Week 13 gives us a slate in which there are not many true downgrades. This is a great opportunity to take advantage of the matchups for the stud wide receivers, especially Julio Jones. Let’s break down this week’s notable WR/CB matchups using our NFL Matchups tool as a guide.
The Studs
Julio Jones vs. Marcus Peters and Phillip Gaines
As expected, Jones struggled with Patrick Peterson, and Matt Ryan relied on his other options last week. This week, Julio should bounce back big.
In Week 12, the Broncos made a concerted effort to match Emmanuel Sanders up with Gaines on the left side of the field. Sanders answered with a 7-162-1 stat line. The Chiefs do not use Peters in shadow coverage, instead playing him at left corner back on nearly 100 percent of his snaps.
Falcons offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan is the king of moving Julio around the formation to draw mismatches. It is likely that he will do his best to get Julio matched up with Gaines a lot in this game. If so, then Julio will be going against Pro Football Focus’ third-worst graded coverage CB. As it is, Julio runs most of his routes on Gaines’ side of the field anyway and will see plenty of him this weekend. This is a major upgrade for Julio, who is the highest-rated FanDuel WR in the Levitan Player Model.
Antonio Brown vs. Janoris Jenkins and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie
Like Shanahan, Steelers offensive coordinator Todd Haley moves Brown all over the formation to find mismatches. Unfortunately for Haley, he won’t be able to do that this week. When Brown is on the outside he will likely be shadowed by Jenkins, PFF’s No. 11 coverage CB. When Brown moves into the slot to avoid Jenkins, he will then be covered by DRC, PFF’s No. 9 coverage CB.
However, Brown has dominated these matchups in the past. Plus, Terrelle Pryor gave Jenkins real problems in Week 12, catching six passes for 131 yards. If Pryor can work Jenkins, Brown should have no trouble. While this coverage unit is technically a downgrade, it can probably be considered a neutral matchup for Brown.
Odell Beckham Jr. vs. Steelers Secondary
Beckham is now averaging more than a touchdown per game since Week 5, although his yardage totals are down. The larger problem for OBJ is that the Giants have allowed an average of only 16.4 points in their last five games. With teams scoring fewer points against them, Eli Manning has cleared 40 passing attempts only once in that span. This has resulted in two games with fewer than 10 targets for Beckham over the last five weeks.
Still, Vegas projects the Giants to trail in this game, which has a high over/under of 50 points. If the Giants are behind, there is little reason to expect Beckham to get fewer than 10 targets. As for the matchup, the Steelers boast a strong coverage unit with both William Gay and Ross Cockrell have top-24 PFF coverage grades among CBs. The Steelers also boast the 13th overall pass defense per Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). While the matchup is a slight downgrade, OBJ has a chance to be targeted like an elite receiver.
Mike Evans vs. Casey Hayward
The Chargers have allowed plenty of passing yards this season, but not necessarily to WRs. The Chargers have given up the ninth-most passing yards this season, but only 66 percent of that yardage has gone to WRs. The Chargers are especially susceptible to tight ends and running backs in the receiving game.
Much of this is thanks to the team’s strong CB play. Hayward is PFF’s No. 5 coverage CB this season and should shadow Evans this weekend. That said, Evans has six inches and 4o pounds on Hayward. This should give Evans a major advantage in the red zone, even if he faces strong coverage between the 20s. Hayward will probably affect Evans’ efficiency this weekend, but Evans still remains a good bet for a touchdown.
Notable Upgrades
Tyreek Hill vs. Desmond Trufant-less Falcons
Tyreek the Freak, who runs a lot of his routes out of the slot and as a pass-catching RB, will be facing the Falcons, who allow most of their deep production in the middle of the field and are 26th in pass DVOA against RBs. In the past, the Falcons might have deployed Desmond Trufant in shadow coverage, but he’s now out for the season.
Brian Poole, who will be covering the slot full time in Trufant’s absence, ran a 4.49-second 40-yard dash at his pro day. Tyreek ran his in 4.25 and is a big mismatch for Poole. Of all DK WRs, Hill is second in the Levitan Model.
Larry Fitzgerald vs. Kendall Fuller
Fitzgerald will mostly avoid lockdown CB Josh Norman this weekend as he runs 65 percent of his routes from the slot, where he’ll face off against Fuller, who is allowing 0.36 fantasy points per route against, the 12th-worst mark in the slate.
The problem with Fitz is that he has been out-targeted by David Johnson in each of their last two games. With quarterback Carson Palmer struggling, the Cardinals have looked content just to dump the ball off to Johnson. However, if Fitz is able to get back up to the 10-plus targets that he has seen in over half of his games this season, he has the potential for a big game. Fitzgerald has eight DraftKings Pro Trends.
Notable Downgrade
Dez Bryant vs. Xavier Rhodes
If CB Terence Newman misses another game this week, then Dez is very likely to see shadow coverage from Rhodes. It would be a total shock to see Dez see any snaps against Trae Waynes. Even if Newman can play, it would make sense for Rhodes to shadow him anyway, since Rhodes matches up better with with Dez from a physical standpoint. Rhodes is allowing a completion percentage of less than 50 percent on pass attempts in his coverage.
In Week 11, Palmer had a 0.0 passer rating when targeting Rhodes. Plus, the Vikings have something of a funnel defense, ranking 16th in rush DVOA and fourth in pass DVOA. Expect Dak to look elsewhere with Rhodes smothering Dez.
