The Week 14 NFL Dashboard
For the rest of our positional breakdowns and team previews, visit our NFL dashboard.
Broncos at Titans
The Broncos travel to Nashville and are implied to score 21.75 points against the Titans in a pick’em. The over/under is 43.5.
QB – Trevor Siemian
Siemian (foot) practiced this week and looks as if he’ll start in Week 14, but his status is still to be decided. Monitor this situation via the FantasyLabs News feed. If Siemian is unable to play this week, Paxton Lynch will start in his place.
Whoever starts, he’ll have a good matchup against a Titans defense that has by far the most favorable QB Opponent Plus Minus on the slate. Siemian is currently the No. 2 DraftKings QB in the Levitan Model. “Siemian in cash” is a disgusting phrase, but Siemian in a guaranteed prize pool is bearable, given his FantasyLabs ownership projection of zero to one percent.
RB – Devontae Booker
Booker has not inspired confidence since the team lost C.J. Anderson to injury. He is averaging a pathetic 2.80 yards per carry over his last five games and has just five opportunities inside the 10-yard line over his past four (per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report). Evidently tired of one subpar RB, head coach Gary Kubiak has turned to another subpar RB — Justin Forsett, whom he oversaw as the Ravens offensive coordinator in 2014 and Texans head coach in 2012. Forsett is 31 years old, small, slow, and the 2016 castoff of the Ravens and Lions. Booker is still likely to lead the backfield, but Forsett will probably steal a few touches.
Nevertheless, at just $4,800 DK, Booker currently is the No. 5 RB in our Tournament Model with an ownership projection of two to four percent.
RB – Justin Forsett
Salaried on FD but not DK, Forsett is a professional thorn in the side at this point of his career. Just signed by Denver, he’s likely to take the place of the injured Kapri Bibbs (ankle) this week. With no certain DFS value of his own, he seemingly exists merely to reduce the potential of Booker. Given his history with Kubiak, Forsett might get way more touches than he should:
Reportedly, Forsett feels comfortable in the Broncos offense because it’s basically the same offense that Kubiak used in Baltimore two years ago.
WR – Demaryius Thomas
Thomas and Sanders are third and fourth in target market share over the past four games in the entire NFL. Because of their roles in the offense, both WRs are intriguing each week. Thomas is currently the No. 10 FD WR in our Tournament Model at just five to eight percent projected ownership. Per our Trends tool, road WRs with comparable salaries and point projections typically perform above salary-based expectation on FD:
WR – Emmanuel Sanders
FantasyLabs Co-founder and Broncos fan Peter Jennings jokes about being worried that his wife will one day leave him for Manny.
And he should be worried. Manny’s a good-looking guy.
Sanders is a strong play this week in all formats, especially if Siemian starts. Sanders is the No. 1 WR in our both our Cash and Tournament Models on FD, where at just $5,900 he has the slate’s third-highest floor projection. He also has the slate’s highest Projected Plus/Minus and a 96 percent Bargain Rating.
WR – Jordan Norwood
Norwood has averaged just 2.75 targets per game over the past four games. He has one touchdown all season and dreams of the day when someone accidentally forgets to take him out of a dummy GPP lineup.
TE – Virgil Green
Green has just three red-zone targets this entire season.
Titans
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Marcus Mariota
It’s not you, Marcus, it’s Denver:
QBs facing the Broncos this season have posted a -2.61 Plus/Minus with 25 percent Consistency and have averaged 14 DK points per game. The Broncos have allowed the fewest fantasy points to QBs this season, and Mariota doesn’t get enough chances to throw the ball to overcome that. This season, the Titans have called the fourth-fewest pass plays in the league, per playerprofiler.com. Mariota is priced at $6,200 DK, and his +0.49 Projected Plus/Minus is the second-lowest mark among all QBs.
RB – DeMarco Murray
Murray is virtually guaranteed to rack up 20 touches on a weekly basis. He’s been held under that threshold just once since Week 2, and he’s had a bye week to rest his lingering toe injury.
Murray’s facing a Broncos defense that has struggled to limit rushes to the left side of the field:
Per Sharpfootballstats.com, opponents have struggled to run on the Broncos for the most part, but are averaging over six yards per carry on runs over left tackle. This sets up very nicely for Murray, who has gashed opponents all season in this exact location:
Murray has been pretty great wherever he’s run, but especially to the left. A large part of his success can be attributed to left tackle Taylor Lewan — Pro Football Focus’ third-best run-blocking tackle. Murray is priced at $7,000 DK with a +4.17 Projected Plus/Minus and two to four percent projected ownership.
RB – Derrick Henry
Henry has had eight-plus rush attempts in each of his last three games, but his workload has come with the Titans leading by wide margins. He’s still the No. 2 RB behind Murray. At $5,200 DK, Henry has a brutal -5.42 Projected Plus/Minus — the third-lowest mark among all RBs.
WR – Rishard Matthews
Matthews has gained 80-plus receiving yards or scored a touchdown in nine of his last 10 games. He’s averaging 6.1 targets per game and has fully established himself as the team’s go-to receiver, but now he’s facing a Broncos defense that is built to take away the opponent’s No. 1 wide receiver:
WRs averaging at least six targets on the season have scored just 8.77 DK points per game against the Broncos this season, posting a -4.38 Plus/Minus with 16.7 percent Consistency. Overall, the Broncos defense ranks first in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average against No. 1 WRs. Matthews is priced at $6,200 FD with a 78 percent Bargain Rating and zero to one percent projected ownership.
WR – Tajae Sharpe
The Broncos defense ranks first in DVOA against No. 1 WRs — and No. 2 WRs. Sharpe has made progress as the season has progressed, but he still has a volatile role in the offense, as he’s been targeted fewer than five times in three of his last five games. Even if he gets extra targets due to his matchup against Bradley Roby (Denver’s weakest CB; he has a PFF coverage grade of 50), Sharpe hasn’t shown the ability to exploit good matchups. Overall, he’s averaged 1.39 fantasy points and 6.8 yards per target this season — marks that rank outside of the top-80 among all wide receivers. Sharpe is priced at $3,400 DK with an 87 percent Bargain Rating. He faces a Broncos defense that has held WRs to three points below salary-based expectations over the past 12 months.
WR – Kendall Wright
Wright wasn’t targeted in the Titans’ Week 12 win over the Bears, and (per our Matchups tool) he’s expected to face slot CB Chris Harris Jr. — PFF’s No. 2 CB. Even at just $3,300 DK, Wright is hard to trust due to his tough matchup and volatile role in a run-first offense.
TE – Delanie Walker
Walker has been excellent all season and is currently ranked among the top-five TEs in both receiving yards and touchdowns. He’s managed to produce despite averaging just 6.5 targets per game this season compared to last season’s 8.9. Walker’s facing a Broncos defense that has historically had trouble slowing down elite TEs:
TEs who have averaged at least five targets per game have scored 10.77 DK points per game against the Broncos over the past three seasons, posting a +3.08 Plus/Minus with 59.1 percent Consistency. And this cohort has been even more productive this season. Walker is priced at $6,200 FD with an 81 percent Bargain Rating and two to four percent projected ownership.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
