The Week 14 NFL Dashboard
For the rest of our positional breakdowns and team previews, visit our NFL dashboard.
Ravens at Patriots
The Patriots currently sit as seven-point favorites. Even though the line has dropped from -7.5, the over/under for this game has increased to 45.5. The Ravens have an implied team total of 19.25; the Patriots, 26.25.
Baltimore Ravens
Writer: John Proctor
QB – Joe Flacco
Flacco had his one ‘Flacco game’ per year in Week 13. The big question remains: Has the Ravens offense turned a corner . . . or were the Dolphins merely exposed? Flacco’s offensive line is playing much better now than it was to start the season, ranking seventh in adjusted sack rate allowed, per Football Outsiders. The Ravens have given up 22 sacks this season, but Flacco has been sacked only three times over the last three games.
This week he faces a Patriots defensive line that is fourth worst in adjusted sack rate. The Pats are also 25th against the pass in FO’s Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). However, the Patriots are allowing only 17.2 points per game, the second fewest in the NFL. Coming off of his big game, Flacco is a tournament-only play against a defense that does not give up touchdowns.
RB – Terrance West
Still competing with rookie Kenneth Dixon in a maddening timeshare, West saw only 13 total touches in Week 13, but he turned those touches into 68 total yards and two touchdowns. He did, however, dominate the snaps, with 51 percent to Dixon’s 33 percent.
Regardless, it is difficult to trust a timeshare RB going against a Patriots defense that is fourth in rush DVOA.
RB – Kenneth Dixon
After taking a slight snap lead in Week 12, Dixon returned to the RB2 role in Week 13. He was efficient on his limited action, averaging 9.3 yards per carry on six attempts. With the Ravens projected to be trailing, Dixon could see extensive passing work, but it’s also possible that both Dixon and West could lose passing work to Kyle Juszczyk. Dixon can’t be trusted with his inconsistent usage.
WR – Steve Smith
Smith was a target hog in Week 13, with 10 targets on the day. However, for the second straight week he was highly efficient. He caught only 60 percent of his targets for 8.83 yards per reception. While it is difficult to trust any pass catcher in this offense, Smith has a respectable ceiling projection for his salary. He’s a tournament option with the Ravens projected to be trailing.
WR – Mike Wallace
Wallace has at least 50 receiving yards in each of his last four games, but he hasn’t cleared 70 yards in that span. With the Ravens projected to trail, Wallace should see plenty of work, although (per our Matchups tool) the majority of that work should come against Malcolm Butler, Pro Football Focus’ No. 4 CB.
WR – Breshad Perriman
Perriman now has three TDs in his last four games. Unfortunately, he also has only 10 targets in that span. While he is scoring touchdowns, he doesn’t have trustworthy volume for fantasy purposes.
TE – Dennis Pitta
Last week, Pitta scored two TDs against the Dolphins, seeing three red-zone targets after seeing only five in the first 12 games of the season. Pitta also saw 10 targets in this game after getting only 16 targets combined in the three previous games. That type of production from Pitta isn’t consistent with his usage and probably isn’t trust worthy. Additionally, the Patriots defense is holding TEs to a -1.3 DK Opponent Plus/Minus over the last 16 games.
New England Patriots
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Tom Brady
We know the drill with Brady by now: He’s in play every single week, but this may be his toughest matchup to date, and he’s still not cheap. The Ravens are fifth in pass DVOA and first in rush DVOA. Brady might be too risky for cash games, but he’s an option for guaranteed prize pools, as he has slate’s highest ceiling projection.
RB – LeGarrette Blount
The Ravens are stout against the run, holding RBs to the slate’s fourth-lowest Opponent Plus/Minus (-1.4) over the last 16 games. Blount might be an underappreciated tournament option as the Patriots’ primary goal-line back, but (per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report) he’s recently lost some work near the end zone to Dion Lewis:
Blount does have eight touches inside the 10-yard line over his past four games, but that number was higher before Lewis returned. Blount is a risky option this week anyway — but he’s even riskier if he’s starting to lose high-quality carries.
RB – James White / Dion Lewis
Leave it to Bill Belichick to ruin the value of two good RBs. The return of Lewis has severely devalued the pass-catching RB role in New England. There’s plenty of receiving work to go around, but as long as both White and Lewis are getting targets neither one is likely to be dependable or productive enough to roster. It’s a tough matchup on the ground, but it should be noted that the Ravens have been vulnerable to pass-catching RBs, as they rank 22nd in pass DVOA against RBs. Neither RB rates well in our Player Models in Week 14.
WR – Julian Edelman
He has the fifth-highest target share in the league at 29.52 percent, and in Week 13 he reached 20 DK points for the second time in three weeks. His high target floor is appealing for cash games, but he still has just two TDs on the season. He has the potential to score multiple TDs in any given game — especially now with Rob Gronkowski out — but Edelman doesn’t have the ceiling to be an attractive GPP play each week.
WR – Malcolm Mitchell
Brady clearly likes this kid, who has 22 targets, 17 receptions, 222 yards, and three TDs over the past three games — but Chris Hogan has still played more snaps since his return two weeks ago. Nevertheless, the Pats are now using more three-receiver sets, so it’s possible that Mitchell will continue to see steady playing time. At $4,200 DK, Mitchell is the No. 6 WR in our Cash Model with a Bargain Rating of 91 percent and the position’s fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus.
WR – Chris Hogan
Hogan has five targets in both of his games since his return, but it’s tough to see him as anything more than a GPP flyer against the Ravens, especially since he’s expected to see the majority of his snaps against CB Tavon Young, who has an above-average 81.4 PFF coverage grade.
TE – Martellus Bennett
Bennett has a total of 7.4 FD points in the last three weeks, and now he faces a Ravens defense ranked No. 1 in pass DVOA against TEs. He’s a contrarian GPP option, but Bennett’s upside as a receiver is limited without Gronk around to do some of the blocking work.
Bennett (ankle, shoulder) is questionable but expected to play after practicing on a limited basis this week.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
