The Week 14 NFL Dashboard
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Saints at Buccaneers
This game currently has the highest Vegas total of the week at 51 points. The visiting Saints are 2.5-point road dogs implied to score 24.25 points. The Buccaneers are currently implied for 26.75 points at home.
New Orleans Saints
Writer: Tyler Buecher
QB – Drew Brees
After submitting a 13-point DraftKings outing as one of the most-owned quarterbacks last week, Brees is likely to have decreased ownership this week. The Saints and Buccaneers both rank inside the top three in plays per game, which could lead to an uptick in volume for a Saints passing attack that leads the league in yards per drive (60) and ranks second in points per drive (2.5). The Bucs have allowed the sixth-most passing touchdowns so far this season, and five QBs have cleared 20-plus fantasy points against them. Our Player Models have Brees with the highest median projection (21.9 DK points) and a current FantasyLabs projected ownership of five to eight percent.
RB – Mark Ingram
While the Bucs rank 23rd against the run in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), they’ve changed their tune as of late. Strengthened by the return of Gerald McCoy, Tampa Bay has allowed just one rushing TD and one 100-yard rushing performance over the last five games.
Ingram’s usage — 13.4 touches per game over the last five games — removes him from consideration in cash games, especially since he has just seven carries in two of the last three contests. Ingram (toe) is dealing with an injury and has been limited in practice after playing just 32.8 snaps last week.
Ingram is officially questionable for the week. Monitor his status via the FantasyLabs News feed.
RB – Tim Hightower
After averaging 19.6 touches per game in Weeks 8-12, Hightower was limited to just three touches against the Lions last week. With that usage, Hightower is a questionable option this week, especially since the Bucs are holding RBs to a -1.7 DK Opponent Plus/Minus over the last 16 games. However, if Ingram has any kind of setback, Hightower would be a value at just $4,500 DK.
WR – Michael Thomas
Tampa Bay has allowed the fifth-most receiving touchdowns and 13th-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season. Per our Matchups tool, Thomas runs the majority of his routes from the left side of the formation and should face a good deal of Alterraun Verner in coverage. Verner is giving up 0.27 fantasy points per route defended and currently ranks as Pro Football Focus’ No. 44 cornerback. Thomas is averaging nearly 13 FanDuel points per game and has led the Saints receivers in snaps the last two weeks. He leads all wide receivers in FD Upside and makes for a strong play given this game total.
Thomas (foot) is questionable but expect to play after having a limited practice on Friday.
WR – Brandin Cooks
The Saints have bounced Cooks between the right side of the formation and the slot for most of this year. That should line Cooks up against both Brent Grimes and Vernon Hargreaves III for most of this matchup. The 33-year-old Grimes is giving up 0.29 fantasy points per route and could have trouble keeping up with the speedy Cooks. Hargreaves has been picked on routinely by opposing quarterbacks — he’s been targeted on 22 percent of routes run against him — and the rookie continues to take his lumps. On FD Cooks has a 98 percent Bargain Rating and leads all Saints receivers with eight Pro Trends.
WR – Willie Snead
Snead is once again the lowest-priced receiver of the bunch on DK, where he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus (+1.89) with the lowest projected ownership (two to four percent). Snead continues to operate mostly out of the slot and should see plenty of Hargreaves, who’s giving up 0.30 fantasy points per route defended. Snead has surpassed 40 receiving yards only once in the last five weeks and has the lowest ceiling projection of all three wideouts.
TE – Coby Fleener
With Josh Hill out for the rest of the season, Fleener has the tight end job all to himself. Fleener has a 19.9-point ceiling on DK along with six Pro Trends. He leads all Saints players in red zone targets (15) on the season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Writer: Tyler Buecher
QB – Jameis Winston
Over the past seven games, we’ve seen Winston perform at a steady rate of 18.9 FD points per game with 14 passing touchdowns over that span. The Saints rank 26th in pass DVOA and have allowed six opposing QBs to clear the 300-yard mark. Winston has the second-highest FD ceiling projection this week.
RB – Doug Martin
Martin missed the last three drives of last week’s win after his body was awkwardly bent during a tackle. It looks like Martin will still be able to play this week. He faces a Saints defense that has allowed the second-most total touchdowns and seventh-most FD points to opposing RBs, six of whom have scored 20-plus points. Martin is averaging 21.8 touches per game since his return to injury and certainly looks to be in play this week. Of course, if Martin continues to run for only 2.85 yards per attempt, he’s likely to lose carries.
RB – Jacquizz Rodgers and Charles Sims
Quizz has been relegated to backup duties with Martin back. There are reports that the coaching staff want to get Rodgers the ball more, but he still makes for a risky play, given his 8.5-point DK ceiling. Sims has been activated off Injured Reserve and is expected to play this week, but his role upon returning will be uncertain with Quizz now in the muixz.
WR – Mike Evans
After a tough outing last week against PFF’s No. 5 CB Casey Hayward, Evans is set to have a big bounceback performance against Delvin Breaux, who is allowing 0.32 fantasy points per route and is being targeted on a heavy 23 percent of the routes run against him. He’s simply not good, ranking as one of PFF’s bottom-12 CBs among all qualifying CBs. As noted by Editor-in-Chief Matthew Freedman in the WR Breakdown, Evans leads the league with 11.5 targets per game, ranks second in touchdown rate (0.83 per game), and ranks fourth in yards per game (88.2).
WR – Adam Humphries
First is was Vincent Jackson. Now it’s Cecil Shorts. No matter how many other Bucs receivers are placed on Injured Reserve, Humphries is unlikely to become a real fantasy option. Gretchen, stop trying to make “fetch” happen. It’s not going to happen.
Humphries is battling a concussion he received in last week’s game and might not play in Week 14.
WR – Russell Shepard and Freddie Martino
Shepard could be in line for more looks with Shorts out of the lineup and one less mouth to feed. However, Martino outperformed Shepard last week on nearly half the snaps, finishing with a 4-56-0 stat line to Shepard’s 1-15-0. Regardless, both are risky. Shepard has a 4.2-point projection on FD; Martino, a 4.1-point projection.
TE – Cameron Brate
The Saints are tied for the fourth-most red-zone trips allowed to opposing offenses (3.6) and have allowed four opposing tight ends to score 15-plus DK points. Brate has scored in four of his last six games, and he leads all TEs with six red-zone TDs. In fact, Jordy Nelson is the only player with more TDs than Brate inside the opponent’s 20-yard line. Brate has exceeded his salary-based expectations for most of the season:
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
