown leads the NFL in targets (142), catches (88), yards (1,296), and receiving touchdowns (9), and he has posted 21 catches, 240 yards, and two touchdowns in his past two games against the Ravens playing without Jimmy Smith (Achilles, IR). AB has posted a ludicrous 29.09 PPG with a +9.68 Plus/Minus on DraftKings in 30 games since 2014.
Jarvis Landry: $6,000 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel
Landry’s 26.1 percent target market share over the past four weeks leads the Dolphins and he ranks fourth in the NFL this season with 123 targets and 80 catches. The Patriots pass defense has improved incredibly as this season has progressed, but in seven games vs. New England since 2014, Landry has managed to average 15.41 PPG with a +3.45 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and 11.49 PPG with a +2.01 Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
Tight Ends
Ben Watson: $3,200 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel
If you think I’m going to suggest playing Dwayne Allen because Gronk is out, it’s likely you’ve ingested too much meth and should stop reading this to seek medical attention immediately.
Selecting a tight end on this Gronk-less Primetime slate is akin to jamming rusty ice-picks into your own eyeballs but Watson ranks third on the Ravens with a 12.8 percent target market share the past four weeks, and he has had at least three receptions in three of his past four games. Watson had five catches for 43 yards against the Steelers earlier this season.
Good luck this week and be sure to research with our suite of Tools.
