The Week 13 NFL Dashboard
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Buccaneers at Chargers
The Buccaneers travel west to San Diego this week in a matchup against the Chargers that Vegas has projected for a game total of 47.5 points. San Diego is a four-point home favorite implied to score 25.5 points. Tampa Bay’s implied for 22 points.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Writer: Tyler Buecher
QB – Jameis Winston
Over the past three weeks we’ve seen Winston be serviceable but unspectacular. Outings of 17.0, 17.4, 19.5 FanDuel points aren’t too exciting, and unfortunately the schedule doesn’t give much of a break this week at San Diego. The Chargers rank ninth against the pass in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Replacement (DVOA) and have held QBs to a -0.3 FD Opponent Plus/Minus. Only six of the QBs to play against them this year have thrown multiple TDs. Winston’s isn’t a poor option, but he doesn’t seem likely to have a big game, especially given TB’s low implied total.
RB – Doug Martin
Over the past two weeks, Martin has seen 25 and 27 touches, resuming the bellcow role he had earlier this season. Playing as road dogs, the Bucs could be forced to pass out of necessity, which could mean that Martin sees an uptick in receiving production. The Chargers have allowed the second-most receptions and fifth-most receiving yards to opposing RBs. San Diego ranks 13th in rush DVOA but is allowing the fourth-most rushing touchdowns. That combination of TD potential and receiving upside on DK makes Martin a player to consider strongly in guaranteed prize pools as an option who won’t be especially chalky.
RB – Jacquizz Rodgers
If Martin isn’t used in heavily receiving role, Tampa Bay could look towards Rodgers (foot), who practiced fully on Friday and is expected to play this weekend. Rodgers has excelled as a pass catcher and could carve out a substantial role in his return.
WR – Mike Evans
Evans’ massive target volume this season has made him a nearly matchup-proof option. He has scored a touchdown and/or had 100-plus receiving yards in eight of 11 games and continues to exceed his salary-based expectations:
Per our Matchups tool, Evans will run most of his routes against cornerback Casey Hayward. As noted by John Proctor in his WR/CB Matchups article, Hayward is Pro Football Focus’ No. 5 cover CB, but he has a massive size disadvantage: Evans has six inches and 40 pounds on Hayward, which should be a problem in the red zone. San Diego has allowed the third-most red zone trips to opposing offenses, and Evans leads the Bucs in red-zone opportunities (15). He possesses the second-highest ceiling projection (27 points) among all receivers in our Player Models.
WR – Adam Humphries
Humphries continues to get snaps and little else. He had just one target last week and has just one double-digit fantasy outing over his last eight games.
WR – Cecil Shorts and Russell Shepard
Shorts isn’t getting as many snaps as he once was. Shepard has just five catches combined over his last two games.
Ring, ring. The dictionary just called. It wants back it’s definition of the word “Irrelevant.”
TE – Cameron Brate
The San Diego defense’s aforementioned high red-zone trips make Brate an interesting option to pursue if you’re looking for an inexpensive TE. Brate has 12 red-zone targets this season and has scored in three of Tampa Bay’s last five games. Brate’s been a touchdown-or-bust player over the course of the season, but he has a 20.3-point ceiling on DK along with seven Pro Trends.
San Diego Chargers
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Philip Rivers
With the the emergence of Melvin Gordon, Rivers doesn’t have the upside he once did, but he’s thrown for multiple touchdowns in four straight weeks. The Bucs rank 10th in pass DVOA, but Rivers has the sixth-highest rating in our DraftKings Tournament Model at just two to four projected ownership. Rivers some potential as a contrarian GPP play, but he’s probably someone to avoid in cash games.
RB – Melvin Gordon
Gordon was largely a disappointment last week in a great spot, and he has a much tougher matchup in Week 13 with defensive tackle Gerald McCoy expected to play for the Bucs. He’s one of the best defensive tackles in the league, ranking as PFF’s No. 5 interior defender, and he’s matching up against a Chargers offensive line that doesn’t have a guard graded higher than 67th by PFF. That said, tough matchups may be overrated when a RB is a home favorite, since opportunity is everything.
Gordon is still seeing massive usage at the goal line and is tied for the second-most opportunities inside the 10-yard line over the past four games. He has the second highest RB Projected Plus/Minus on the slate.
WR – Tyrell Williams
We love the Gazelle, but Williams (shoulder) is dealing with an injury that has caused him to miss practice on Wednesday and Thursday. He had a limited practice on Friday and is officially questionable. He expects to play, but his range of motion could be limited. He’s one of the league’s best WRs over the last couple of months, smashing salary-based expectations in four of his last five games while ranking eighth in yards after the catch this season. Per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report, Tyrell has the 15th-highest target share over his last four games.
WR – Travis Benjamin
Benjamin played sparingly in his Week 12 return with just one catch on two targets, but he could be expected to do more if Williams’ shoulder injury limits his ability to play.
WR – Dontrelle Inman
If Williams or Benjamin is limited, Inman could be an unreal value at $5200 on FD, where he holds a 97 percent Bargain Rating. Per PFF, he has the week’s 14th-most advantageous WR matchup as he faces CB Vernon Hargreaves.
TE – Antonio Gates
After being targeted at least nine times in each of his last four games and scoring three TDs over that time frame, Gates put up a total goose egg last week. He wasn’t even targeted. Thanks, man.
The Bucs are fifth in pass DVOA against TEs, so the spot isn’t great, but Gates still has TD equity that puts him in play for cash games at $5,300 FD. Plus, the Chargers could be motivated to get Gates the ball near the goal line, as he’s just three TDs shy of owning the all-time TE record outright.
It wouldn’t be all that surprising to see the remaining scores come in bunches. Per our Trends tool, home favorite FD TEs with comparable salaries and projections typically perform above salary-based expectations:
He is rated as the No. 4 FD TE in our Cash Model with a 91 percent Bargain Rating.
TE – Hunter Henry
Everyone wants to play Gates, narrative street and all, but Henry could be the perfect leverage play at $2,900 DK. Gordon could easily get three touchdowns but quietly Henry has remained a threat where it matters most:
He is currently the highest-rated TE in our Tournament Model and projected to be zero to one percent owned in GPPs.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
