The Week 13 NFL Dashboard
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Giants at Steelers
The Steelers as six-point home favorites host the streaking Giants, who have won six games in a row. This game is tied for the third-highest total on the slate at 49 points. The Steelers are currently implied for 27.5 points; the Giants, 21.5 points.
New York Giants
Writer: Kelly McCann
QB – Eli Manning
Manning has not been good on the road this season. Per our Trends tool, Eli has averaged just 14.85 DraftKings points in his four road games this season while producing an ugly -2.62 DK Plus/Minus. The Steelers are slightly above league average against the pass, ranking 13th in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Above Average (DVOA). Pittsburgh has allowed the fifth-fewest passing touchdowns (13) and seventh-fewest fantasy points per game (15.1) to QBs.
Still, Manning could be forced to pass a lot in this game in order to keep up with the Steelers offense. He’s in consideration for guaranteed prize pools when stacked with Odell Beckham.
RB – Rashad Jennings
Jennings has at least 11 carries and two targets in five straight games. During that time he has averaged 19 touches per game. Volume is everything for running backs, and that’s especially true for Jennings. Per RotoViz:
Per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report, Rashad has gotten 57.94 percent of the Giants’ rushing share the past four games. He currently has a FantasyLabs projected ownership of zero to one percent in the Sunday Million on FanDuel, where he has an 82 percent Bargain Rating.
RB – Paul Perkins
After seemingly threatening to take away work from Jennings, Perkins has been out-snapped by a count of 131 to 94 the past four weeks. During that time, Jennings has out-carried Perkins by nearly 30 percentage points. Perkins has averaged just 5.65 DK points over the past four weeks and doesn’t seem likely to overtake Jennings anytime soon.
WR – Odell Beckham
Beckham’s 27.27 percent target share over the past four games is tied for the eighth-highest percentage in the NFL. In that time frame, he has averaged 9.75 targets per game and been targeted fewer than 10 times in a game just once. Beckham has scored at least 20.6 DK points in three of his last four games. Per our Matchups tool, Beckham will run many of his routes against cornerback Artie Burns, who is Pro Football Focus’ 65th-graded CB. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the Steelers are 30th in the NFL in pass DVOA against No. 1 WRs.
In what could be a fast-paced game in which he tries to keep up with Antonio Brown, Odell is enticingly in play.
WR – Sterling Shepard
After being targeted seven or more times in eight of his first 10 games this season, Shepard was targeted zero times last week. (He did, though, turn one rush attempt into 22 yards.) Apparently Manning apologized to the rookie for the lack of looks. This week Shepard is likely to see his fair share of targets, especially if the Giants trail. Before the zero-target debacle, Shepard had scored at least 14 DK points in three straight games. With a projected ownership of just two to four percent in DK’s Millionaire Maker, Shepard is an intriguing stacking partner for Manning.
WR – Victor Cruz
Cruz’s role in the Giants’ offense has steadily decreased: He has just a 5.59 percent share the team’s targets over the last four games. Cruz is an uninspiring GPP flyer at this point.
TE – Will Tye
Tye has been targeted 22 times in the past four games, averaging 5.8 FD points per game during that time. He has an 87 percent Bargain Rating on FD.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Writer: John Proctor
QB – Ben Roethlisberger
Big Ben comes back home, where he is averaging 337 yards per game and has thrown for at least three touchdowns in every game this year. Ben has 15 total touchdowns at home and has taken only five sacks there this year.
However, this week he faces a Giants defense that has really turned it up recently. The Giants have allowed only 16.4 points per game over their last five game. They have also accumulated 19 sacks in that span. On defense they are seventh in pass DVOA and are holding QBs to the seventh-fewest yards per pass attempt. Over the last 12 months, they’ve held QBs to -2.1 DK Opponent Plus/Minus.
While Ben at home is very hard to fade in GPPs, this tough matchup makes him a tournament-only option.
RB – Le’Veon Bell
Le’Veon has 100-plus rushing yards in two straight games and at least one TD in three straight. Last week was his first game in over four weeks in which he had fewer than nine targets. This week the Steelers are heavy favorites, and Le’Veon in wins this season is averaging 22.25 carries (compared to 15.5 in losses). If the Steelers trail, it’s nice to know that Le’Veon this season is seeing two more targets in losses than in wins.
Of course, the Giants aren’t an easy matchup for RBs, as they allow only 3.5 yards per carry, the third-lowest mark in the league. They also rank eighth in rush DVOA and fourth in pass DVOA against RBs.
While the matchup is not ideal, Bell is impossible not to like at home with a high team total. He will see the targets if the Steelers trail and carries if they are winning. Bell has the highest RB projection this week and is the No. 2 FD and DK RB in the Levitan Player Models.
RB – DeAngelo Williams
There is optimism from the Steelers camp that Williams will return this week — not that it matters. With Le’Veon handling over 90 percent of the RB work, Williams will not be a fantasy-relevant option as long as Bell is healthy.
WR – Antonio Brown
Brown has 406 receiving yards and five touchdowns since Big Ben returned from injury four games ago. Brown has only three games this season with fewer than 10 targets and is averaging just under 7.5 receptions per week.
Brown draws a tough matchup this week against CBs Janoris Jenkins and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. When Brown is on the outside he will likely be shadowed by Jenkins, PFF’s No. 11 coverage CB. When Brown moves into the slot to avoid Jenkins, he will then be covered by DRC, PFF’s No. 9 coverage CB.
However, this Giants passing defense has sprung leaks at times: Terrelle Pryor, for instance, had a big game last week. While Jenkins and DRC have played well, it’s impossible to ignore Antonio at home with Big Ben and a big Vegas total. Brown is the highest-rated DK WR in the Levitan Model.
WR – Eli Rogers
After three straight games of five or more targets, Rogers saw only two targets in Week 12. This is a testament to the fact that the Steelers offense flows through Brown and Bell and everyone else is just ancillary. Rogers also played on only 50 percent of the snaps last week, as the Steelers used a run-heavy approach. Rogers is difficult to trust.
WR – Cobi Hamilton
With three receptions for 16 yards on six targets over the last two weeks, Hamilton is definitely not as good as the musical.
TE – Ladarius Green
While Jesse James has played more snaps than Ladarius over the last three weeks, Green is clearly the preferred passing option. On a third of the snaps, Green saw three times the targets, turning them into two long receptions of 35 and 32 yards last week. It’s possible that Green could even become the deep threat that the Steelers need after the untimely death of Sammie Coates’ hand. That said, he’s averaging three targets per game. That’s rough.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
