The Week 13 NFL Dashboard
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Lions at Saints
The Saints host the Lions as five-point favorites for their Week 13 matchup. It’s expected to be a very high-scoring game, as the Lions are currently implied to score 24.25 points and the Saints 29.25 points.
Lions
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Matthew Stafford
To say opposing quarterbacks have thrived in New Orleans would be an understatement:
The Superdome is basically the Coors Field of daily fantasy football. As our Trends tool shows, opposing QBs in New Orleans have posted a +4.57 Plus/Minus on DraftKings with 72 percent Consistency, averaging 20.5 DK points over the past three seasons. The Saints defense hasn’t been that bad against the pass this season, ranking ‘just’ 23rd in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Replacement (DVOA), but at the Superdome we often see shootouts, which inflate the point totals of opposing QBs. Sure enough, the Lions-Saints game currently has a Vegas total of 53.5 points — the highest mark of Week 13 by four points.
Keep in mind that, while Stafford boasts the second-highest projection of all QBs, he also has a position-high 17-20 percent FantasyLabs projected ownership on DK, where he’s priced at $7,000 and has a +3.62 Projected Plus/Minus.
RB – Theo Riddick
Riddick has taken over as the Lions’ featured RB, as he’s had nine-plus carries in seven of his nine games this season. He’s excelled as the team’s No. 1 back, as his average of 17.23 DK points per game ranks seventh among all running backs through 12 weeks. Riddick will look to keep balling out this week in a matchup in which he has historically thrived. He’s posted a +4.62 Plus/Minus with 64.3 percent Consistency and has averaged 11.21 DK points in his 14 games as a road underdog over the past three seasons. Riddick has a good matchup against a Saints defense that has allowed 8.24 yards per play over the past 12 months — the second-highest mark in the league.
Riddick (ankle) is officially questionable but expected to play.
RB – Dwayne Washington and Zach Zenner
Washington received only five carries last week after converting his 13 carries into just six yards during the Lions’ Week 11 win over the Jaguars. Zenner has just one carry over the past two weeks. Neither player is a recommended option due to the minuscule workload.
WR – Golden Tate
Tate saw fewer targets than Marvin Jones last week but was more productive and is still expected to be heavily involved in the offense on a weekly basis. Tate has made the most of his targets all season, as he’s averaging a position-high 4.9 yards after the catch per target, per Player Profiler. Still, his upside will continue to be limited by his lack of involvement in the red zone, where he trails three other Lions receivers by at least four targets. Tate is priced at $5,900 on FD with a 99 percent Bargain Rating and has a +5.95 Projected Plus/Minus.
WR – Marvin Jones
Jones didn’t see eight targets in a game between Week 4 and Week 11, but last week he was targeted a season-high 11 times. The problem is that Jones has continued to underwhelm since a promising start to the season:
As our Trends tool shows, Jones has posted a -4.98 DK Plus/Minus with 12.5 percent Consistency and has averaged just 8.56 DK points over his past eight games. Per our Matchups tool, he’ll be facing Saints No. 1 cornerback Delvin Breaux (leg), who is expected to play this Sunday. Breaux was one of the best CB in the league last season, as his 48.8 percent catch rate allowed was the fourth-lowest mark among all CB, per Pro Football Focus. Jones is priced at $4,400 DK and has a low 2.1-point floor projection.
Jones (thigh) is officially listed as questionable to play. Beat writers are expecting him to play, but they’re also saying that he’s playing at well below 100 percent capacity.
WR – Anquan Boldin
Boldin surpassed 60 receiving yards for the first time this season during the Lions’ Thanksgiving Day game, as he converted his nine targets into a 7-61-1 line. He’s now been targeted nine times in consecutive games and is tied for the team lead with six targets inside the 10-yard line. Still, Boldin’s upside will continue to be limited by his non-threatening routes, as his 5.7 aDOT is the third-lowest mark among all WRs this season. He is priced at $5,000 on FD with an 83 percent Bargain Rating and has a +4.5 Projected Plus/Minus.
TE – Eric Ebron
Ebron gained at least 70 receiving yards in three consecutive games prior to being shut out last week. Vikings safety Harrison Smith certainly had something to do with Ebron’s lack of involvement in the offense, but that game still demonstrates his lack of an overarching defined role in the offense. The one area where his role is defined is in the red zone, although that role is not a good one: Ebron’s three red-zone targets this season rank fifth on the team. He’s priced at $5,700 on FD with a +3.61 Plus/Minus. He could see a lot of Vonn Bell — PFF’s 15th-highest graded safety this season.
New Orleans Saints
Writer: Tyler Buecher
QB – Drew Brees
After throwing four touchdowns and gaining 310 yards through the air last week, Brees is the most expensive QB on both sites this week. The Lions are allowing the fourth-most passing touchdowns and the fifth-most DK points this season. Every QB to play against them (other than Sam Bradford and Brock Osweiler) has scored multiple TDs. Brees leads the league in passing yards, passing touchdowns, and completion percentage, leaving him as a fantastic option in cash games and tournaments.
RB – Mark Ingram
Ingram had a bit of a bounce back in Week 12, seeing a dominant percentage of the RB snaps for the first time since his benching in Week 8. Since Week 9, Ingram has averaged 95.5 rushing yards per game and 21.4 DK points per game and absolutely thrived despite the limited usage. The Lions defense ranks 28th in rush DVOA and over the last 12 months has allowed a +0.6 DK Plus/Minus to opposing RBs.
Ingram (toe) missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday before having a limited practice on Friday. Monitor his status via the FantasyLabs News feed. He’s officially questionable.
RB – Tim Hightower
Ingram isn’t the only RB flourishing in the Saints backfield timeshare. Hightower is averaging 19.6 touches over his past five games. If Ingram were to miss this week or play in a limited capacity, Hightower could see a massive workload and return tremendous value. Our Player Models have Hightower with an 18.7-point ceiling on FD, where he has a FantasyLabs projected ownership of just two to four percent.
WR – Michael Thomas
After last week’s 9-108-2 stat line, Thomas is at the top of the receiver unit. Thomas is averaging 8.1 targets over his last nine games with seven TDs over that period. He leads the team in targets (84), receptions (65), receiving yards (789), and touchdowns (7). Running 56 percent of his routes from the left side of the formation, he should draw a lot of Nevin Lawson this week in coverage. Lawson is a top-24 PFF CB, so Thomas isn’t in a great spot, but we’re still talking about Brees’ No. 1 WR in a game that should be a shootout.
Thomas makes for a great option at both sites, especially FD, where he has exceeded expectations in 83 percent of his games:
WR – Brandin Cooks
After laying a goose egg last week with zero targets, Cooks has been bathed in the “squeaky wheel” narrative. In his own words, “Closed mouths don’t get fed.” Like Thomas, Cooks draws a tough assignment, as he’s expected to run most of his routes against Darius Slay — PFF’s fifth-ranked corner. Nevertheless, the Saints move Cooks all over the formation, so he should have some opportunities for targets sans Slay. Cooks has scored in four of his last seven games, but we have yet to see him garner double-digit targets this season.
WR – Willie Snead
Snead draws quite easily the best matchup of the three wideouts, as he’s slated to face Quandre Diggs in the slot. Diggs has allowed 0.36 fantasy points per route defended and 40 receptions on 44 targets in coverage (per Scott Barrett of PFF). Diggs has been a player to target heavily in DFS this season, and this week is no exception. The Lions have allowed some big games to slot receivers, giving up 20-plus DK points to Jamison Crowder, Stefon Diggs, and Eddie Royal. Snead presents spectacular value on DK, where he’s priced at $5,100, substantially cheaper than Cooks ($6,400) and Thomas ($6,900). He leads all Saints skill players in targets inside the 10-yard line in their last four games:
TE – Coby Fleener and Josh Hill
Hill has taken over the majority of snaps at TE, but he’s spending a large majority of them in line to block. Last week he ran 20 routes on 58 snaps, while Fleener ran 11 routes on just 18 snaps. Hill is coming of a season-high in targets (six), receptions (six), and receiving yards (74) and is dirt cheap. He’ll be a popular punt play, but Fleener is still hanging around with at least four targets in four of the Saints’ last five games. Detroit ranks 28th in pass DVOA against opposing TEs and is allowing the second-most DK points to the position. The timeshare makes it difficult to trust either player in cash games, but the great matchup makes both intriguing tournament flyers.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
