The Week 13 NFL Dashboard
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Chiefs at Falcons
The Falcons host the Chiefs as 3.5-point favorites. The Chiefs are currently implied to score 22.75 points; the Falcons, 26.25.
Kansas City Chiefs
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Alex Smith
As always seems to be the case, Smith has a solid matchup, this time against a Falcons defense that is 21st against the pass in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) and allowing QBs to score 22.9 DraftKings points per game — the most in the league. Of course, without any sort of rushing production this year, Smith has been dismal:
Smith’s not fun to roster, but he should probably be in consideration given his matchup, price, and FantasyLabs ownership projection of zero to one percent in the Sunday Million. He has actually managed to reach salary-based expectations over the past two weeks.
RB – Spencer Ware
After a strong start to the season, Ware has faded in recent weeks, likely do to the emergence of wide receiver Tyreek Hill and the lack of downfield passing with WR Jeremy Maclin out. Per our Trends tool, in the five games in which Hill has seen five-plus targets, Ware has yet to hit his salary-based expectations (via our Plus/Minus metric):
Still, Ware is the undisputed feature back going against a Falcons defense that is 26th in rush DVOA and has allowed the second-most fantasy points to RBs this season. He certainly has the upside to swing a guaranteed prize pool. At the same time, he hasn’t had more than three targets in a game since Week 4 and is a risky cash play.
RB – Charcandrick West
West played 38.8 percent of the snaps in Week 12 but still cannot be trusted, as he was out-touched by Ware 19-3.
WR – Jeremy Maclin
Maclin (groin) has been declared out.
Without Maclin, the Chiefs’ so-called aerial attack has been very stagnant, even if Hill and tight end Travis Kelce have benefited from the extra targets.
WR – Tyreek Hill
Tyreek the FREAK is one of the most athletic players in the league, and he’s basically Smith’s perfect complement, since he can take short passes — he has an average depth of target of 8.3 yards over the past four games — and then turn them into big plays. Even if Maclin plays in this game, there’s a lot to like about Hill, one of which is his elite return skills. He’s always a threat to score on a kick return, which he did last week. Hill owns our highest Projected Plus/Minus among DK WRs.
Per John Proctor’s WR/CB Matchups article, “Brian Poole, who will be covering the slot full time, ran a 4.49-second 40-yard dash at his pro day. Tyreek ran his in 4.25.” Advantage, Freak.
WR – Albert Wilson / Chris Conley
Over the last four weeks, Wilson has 25 targets and two TDs but only 92 yards. Conley has 19 targets, ‘good’ for 94 yards. These guys matter, but in a bigger sense . . . they don’t matter.
TE – Travis Kelce
The Falcons rank 11th against TEs in pass DVOA, but Kelce has the 14th-highest target share in the league over his last four games: 25.87 percent. He’s the highest-rated DK TE in our Cash Model and is an option in all formats. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on both sites and has just a five to eight percent projected ownership in the Millionaire Maker.
Atlanta Falcons
Writer: Tyler Buecher
QB – Matt Ryan
Ryan and the Falcons enter this matchup red hot, with Ryan throwing 10 touchdown passes in his last four games. He now gets a great matchup with the Chiefs, who have struggled defending the pass. They are allowing the ninth-most passing touchdowns, the sixth-most DK points, and a +4.6 DK Opponent Plus/Minus to QBs. They just allowed a 368-yard, three-touchdown performance to Denver QB Trevor Siemian. Our Player Models have Ryan with a 30.6-point ceiling projection, and he leads all QBs with nine Pro Trends.
With so many great QB options this week, Ryan could be massively under-owned. He has a FantasyLabs projected ownership of just two to four percent.
RB – Devonta Freeman
As a big home favorite, Freeman is in an ideal spot. The Chiefs have been fairly sound against RBs, allowing 4.3 yards per carry, but they are allowing a league-high five receiving TDs to RBs. Tevin Coleman‘s recent return to the lineup has lowered Freeman’s weekly ceiling, but he was still able to score twice last week on 18 touches. Freeman’s steady volume throughout the season — 17.6 touches per game — keeps him in play for both cash games and GPPs.
RB – Tevin Coleman
Returning to action last week, Coleman now has seven TDs in eight games. He doesn’t get enough consistent volume to use in cash games, but he’s a strong GPP play given his TD upside. He has an 86 percent FD Bargain Rating.
WR – Julio Jones
Everything points towards this being a Julio week. The Chiefs allow the third-most receptions, second-most receiving yards, and the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. They have allowed six different receivers to eclipse 20-plus fantasy points. As noted in this week’s WR/CB Matchup, offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan is adept at moving Julio around the formation, and this week he’s likely to use Julio against Phillip Gaines, who ranks as PFF’s third-worst cover cornerback. Julio has scored at least 20 DK points in six of eleven games this season, and he leads the league in receiving yards (1,140). Stacking Julio with the low-owned Ryan could be an intriguing way to differentiate lineups this week.
WR – Mohamed Sanu
At $4,400 on DK, Sanu offers some very intriguing upside in this matchup. Sanu has had some inconsistent target totals lately (8, 2, 7, 10) but he does have a 24-point ceiling projection on DK, and he is expected to match up in the slot against Steven Nelson, PFF’s 69th-ranked CB. Sanu’s affordable price tag offers some unique avenues to roster construction.
WR – Taylor Gabriel
It may have taken 12 weeks, but Taylor Gabriel now has his own paragraph in this weekly column. Gabriel’s lightning-fast speed was on full display last week, as he scored from 35 and 25 yards out and wove through Arizona’s secondary with ease. Gabriel hasn’t seen more than five targets in a game, but he proved last week that he’s a threat to score anytime the ball is in his hands, evidenced by his five TDs over the last four games.
TE – Austin Hooper
Hooper had a rather quiet 2-8-0 stat line last week in Atlanta’s 38-19 blowout of Arizona. Hooper is cheap this week at $4,600 FD, but Kansas City is holding opposing TEs to a -3.2 Plus/Minus and is yet to allow a TE to score double-digit fantasy points. Averaging just four targets over his past four games, Hooper isn’t someone to trust this week.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
