The Week 14 NFL Dashboard
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Steelers at Bills
The Steelers are currently three-point favorites against the Bills in Buffalo this weekend. The over/under is a modest 47. There’s a possibility of snow on Sunday, but wind does not look to be a concern. The implied total for the Bills is 22 points; for the Steelers, 25.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Writer: John Proctor
QB – Ben Roethlisberger
Last week, Big Ben had his first home outing of the season with fewer than three touchdowns. However, this game came against the Giants defense, which ranks seventh against the pass in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). In Ben’s two prior games, which were on the road, he threw for fewer than 225 yards. However, neither opponent managed to score more than nine points in those games.
This week projects for more passing in what Vegas sees as a close game. Ben goes up against a Bills defense that is 21st in pass DVOA. The Bills are allowing 7.1 yards per attempt and 11.7 yards per completion on the season, both bottom-12 numbers. However, they have allowed the eighth-fewest passing touchdowns this season. Per FO, the Bills boast the highest adjusted sack rate and have the third most total sacks this season. We have seen Ben struggle against a strong pass rush on the road, as he was sacked four times in the Steelers loss to Philadelphia in Week 3. With Ben’s road struggles and the Bills’ strong pass rush, Roethlisberger is a bottom-five DK QB in the Levitan Player Model.
RB – Le’Veon Bell
Le’Veon has three straight 100-yard rushing games as the Steelers have gone on a three-game win streak. He also has 80 carries in that span, as well as 21 targets. His volume is as bankable as anything in fantasy football.
The Bills rushing defense poses little threat to Bell, allowing a middling 4.1 yards per carry and 15 rushing touchdowns on th season. The Bills do, however, rank eighth against RBs in pass DVOA, allowing an average of only 5.5 catches per game for 30 yards. Regardless, the matchup is not imposing. Bell rates as a top-six DK and FD RB in the Levitan Model.
RB – DeAngelo Williams
The Steelers are optimistic that Williams (knee) will return soon — not that it matters. With Le’Veon handling over 90 percent of the RB work, Williams will not be a fantasy-relevant option as long as Bell is healthy. If DeAngelo cannot go, Fitzgerald Toussaint will backup Le’Veon.
DeAngelo is officially questionable for Week 14. Monitor this situation via the FantasyLabs News feed.
WR – Antonio Brown
Over the last two weeks, AB has seen only 23 targets. This probably has a lot to do with the combined 30 points scored against the Steelers in that span. The Steelers won by 10 or more points in all three of these contests. However, this week, Vegas projects a closer game. In their four losses prior to this three-game win streak, Brown saw 48 targets. As long as this game isn’t a blowout, Brown should be heavily involved.
Neither of the Bills outside cornerbacks pose a particular threat to Brown. Pro Football Focus grades both outside of the top 50 in coverage. Brown spends the majority of his time on the outside and should mostly avoid the Bills highest-graded cornerback, Nickell Robey-Coleman, who plays in the slot (per our Matchups tool). Brown is currently tied for the highest median projection in our DK Player Models.
WR – Eli Rogers
With Ladarius Green emerging in this offense, Rogers’ role in the offense has decreased. He has only five targets over the last two weeks. With Brown, Bell, and Green as the primary pass catchers, Rogers is impossible to trust going forward.
WR – Cobi Hamilton
Hamilton was hoping to gain the deep threat role vacated by Sammie Coates, but that role seems to have been taken over by Green. Hamilton has only 19 targets over the entire season.
TE – Ladarius Green
Green had the breakout game everyone was hoping for last week. The Steelers are not using him as a pass blocker, instead using him solely as a pass catcher. He saw 11 targets, catching six of them for 110 yards and a touchdown. With that kind of usage, Green is going to be a serious threat going forward. He has six FD Pro Trends on the week.
Buffalo Bills
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Tyrod Taylor
Supported by his strong rushing production, Taylor has averaged 41.13 yards and 0.63 TDs on the ground in his last eight games. In a week in which value is hard to find, TyGod has the second-highest floor projection at the position and costs just $5,400 on DK, where he has a 98 percent Bargain Rating. The Steelers are slightly above average against the pass, ranking 11th in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Above Average (DVOA). Pittsburgh has allowed the sixth-fewest passing touchdowns (15) and eighth-fewest DK points per game (16.7) to QBs. He’s borderline cash-viable and definitely a tournament option at two to four percent projected ownership. TyGod is the third-highest rated DK QB in our Cash Model.
RB – LeSean McCoy
Per Player Profiler, McCoy is first in the NFL in runs of 15-plus yards this season with 1.4 per game. Per our Trends tool, home underdog RBs comparable to McCoy in salary and projected point total typically perform above salary-based expectations on FD (per our Plus/Minus metric):
McCoy has been largely matchup-proof this year and has seen ten opportunities inside the 10-yard line over the past four games — the fifth-highest total in the league (per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report). The massive volume and Buffalo’s continued commitment to the running game makes McCoy playable in all formats. He’s the sixth-highest rated FD RB in our Tournament Model with a position-leading 12 Pro Trends and a chalky 17-20 percent ownership projection on both sites.
RB – Mike Gillislee and Reggie Bush
Don’t chase touchdowns with Gillislee. When McCoy is healthy, Gillislee and Bush hardly ever see the field. They’re not even contrarian tournament flyers.
WR – Sammy Watkins
Watkins converted his nine targets into a 3/38/0 line during the Bills’ Week 13 loss to the Raiders. The production was subpar, but at least he was fully involved in the offense, getting snaps, and seeing targets.
Now he has a good matchup against Artie Burns — PFF’s No. 56 CB. Watkins is priced at $6000 on FD with an 88 percent Bargain Rating and a +3.9 Projected Plus/Minus — the fifth-highest mark among all WRs. The Steelers are only 28th in pass DVOA against opposing WR1s.
Watkins is officially questionable but expected to play after practicing this week.
WR – Robert Woods
Like Watkins, Woods is officially questionable but expected to play. Nevertheless, he’ll have to overcome his historical struggles with Watkins on the field. Per RotoViz, the splits are significant:
The Bills receivers have a tough matchup against a Steelers secondary that has held opposing WRs to two points below salary-based expectations over the past 16 games. Additionally, Woods draws the 24th-most disadvantageous WR/CB matchup of the week with slot CB William Gay.
WR – Marquise Goodwin, Justin Hunter, and Brandon Tate
On an offense that moves the ball primarily on the ground, these guys are basically fighting for scraps. Goodwin and Hunter are the lowest and fourth-lowest rated FD WRs in our Tournament Model.
TE – Charles Clay
He hasn’t cracked 29 yards in the last six weeks, and the Steelers are seventh against TEs in pass DVOA.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
