The Week 13 NFL Dashboard
For the rest of our positional breakdowns and team previews, visit our NFL dashboard.
Rams at Patriots
The Rams travel to Foxborough this weekend as large 13-point dogs versus the 9-2 New England Patriots. The Patriots just suffered bad news that tight end Rob Gronkowski will be out for the rest of the season. They are currently implied for 29.25 points; the Rams, a slate-low 16.25 points.
Los Angeles Rams
QB – Jared Goff
After struggling in his first career NFL start, Goff bounced back nicely last week, completing 20 of his 32 passes for 214 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception. That said, the game took place at the Coors Field of daily fantasy football, and Goff’s 17.6 FanDuel points were the third-lowest total of the season at the Superdome, behind Trevor Siemian‘s 16.8-point outing and an injured Russell Wilson‘s 10.2-point game. All in all, we probably haven’t learned much about Goff in the last two weeks. What we know about his matchup is that it sets up well for QBs: The Patriots have a definite funnel defense, as they rank fourth against the run but 28th versus the pass, per Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). That said, Goff is still only three games into his career and has to play against a Bill Belichick team on the road. He has the lowest FanDuel ceiling projection among QBs at 7.1 points.
RB – Todd Gurley
As mentioned above, the Patriots rank fourth in rush DVOA and 28th in pass DVOA. There’s absolutely no reason for them to do anything defensively out of the ordinary. They’ll likely stack the box versus Gurley and force Goff to beat them — as teams have done all year against the Rams with great success. Gurley has continued his disappointing sophomore campaign, averaging only 3.2 yards per carry after notching a stout 4.8 mark as a rookie. He doesn’t have to worry about losing work to anyone else — he owns 68.75 percent of the Rams’ rushes over the past four games (per the Market Share Report — but there’s a very good chance that the Rams will need to abandon the run early in this game. Gurley’s floor is very low, making him a risk play in all formats, even at a nice $5,000 DraftKings price tag.
RB – Benny Cunningham
If you think that Cunningham is the ‘receiving back’ in this offense, note that he has three combined targets in his last two games. Gurley had four last game. Neither are especially promising as pass catchers, especially Cunningham.
WR – Kenny Britt
Given that this anemic Rams offense has been ‘quarterbacked’ by Goff and Case Keenum all year, Britt’s actually been impressively consistent:
Over his last nine games, Britt has exceeded salary-based expectations (per our Plus/Minus metric) in six of them, averaging a 5.35 DK Plus/Minus in that time frame. He’s received at least six targets in each of his last six games and owns a team-high 24.62 percent of the targets in the last four games. That said, Britt will draw (per our Matchups tool) an absolutely brutal matchup on the outside versus Patriots CB Malcolm Butler, who is Pro Football Focus’ fourth-ranked CB on the year with an elite 86.1 coverage grade. Britt is about the only guy of interest on the Rams, but this matchup bumps him to a fringe GPP play at best.
WR – Tavon Austin
The days of Tavon getting tons of inefficient volume are officially over. Now he’s just inefficient. Over the last four games, he’s seen four, two, seven, and two targets — a low 11.03 percent market share — and he’s posted a combined 102 receiving yards. His low $5,000 FD salary is somewhat intriguing — he has a +3.2 Projected Plus/Minus this week — but note that he has a miserably low 2.1-point projected floor.
Also, Austin (chest) missed practice on Friday and is officially doubtful. He’s unlikely to play. It’s hard to say that he’ll be missed.
WR – Brian Quick
Quick has 13.24 percent of the Rams’ targets over the last four games. He had 0.8 FD points last week on one reception for three yards at the Superdome. That doesn’t bode well for Week 13.
TE – Lance Kendricks
Kendricks is somewhat intriguing this week as a TE punt play, as he has owned 20.59 percent of the Rams’ targets over the last month and gets a Patriots defense that ranks 29th in pass DVOA against TEs. He showed some chemistry with Goff last week, catching four of his seven targets for 51 yards and a touchdown. He’s about the only thing that represents a safety blanket for the young QB, and Goff might need one badly this weekend. Kendricks is a fine GPP dart on FD, where his $4,900 salary comes with five Pro Trends and a 74 percent Bargain Rating.
New England Patriots
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Tom Brady
We know the drill with Brady by now: He’s in play for both cash games and GPPs every single week. He currently has the highest floor and third-highest ceiling projections on DK. Naturally, he’s not cheap.
RB – LeGarrette Blount
Even as a huge favorite, Blount doesn’t rank highly in any of our Player Models. He’s an intriguing GPP play, as he has a top-eight FD ceiling projection and just two to four percent projected ownership in the Sunday Million. Given that the Patriots are projected to be in scoring position quite a bit, Blount could be an underappreciated GPP play: He leads the league in TDs rushing, has three multi-TD games, and hasn’t scored in the last two weeks.
RB – James White / Dion Lewis
The return of Lewis has severely devalued the pass-catching RB role in New England.
Which stat lines belong to which guy? It doesn’t really matter because, aside from a touchdown, the receiving work has pretty much been split.
There’s plenty of receiving work to go around, but as long as both guys are getting targets neither one is likely to be dependable or productive enough to roster. In our Tournament Model, neither RB is in the top 15 in Rating:
WR – Julian Edelman
With 28 targets over the last two games . . .
. . . Edelman is basically at his ceiling.
Despite having the eighth-highest target share in the league at 27 percent, Edelman has reached 20 DK points just once this season. His high floor of targets is very appealing in cash games, but he has only two TDs on the season. He could always go off for multiple TDs in a game — now especially Gronk out — but Edelman just doesn’t have the ceiling to make him an attractive GPP play.
WR – Malcolm Mitchell
Brady clearly likes this kid, who has 12 targets, nine receptions, 140 yards, and three TDs, but with Chris Hogan‘s return last week he played only 47 percent of the offensive snaps. Until his role in the offense becomes more certain he’s a speculative GPP play. Of course, with Gronk now out, the Pats are likely to use more three-receiver sets. It’s possible that the Pats will start to rely on Mitchell more than they previously have.
WR – Chris Hogan
Hogan was fifth in team targets in his return last week. It’s tough to see him as anything more than a GPP flyer.
Hogan (back) is officially questionable but expected to play. He practiced (albeit limitedly) every day this week.
TE – Rob Gronkowski
Quoth the Raven, “Nevermore.”
TE – Martellus Bennett
Bennett has eight total DK points in the last two weeks, but he now has the Patriots TE job all to himself and is facing a Rams defense ranked 22nd in pass DVOA against TEs. Keep in mind that he has been more productive this season with Gronk than without. Per RotoViz:
He’s projected for two to four percent ownership.
Bennett (ankle, shoulder) is questionable but fully expected to play.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
